jm1220

People need to stop using those maps and look at soundings to see if there are good chances for high ratios. If in doubt use 10-1. You want a saturated -12 to -18C layer and strong lift. Surface temps don’t determine ratios if you’re below freezing.

If we get 12”+ from heavy dumping snow on the front end and an hour of some sleet at the end I don’t think anybody would complain and if you do you need help. Like I said before our bigger 2020-21 storms mixed at the end.

Yikes. At the airport about to head home, currently 5 at the closest station to my house.

I’ll be perfectly fine with mixing for an hour at the end after a huge front ender thump. Other than the Super Bowl 2021 event all of our major events that winter mixed at some point. The 2/1/21 storm dumped 15-16” IMBY but a small part of it was sleet/rain.

If there’s less confluence and a full phase we could absolutely see an outcome like this where the primary goes well west of us. In that situation the usual caveats about SWFE apply: I-90 corridor is favored for all snow, here hopefully we get the heavy wall of snow before any warm air aloft comes in. But if you have closed mid level lows going west of you it will eventually happen.

If the temp is 30-31 with the heavy freezing rain absolutely-a lot will just run off. When it gets below about 28 or so much more of it will accrete.

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution.

As always with any major storm there are a lot of moving parts and pieces that have to work out. It’s still wait and see for the next couple days and we shouldn’t overreact either way. Of course some will lol.

Just want to emphasize again that snow ratios aren’t determined by surface temps when it’s below freezing. It’s much more determined by the snow growth and to some extent winds. Strong winds break the flakes apart which lead to lower ratios and it’s quite possible to have very cold surface temps in the teens but bad ratios because of bad snow growth-sand or needle flakes. You want saturation and lift in the atmosphere layer between -12 and -18C, that creates dendrite flakes that pile up efficiently. I’ve seen it happen several times where it would snow at like 10 degrees but sand flakes that accumulate like molasses.

Coming back tomorrow, would love for a MECS in the teens on the doorstep.

I purposely stay away other then for an occasion because I buy half the store and weigh 5 pounds more a week later haha.

I’m in Italy right now and not quite as good but close second. They put a lot of effort into it there (Uncle Giuseppe’s)

It’s 33-it’ll be tough to do much with lighter rates.

Glad there’ll be snow on the ground when I come home.

Looks like a nice event shaping up for you guys. Enjoy! I’ll be back on Wed night.