It's Always Sunny

Right now I am leaning more towards overnight tstms for the Metroplex. I could be right, could be wrong but that's what makes forecasting fun.

WSI RPM 18Z model keeps cells over Wise/Jack counties which is similar to HRRR output but I'm still as equally concerned as earlier about cells getting close to the Metroplex. Runs can flip-flop with how far east/west they want to bring the cells my main takeaway is the potential is there for storms in the Metroplex (not so much the placement). Those leading cells on the HRRR are a little out of place in my opinion looks like it is sparking them off a little sfc convergence boundary that currently doesn't even exist on real time obs so it'll be interesting to see if they develop in the next hour or so. The one south of MAF makes sense because that's where the boundary actually is.

Yeah I was literally just looking at that. My biggest concern will be timing to destabilize after today's weather and then any cloud cover overnight and tomorrow morning. All the other ingredients are there though although I feel that mid-level lapse rates could be better but when you have that type of shear, low level moisture and CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg lapse rates don't need to be as steep.

Yeah I'm tracking that storm right now on GR2. Had to go out and move my car in the garage I don't trust that thing lol. Certainly has some hail in it but rotation isn't evident at this time however now is the time that wind shear is over us.

Storms already firing up south of Waco

Totally agree. Not sure if you read NWS discussion but it mentions low level vorticity along the frontal boundary, which one normally wouldn't think to look at (usually 500mb is observed more frequently). Anyways it appears between 21-03Z that front lifts north, not only providing necessary lift, but also good WAA/Theta E advection and then throw in the increased shear in that timeframe could be an eventful evening. Expecting storms to fire up south of I-20 after about 3-4pm. Could see some become severe warned shortly thereafter as the environment they will be moving into becomes more favorable. Looks like the front is currently just south of Corsicana which is also evident on radar too.

Absolute torch today. Wx station at home is reading 90F with other wx stations around reading between 88-90F so it's legit! Should set the stage for some good thunderstorms tomorrow night.

Some severe potential coming together for DFW early evening tomorrow along nice surface convergence boundary. Cap appears to be in place but around 21Z models erode it. Hodos have a weak and subtle curve but may generate a couple isolated supercells. SPC has marginal out so it definitely bears some watching. Risk overall is low but certainly bears watching.

GEFS & EPS look favorable for potential severe across TX and parts of srn/cntrl Plains.

Lol I know myself and I'm sure other mets on here have had to deal with that too. That and bombogenesis.

I agree with that as well. One setup I think that can be excluded from this assumption are Clipper systems; those are easy to track despite them being quick hitters.

Unfortunately we live in a society where television viewers and Facebook/Twitter dominate. Those with weather knowledge know better than to buy into the stuff we see plastered all over the internet and tv but the general public latches onto that type of stuff. Those with knowledge should also know better to look at things synoptically or taking a look at the ensembles to see if the operations solution even makes sense and is feasible. I work in an environment where they play the Weather Channel on tv and I swear half my job is to calm everyone down based off what they see.

Off topic of this exhilarating discussion about road treatment options, check out these Mount Washington obs from today so far. They obviously have a great reputation for strong winds but don't recall seeing winds of this magnitude for a bit. Blue Hill reporting gusts near 50kts. KMWN 041947Z 28087G96KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M11/M11 RMK PK WND 280105/26 VRY LGT ICG KMWN 041851Z 28084G92KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M11/M11 RMK PK WND 280105/00 VRY LGT ICG KMWN 041747Z 28081G92KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M11/M11 RMK PK WND 280106/08 LGT ICG 60017 4/020 931008 11084 21112 KMWN 041554Z 28088G101KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M10/M10 RMK PK WND 280113/15 LGT ICG KMWN 041452Z 27088G102KT 0SM -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 270116/09 LGT ICG KMWN 041347Z 27085G102KT 0000 -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 280112/1256 LGT ICG KMWN 041247Z 28089G100KT 0SM -SHSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 270106/45 SNE20SHSNB20 LGT ICG KMWN 041154Z 28084G100KT 0000 -SN FZFG BLSN VV000 M09/M09 RMK PK WND 260108/43 LGT ICG 60030 70047 4/020 931015 11015 21087

Yeah I agree to not put too much stock into ops models this far out but ensembles do favor unsettled weather around here first week of March so we'll see how it verifies. Ensembles mid to late March don't look quite as favorable (at least for now).

Have you seen actual pellets there? Surface temperatures are in the upper 40's wasn't sure if their ASOS was reporting accurate info. On a separate note 12Z Euro in good agreement for RDU with 1-3" possible.

Yeah unfortunately NAM is the outlier but on the bright side of things the fronto band remains aligned in the same location for the most part, just a little less robust on 12Z GFS but nothing I'm too concerned about regarding accumulating snow.

Yeah it's definitely concerning. It's a storm where dynamics will have the final say. If it snows hard enough low level temps can easily wet bulb to allow accumulations. Could be a situation where the roadways are fine but grassy surfaces get a couple inches depending on where you are.

Looks like LP shifted a hair ESE which is dragging the QPF with it. Haven't analyzed temperature profiles yet to see if anything has changed with that.

GFS has backed off a bit on totals.

Had nothing significant here near DFW airport other than some wintry mix that ended up melting once it hit the surface but I think models did a fairly good job depicting the northwest to southeast temperature gradient.

What is your runoff correction? That's a common topic of debate when forecasting ice at least during my time in the field.

I agree. These fronts are always so shallow which keeps me leery of the entire column cooling enough to produce wintry precip.

The cold air will obviously be there at the surface but I'm more focused on the temperatures aloft which will be the determining factor. GFS nukes lower levels (resulting in cold rain/freezing rain) while NAM and Euro run colder (likely sleet/snow/patchy freezing rain).

Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain.

Precip amounts are meager as well for coastal SNE