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The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.

14.5" in Lowell. That was a great winter for me

That was a La Nina year too when sirens went off for a productive winter.

Anything under 24" is called "futile" by some snow weenies lol. I would assume there were some winters that received nearly nothing. I wonder if they used the term, "global warming" back then.

Other than a couple mini events in January Boston had nada. Blue Hill did good with that October nor'easter...got 6" of paste. I remember having to walk a mile up to the observatory that morning due to downed trees lol. Blue Hill actually set a monthly snowfall record of 8.5" for that October.

Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now:

Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now.

Models trended slightly east overnight which doesn't surprise me. DFW was on the western fringe to begin with but still plenty of time for models to change:

Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well.

Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain.

Dynamics are pretty good looking at soundings if you wetbulb you may be able to get a least a couple inches out of it. Stark north-south gradient with this system.

I wouldn't expect much more unfortunately. GEFS has that mid-level trough pretty much locked in at this point, leaving most of northern AR out of the mix but central MO could get some good snow out of this with a nice 850mb frontoband set to sweep through there.

I like what it is doing as well and agree with it to some degree, considering the continuous push of warm water east however is this model taking into assumption more warm water pushing east from Maritimes in conjunction with a modeled weakening of trade winds?

There was some considerable low level dry air associated with this anafront which gobbled up a lot of what little QPF there was to begin with. That, along with a more pronounced warm nose than modeled was the nail in the coffin for any wishful snow chances here.

You think that developing EWB over Nino 4 will put a bit of a damper on the anomalous warm water pushing east? I still think it'll be enough to warm Nino 3.4 but maybe not quite as much as we think? I still think CFS forecast may be underdoing it a bit but that's just my opinion.

NW and W of the Metroplex I think it's certainly possible but as you get further east I think that risk drops off considerably. 12Z GFS give Stephenville and Granbury a brief shot at some wet snow overnight tonight but I wouldn't expect anything more than a coating. Western Fort Worth I think even has a slim chance to see some mixing for a brief window.

Meh. If that happens precip will likely get shunted further south so it wouldn't matter. I think even if your scenario panned out lower levels will still be too warm unless it miraculously wet-bulbs to 0C.

Hey @raindancewx a bit off topic but does La Nina generally correlate with an increased -EPO frequency since La Nina's usually result in the jet stream "buckling" over the Gulf of Alaska? Would the opposite be true for El Ninos (+EPO)?

You mean zero chance of snow north of I-20? Going to be all rain here...

Also just another observation the EWB over Nino 4 may start to erode the warmer waters as shown in the loop above which may keep downwelling KW in check which remains to be seen.

Appears another downwelling KW is initializing in Nino 4. Assuming it sustains its anomalous warmth and movement east could see a warmup in Nino 3.4 in the next month or so however a bit of upwelling is lurking in Nino 3.4 so bears watching to see how much this downwelling KW sustains its warmth as it interacts with potentially cooler waters. Not expecting that upwelling KW to surface until it reaches Nino 3.

At least the ensemble charts appear to latch onto the synoptic setup so I think it's safe to say we have the stage set for some winter weather in the Southern Plains depending on where you are.

-EPO/+PNA combo looks pretty good just depends how far south it allows that cold air to spill. North Texas could be in for some FZRA if the QPF is there to support it on Sunday PM/Monday AM but GFS looks a bit dry with most of the precipitation to the east (actually where you are)...but it is the 264 hour of the GFS so we all know how little weight to put in that.

BUFKIT is my go-to for forecasting wind gusts. I use MOS as a secondary source to corroborate my train of thought. With BUFKIT, I always select "Momentum Transfer" and click '10' (which stands for 10mb). The 1, 10, 20, 30 represent the thickness of a "barrier" layer in mb, where 10mb is suggested based on my experience in the field. When you select Momentum Transfer, the bottom number is the mean mixed layer and the top number is the wind at the top of the mixed layer. I generally use the bottom number (mean mixed layer) to give me a ballpark of what the wind gusts will be, and I use the top number only sparingly because most of the time that gust never mixes down to the surface since it is so high up. I refer to the top number more as a "worst case scenario" gust. There are other things you need to take into consideration as well when forecasting wind gusts such as cloud cover and strength of temperature advection (mainly CAA) just to name a couple but generally the values BUFKIT puts out are pretty good.

@raindancewx I tried clicking the link for your seasonal forecast but it's not loading? I tried Chrome & IE. Is it subscription based only?