jm1220

Italy was amazing. The snow is great of course but this cold hits when you get used to 60s.

I mean look-we have 10+ inches of hardened snow on the ground and huge piles in every parking lot that will last into March, and bays/rivers all freezing over. If this one misses there will be another. It’s as deep winter here as you could ever ask for.

He used to live in Boston.

Not at all. It’s a very volatile setup where small changes aloft can result in significant changes at the surface. That said there are larger features that aren’t favorable-the kicker coming from the Dakotas, early closing off and positive tilt. We need one or two of those to change around soon.

Good sign. But tonight I’d say we need consistent positive trends to start. We all know the negatives-kicker diving SE, 6 different unconsolidated lows, positive tilt, closes off early. One or two of those need to trend in a positive direction at least.

Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable.

If the overall setup doesn’t allow for a NW trend it won’t. Last winter it sure didn’t help with all the suppressed crap we saw. Not saying this one won’t but if the setup is that it closes off and occludes early, 4 lows develop off Cape Hatteras and it’s too positive tilt, it can only trend N so far.

Trough induces like 5 lows to develop too as it gets to the VA/NC capes so it can’t congeal and gets booted east. That might be the model trying to resolve a low center or it might be real-Jan 2022 suffered from a double low dragging everything east. Hopefully by tonight 0z we start to see this turn around, otherwise I think the fat lady’s starting to sing. If this one doesn’t happen I’m confident there will be other threats.

Some models are kinda trending to bands of snow getting west as the low spins and rots. Better than zippo.

Having the trough start with such a positive tilt isn’t helpful either. Although if anything the ridge axis in the west is getting even further west.

The models have hopefully improved since then but given how little has to change we’re all still in the game, admittedly eastern areas more. It’s not like last winter where we saw a few random weenie runs that we all knew deep down were BS because of the raging Pacific pattern that would destroy the setup.

We can definitely get 75-100 miles NW out of this system at this lead time. People giving up are crazy. We do want to see consistent positive trends soon but even the most likely outcome now gives eastern LI a few inches.

Have to think some system gets us before this cold regime really lets up even if this one doesn’t. Maybe we can get lucky with another clipper.

Got down to 11 here. Fri night I think has a chance to get down to 0 (not in the city).

I’d want to see a positive trend by tonight 0z to be confident of a major hit here. Good that with even a track SE of the benchmark some snow makes it to the coast/city as it unravels. As others mention this has to occlude later and upper low track further north.