It's Always Sunny

GEFS & EPS look favorable for potential severe across TX and parts of srn/cntrl Plains.

Lol I know myself and I'm sure other mets on here have had to deal with that too. That and bombogenesis.

I agree with that as well. One setup I think that can be excluded from this assumption are Clipper systems; those are easy to track despite them being quick hitters.

Unfortunately we live in a society where television viewers and Facebook/Twitter dominate. Those with weather knowledge know better than to buy into the stuff we see plastered all over the internet and tv but the general public latches onto that type of stuff. Those with knowledge should also know better to look at things synoptically or taking a look at the ensembles to see if the operations solution even makes sense and is feasible. I work in an environment where they play the Weather Channel on tv and I swear half my job is to calm everyone down based off what they see.

Off topic of this exhilarating discussion about road treatment options, check out these Mount Washington obs from today so far. They obviously have a great reputation for strong winds but don't recall seeing winds of this magnitude for a bit. Blue Hill reporting gusts near 50kts. KMWN 041947Z 28087G96KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M11/M11 RMK PK WND 280105/26 VRY LGT ICG KMWN 041851Z 28084G92KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M11/M11 RMK PK WND 280105/00 VRY LGT ICG KMWN 041747Z 28081G92KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M11/M11 RMK PK WND 280106/08 LGT ICG 60017 4/020 931008 11084 21112 KMWN 041554Z 28088G101KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M10/M10 RMK PK WND 280113/15 LGT ICG KMWN 041452Z 27088G102KT 0SM -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 270116/09 LGT ICG KMWN 041347Z 27085G102KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 280112/1256 LGT ICG KMWN 041247Z 28089G100KT 0SM -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 270106/45 SNE20SHSNB20 LGT ICG KMWN 041154Z 28084G100KT 0000 -SN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 260108/43 LGT ICG 60030 70047 4/020 931015 11015 21087

Yeah I agree to not put too much stock into ops models this far out but ensembles do favor unsettled weather around here first week of March so we'll see how it verifies. Ensembles mid to late March don't look quite as favorable (at least for now).

Had nothing significant here near DFW airport other than some wintry mix that ended up melting once it hit the surface but I think models did a fairly good job depicting the northwest to southeast temperature gradient.

I agree. These fronts are always so shallow which keeps me leery of the entire column cooling enough to produce wintry precip.

The cold air will obviously be there at the surface but I'm more focused on the temperatures aloft which will be the determining factor. GFS nukes lower levels (resulting in cold rain/freezing rain) while NAM and Euro run colder (likely sleet/snow/patchy freezing rain).

Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain.

Just missed the 6 month anniversary of the Cape Cod tornadoes. That was a fun event to dissect once it was over.

Ratios were crap though doesn't matter if it's freezing at the surface. 5:1 ratio amounts will give you that.

ABQ ended up reporting 0.7" snow (midnight to midnight) so it matches your expectations. I don't know what the liquid equivalent was with that final total but as you know ABQ gets crap ratios frequently due to their climate/geographic location (snow shadowing).

-SN in ABQ. Our official forecast is up to 1" but if it stays just cold enough I think 1-3" is certainly possible.Those temperatures around 750mb are going to be the determining factor.

Absolutely torching in Texas today. 81F at my house which is nearly 25F above normal. DFW may tie or break its daily record of 80F. It's at 79F now with skies clearing.

That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain. Those two pictures in that link are hilarious. Typical TX weather lol.

The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.

Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now:

Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now.

Models trended slightly east overnight which doesn't surprise me. DFW was on the western fringe to begin with but still plenty of time for models to change:

Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well.

Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain.

Dynamics are pretty good looking at soundings if you wetbulb you may be able to get a least a couple inches out of it. Stark north-south gradient with this system.

I wouldn't expect much more unfortunately. GEFS has that mid-level trough pretty much locked in at this point, leaving most of northern AR out of the mix but central MO could get some good snow out of this with a nice 850mb frontoband set to sweep through there.

I like what it is doing as well and agree with it to some degree, considering the continuous push of warm water east however is this model taking into assumption more warm water pushing east from Maritimes in conjunction with a modeled weakening of trade winds?