jm1220
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About jm1220
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I agree, we need pronounced shifts in all the major guidance at this point toward a phase. We're 48 hours out.
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It's such a fragile setup. Maybe the 10 pieces can assemble themselves this time to make something happen but there's been countless times since 2019 where it didn't or hit somewhere else. But there's the when I'm away rule in place like in Jan 2016.
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I'm in Boston until Monday so it's guaranteed to hit NYC/LI when I'm away. And make for a disaster when I'm driving home. Looks here like it did at home a week ago roughly with the snowcover.
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Maybe maybe maybe. Ugggh if this ends up a bare bones scrape or close miss. Such a fragile setup but you'd think at this point the models are starting to have a clue.
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When other models jump onboard tonight I’ll give it some thought. I wish Jeff B didn’t post it. Of course he knew it would take off like crazy.
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I have that shield thingy next to my name along with IrishRob and Forky. We’re the traitors like on the show. The Monday storm to me is still very low probability until I see other models jump onboard, it’s very fragile and we’ve seen all kinds of possible phasing setups fail over the last few winters so why would this be any different. We’re going to warm up for a while mid to late month but we have to see if the MJO can throw us a bone and allow for colder conditions to return at the end of the month. There can still be snow if we can time that with a storm.
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I can delete posts and pin/lock threads. Guess you can call me a rent-a-moderator.
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WeatherGeek asked me to close it.
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Accounting for the under measurements Central Park is probably around 25”. So if no more snow, would be slightly below normal. Central PA having yet another awful snow season-Williamsport at 17”. My average is probably around 35” and I have 30.5”. I’d still say it’s likely I make it to normal even if it’s scraping a couple of small events together but it’s a disappointment we couldn’t make any real snow happen since 1/25 and nothing really on the horizon.
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Some south facing lawns/hills have some bare spots but as expected this is a very resilient snowpack because of how much water is in it.
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As you wish.
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Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought.
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The front end on 12/5 produced for almost everyone north of I-195 and there was so much optimism for the next day when it became the big coastal storm, but like you said it was like Swiss cheese with winners and losers. In Long Beach it was okay to decent but it could’ve been way better had the Swiss cheese holes not happened.
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Yep I was thinking I’d end up with maybe 4-5” after so much was wasted to sleet/rain and that saved it.
