jm1220

It’s gonna be a good week for us other than the Ambrose Jet making it north of the LIE. Probably low 80s most days on the southerly wind but no nasty sandblaster like on the beaches.

Gusting to 30 at JFK now. Barrier islands stuck in the low 60s. What heat?

Jones Beach water temp is still 52-53. That’ll put a hard stop on any temp climb on the south shore with that kind of S wind. Probably a full on Ambrose Jet day or two thrown in. Even here might be hard to get much above 80.

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day.

We’ve had mid to upper 90s heat waves in May before, that’s not unprecedented. It also might be for just half this subforum since a lot of it looks southerly wind driven. Maybe we get another crazy Ambrose Jet day or two in this and the immediate south shore can’t get above 70.

Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here.

He posted during and before the 2/24 blizzard, we even named the thread/blizzard for him lol. He said he just generally doesn’t come by here anymore unless there’s a major threat of some kind.

RRFS had a good showing in the first Dec clipper. Other than that it seemed forgettable.

A strong or super Nino ensures there’s lots of mild Pacific air flooding in. But it will also be moist and we won’t have the endless cutters/SWFE we sometimes see in Nina’s. It’ll be southern stream driven and we have to hope to time one or two of them with cold enough air. We all know what happened in Nino seasons like 2002-03, 2009-10, 1982-83, 2015-16 etc. If only 2/6/10 could’ve edged north a little more.

Looking around this area there’s lots of tree damage I assume from the winter storms.

We need one or two loaded up El Niño southern jet setups to make it this far north with cold air. We don’t want too much blocking to squash everything south.

Same. That salvaged it being a half decent event. The initial rain barely wet the ground.

Some light rain here but can see the radar fading to crap. Probably won’t even be enough to get the pollen off my car.

This time of year when we can still get large synoptic scale events you want to rack up the rain totals. Soon we’ll be relying on daytime convection and 95% of the time that favors inland.

JFK gusting to 41 this hour. I'm sure a sandblaster on the beaches. Glorious spring on LI. Farmingdale now gusting to 45.