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It's Always Sunny

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Everything posted by It's Always Sunny

  1. It's Always Sunny
    SPC thinking there could be some severe potential in the Metroplex up through OKC on Day 4. Appears to be a nighttime potential:
  2. It's Always Sunny
    Absolute torch today. Wx station at home is reading 90F with other wx stations around reading between 88-90F so it's legit! Should set the stage for some good thunderstorms tomorrow night.
  3. It's Always Sunny
    Some severe potential coming together for DFW early evening tomorrow along nice surface convergence boundary. Cap appears to be in place but around 21Z models erode it. Hodos have a weak and subtle curve but may generate a couple isolated supercells. SPC has marginal out so it definitely bears some watching. Risk overall is low but certainly bears watching.
  4. It's Always Sunny
    Yeah I agree to not put too much stock into ops models this far out but ensembles do favor unsettled weather around here first week of March so we'll see how it verifies. Ensembles mid to late March don't look quite as favorable (at least for now).
  5. It's Always Sunny
    Had nothing significant here near DFW airport other than some wintry mix that ended up melting once it hit the surface but I think models did a fairly good job depicting the northwest to southeast temperature gradient.
  6. It's Always Sunny
    I agree. These fronts are always so shallow which keeps me leery of the entire column cooling enough to produce wintry precip.
  7. It's Always Sunny
    The cold air will obviously be there at the surface but I'm more focused on the temperatures aloft which will be the determining factor. GFS nukes lower levels (resulting in cold rain/freezing rain) while NAM and Euro run colder (likely sleet/snow/patchy freezing rain).
  8. It's Always Sunny
    Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain.
  9. It's Always Sunny
    Just missed the 6 month anniversary of the Cape Cod tornadoes. That was a fun event to dissect once it was over.
  10. It's Always Sunny
    Ratios were crap though doesn't matter if it's freezing at the surface. 5:1 ratio amounts will give you that.
  11. It's Always Sunny
    ABQ ended up reporting 0.7" snow (midnight to midnight) so it matches your expectations. I don't know what the liquid equivalent was with that final total but as you know ABQ gets crap ratios frequently due to their climate/geographic location (snow shadowing).
  12. It's Always Sunny
    -SN in ABQ. Our official forecast is up to 1" but if it stays just cold enough I think 1-3" is certainly possible.Those temperatures around 750mb are going to be the determining factor.
  13. It's Always Sunny
    Absolutely torching in Texas today. 81F at my house which is nearly 25F above normal. DFW may tie or break its daily record of 80F. It's at 79F now with skies clearing.
  14. It's Always Sunny
    That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain. Those two pictures in that link are hilarious. Typical TX weather lol.
  15. It's Always Sunny
    The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.
  16. It's Always Sunny
    Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now:
  17. It's Always Sunny
    Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now.
  18. It's Always Sunny
    Models trended slightly east overnight which doesn't surprise me. DFW was on the western fringe to begin with but still plenty of time for models to change:
  19. It's Always Sunny
    Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well.
  20. It's Always Sunny
    Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain.
  21. It's Always Sunny
    Dynamics are pretty good looking at soundings if you wetbulb you may be able to get a least a couple inches out of it. Stark north-south gradient with this system.
  22. It's Always Sunny
    I wouldn't expect much more unfortunately. GEFS has that mid-level trough pretty much locked in at this point, leaving most of northern AR out of the mix but central MO could get some good snow out of this with a nice 850mb frontoband set to sweep through there.
  23. It's Always Sunny
    I like what it is doing as well and agree with it to some degree, considering the continuous push of warm water east however is this model taking into assumption more warm water pushing east from Maritimes in conjunction with a modeled weakening of trade winds?
  24. It's Always Sunny
    There was some considerable low level dry air associated with this anafront which gobbled up a lot of what little QPF there was to begin with. That, along with a more pronounced warm nose than modeled was the nail in the coffin for any wishful snow chances here.
  25. It's Always Sunny
    You think that developing EWB over Nino 4 will put a bit of a damper on the anomalous warm water pushing east? I still think it'll be enough to warm Nino 3.4 but maybe not quite as much as we think? I still think CFS forecast may be underdoing it a bit but that's just my opinion.
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