jm1220

Stop using kuchera maps for the love of God.

Getting there. It's occluding early still for a huge hit but we're seeing the steps we need.

Wow, 6-7 members due S of LI? Wouldn't surprise me if in a couple days we're praising the heavens for the kicker coming at it.

Was a very tough storm to forecast when you got into the nitty gritty and with the higher QPF than predicted. I didn’t think anyone in NYC or LI would reach 12” in this type of storm and I was wrong. It’s a humbling hobby.

Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic.

This is why we don't jump off bridges 120+ hours out with as fragile a setup as this.

NWS mets actually analyze the data and don’t flip flop and panic like a bunch of weather board weenies.

We don’t need massive changes lol. EPS getting less impressive is a bummer but we really do just need some small changes in the timing of the upper low cutting off/further NE and the kicker being a little slower and spaced apart from our storm. It’s not like last winter where we had a few phantom MECS runs we all wanted to believe but based on the pattern we knew it was bogus.

It improved somewhat from 6z. Anyway I wouldn’t write it off especially for coastal areas until Thursday.

And oh man do we suffer in this hobby.

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go.

And considering there’s almost always a northernmost fluff band with these, this might be good on its own for warning snow into NYC.

We don’t need much. I wouldn’t be discounting anything until probably Thu night.

We can afford baby steps at this lead time.

Yep, we might be singing its praises later this week if the coastal storm development gets itself together so we’re not tracking this into NYC. The ridge axis here doesn’t scream way offshore track to me.