jm1220

Ended up wetter than the split-shafting models had but thankfully nothing like what we would’ve seen if Isaias remained a coherent system like Ida. I think it’s a given the next 4-5 months will be stormy here so time to get used to it. Hopefully 2-3 of them in winter can be snow.

TS Rachel phasing in with the western trough pumped the ridge over the Plains.

Definitely some heavy rain inland on the E upslope flow.

Some models hinting at a shaft/split-screw area between heavy rain in PA and offshore. Should be decent rain NW of us given upslope moist E flow.

If we had gusts over 115, IMO it was definitely Cat 2 as it came ashore.

Yep I’m glad the N Gulf finally caught something of a break with this one. Laura, Michael, Ida etc were horrific and broke the pattern of rapidly weakening N Gulf storms as they come in. Of course 2 are dead and hundreds of thousands are suffering with power out and other damage so hopefully things are running again soon.

N Gulf hurricanes that come this way sometimes “wake back up” over our area like Ida which caused more deaths here than anywhere but this won’t be one of them. You can already see it’s sheared apart and won’t be a very coherent system here. Probably a general 1-2” rain like most models are showing.

NHC had it at 105mph when it came ashore, so it wasn't major.

What was expected ended up happening just a few hours late, which NHC mentioned as a risk for more intense landfall. My guess is a low end Cat 2 verified in the end. We’ll see in the AM how the damage looks. The surge I’m sure was severe but may have missed Destin just to the east so maybe a slight “win” there.

115–120mph velocities not far offshore south of Pensacola. It’s elevated where the radar beam samples it but still rough impacts incoming shortly.

Yep, I'm looking out my window at it 1000 miles away.

Isaias outflow clouds

Yep, southern eyewall clearly being eaten away. But the north side is still clearly in beast mode and trying as best it can to wrap around.

GOM hasn't had any significant tropical activity this year so the waters are quite warm. That helps.

It won’t be that coherent a system by the time it gets up here. Shear will eventually get to it. I agree that these big N Gulf systems usually have a Part 2 big impact area way further north like Camille 1969 and Ida but that’s when it can remain a coherent consolidated system. Up here it looks more like a strung out frontal system.