jm1220

Probably another 60-90min where I am. Not sure where you are but maybe another hour for the rest of Suffolk so by 4.

Probably a good idea to shovel right as it goes to sleet. In the dryslot models are showing some areas of freezing drizzle. That will make it all congeal into concrete.

Hopefully I have a couple hours left here in which case I might make it to 9-10” before sleet. Maybe between everything end up with a foot.

It’s hitting one of its snags.

6” even on my deck. Dumping.

Maybe hitting a few snags again-it’s headed more N than NE which some models hinted at-that it would charge N through NJ before coming NE into the city and LI. It’s absolutely dumping now so however long we can keep this going would be awesome.

We’re enjoying the snow but also analyzing the storm. Take the bickering to banter or PM.

I lived through that VD 2007 storm in central PA and it was dumping sleet at maybe 10-12 degrees. What happens at 750 or 800mb is irrrelevant to the surface. If there's strong southerly flow at those levels because of a primary and 700/850 lows in a bad place, those levels will warm up and it will sleet.

I'm not buying that with how fast it's advancing, I think pings start in Staten Island and the Rockaways in an hour or so but question is does it charge right in or hit snags/retreat for a time.

HRRR again showing sleet coming into the area but then being fought/pushed back for a while. This idea will either be the hero of the day or fall flat on its face.

Yep, proof for all time that what happens at 750mb is irrelevant to the surface. SWFE are what they are.

You can see the lull in the echos over S NJ where just before the sleet takes over. The warm air will advance during any lull. We want that to fill in before it gets here.

Just under 5”.

It hits a snag here or there but yes. It’ll be on our door by 3pm, then question is will it come through or hit more snags.

Newest HRRR continues to have the sleet line fight back and forth as it gets to NYC around 21z. Sleet finally really takes over around dark. If that's true could be big, and NYC gets over a foot.