jm1220

Hopefully we can make something happen when we still have this cold. Endless suppressed garbage gets old quick.

And NYC should be a few inches higher, the 2 Dec storms were pretty blatant under measurements at Central Park. But I agree, disappointment tomorrow aside it’s been a great winter so far.

Still damn cold but too much of a breeze to have a chance at low single digits last night.

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger.

Down to 6.

Looks just lame altogether other than a 75 mile wide strip near the Tidewater and E NC. 0.3” liquid as snow for Raleigh is notable and I think a warning event down there but nothing historic.

A bit of a breeze is kicking up so it hasn’t gotten below 16-17 so far. Until that breeze stops the bottom won’t really drop out on temps.

Doubting it’ll even be that much without a significant NW shift. I don’t see anything to support anything getting west of Montauk maybe. Today was a kick in the crotch.

It’ll come back down. Models are even barely grazing the outer Cape now. Ouch.

Take the stuff about the media to banter. I agree it’s annoying and meant for clicks/views but the political rabbit hole we always go down is worse.

I agree, just get this out of here at this point and move on. There’ll be more chances before the cold lets up.

Ensembles are better at longer lead time to get an idea of the likelihood of a storm, i.e. 40 or 50%. We definitely were in the game a few days ago given the setup. But they smooth things out too much because of outliers and lower resolution so closer in we use the op models and it’s clear now there are a bunch of negative factors getting in the way of a big storm outcome that they pick up on.

Whole lotta meh. Like 6 different lows all forming different heavy precip areas and it’s all just a discombobulated strung out disaster.

My car thermometer said 8 when I left for work this morning. Tonight might get down close to zero if we stay clear and calm wind.

Yeah we need consistent NW trends at this point, not wishy washy a little jump NW then back SE. At 0z if we don’t see that then I’m calling it dead.