jm1220
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You want the snow to pile up-obviously you want snow. You want the snow to stay around-you want sleet.
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Yep, the snow melt we’ve had is largely from the sun at a slightly higher angle every day.
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Trucks were still moving the snow piles around this AM in the parking lots. Like I said this snow would have a disproportionate impact because of the sleet driven into it making it a lot denser.
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A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely.
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Time for a refresher for the black ice piles in the parking lots.
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Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though.
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I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling.
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I plan to be in Boston from 2/13-16 so it’ll be a guaranteed miss or slop. You’re welcome!
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Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out.
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March 2018 was epic. Not calling for that again of course but I’ll take a heavy snow event in March to pad the stats even if it melts faster.
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With the strat warming event forecasted, this has the feel of a “she’s not gonna let us out” winter. Hopefully March can bring us high end storm opportunities.
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Always impressive seeing the Great South Bay almost totally frozen over. The Long Beach Super Bowl splash has been postponed to March. I don’t remember that ever happening before. We did it in 2011 when there was still a lot of snow around from the 1/27 storm.
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Down to 10.
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During any Nina, eventually the late winter warmup arrives. We'll see if this new strat warming can make for a colder March like in 2018, but in any Nina here the clock is always ticking to get our snow in Dec or Jan. Last year we had a decent Feb SWFE, 2018 had the epic March. We'll see what happens.
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The late Dec event ended up on the low end of expectations here despite no sleet and of course 1/25 there was plenty of sleet here too. Suppression sucks and the lack of real opportunity for snow going forward sucks too but we've at least capitalized on a good window during cold enough air and got the snow to stick around. The last three good for shit winters couldn't make that happen. Probably the best we can ask for until the perma-Nina, warm western tropical Pacific regime changes. Honestly today felt great outside for a change and I'll welcome a warm period if it won't snow. Maybe end of Feb or March will bring more snow chances. We know how March 2018 turned out-not expecting that again of course but maybe one or two decent snow events before the end.
