jm1220

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution.

As always with any major storm there are a lot of moving parts and pieces that have to work out. It’s still wait and see for the next couple days and we shouldn’t overreact either way. Of course some will lol.

Just want to emphasize again that snow ratios aren’t determined by surface temps when it’s below freezing. It’s much more determined by the snow growth and to some extent winds. Strong winds break the flakes apart which lead to lower ratios and it’s quite possible to have very cold surface temps in the teens but bad ratios because of bad snow growth-sand or needle flakes. You want saturation and lift in the atmosphere layer between -12 and -18C, that creates dendrite flakes that pile up efficiently. I’ve seen it happen several times where it would snow at like 10 degrees but sand flakes that accumulate like molasses.

Coming back tomorrow, would love for a MECS in the teens on the doorstep.

I purposely stay away other then for an occasion because I buy half the store and weigh 5 pounds more a week later haha.

I’m in Italy right now and not quite as good but close second. They put a lot of effort into it there (Uncle Giuseppe’s)

It’s 33-it’ll be tough to do much with lighter rates.

Glad there’ll be snow on the ground when I come home.

Looks like a nice event shaping up for you guys. Enjoy! I’ll be back on Wed night.

I started at Bill Evans then Tri State then here. Over 20 years doing this now lol.

Good luck for Sunday-it’ll be a decent event because I’m away lol. Hopefully between today and tomorrow something for everyone.

Yep hence the other problem. Might be light snow falling for a while but marginal temps means maybe little/no accum in the city, heavier rates and a more consolidated system means better cold air on northerly winds. Likely better where there's some elevation and away from the city but keep expectations in check.

Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general.

Looks like strung out crap, not consolidated. Hopefully there’s some light snow from that but that’s what we’ve been getting over and over again the last few winters.

I’m away, glad I’m not missing much.