Indystorm

And there it is.. ..... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa West-central and northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri * Effective this Saturday night from 715 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Splitting discrete cells will pose a threat for primarily large hail this evening as they develop east from north-central Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Burlington IA to 60 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

We first got to get through tonight and Sunday. Possible watch coming now for west central IL this Saturday evening.

Garden variety t storm here just ne of Indpls. Looks like more severe storms will develop to the east of me in the watch.

Watch possibly forthcoming for central IN and OH due to incoming MCV from Illinois.

..Lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Across northeastern Missouri into the vicinity of a warm frontal zone across parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, it appears that an area of enhanced forcing (associated with a convectively generated or enhanced mid-level cyclonic vorticity center now developing northeast of the Kansas City area) may still support an upscale growing convective system later this evening into the overnight hours. This may be accompanied by another swath of strong to severe wind gusts.

such is the luck of the draw at times. I think overnight might be more interesting but probably MCS action.

WRF ARW also seems out to lunch for this evening.

And man that 0-3km helicity is 300 to 400 over much of northern IL, Chi town and nw IN should anything form or move into that area.

Maybe cycling and down again per update. IAC031-103-139-250045- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190525T0045Z/ CEDAR IA-JOHNSON IA-MUSCATINE IA- 704 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR...EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE COUNTIES... AT 703 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER IOWA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST EAST OF THE IOWA CITY AIRPORT. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WEST BRANCH AROUND 720 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SPRINGDALE, CEDAR VALLEY, IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MUSCATINE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, CEDAR BLUFF, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, HILLS ACCESS, OASIS, BUCHANAN AND ELMIRA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 243 AND 262.

As quickly as that Iowa City cell formed and became tornadic you just might be in business.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 652 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHWESTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT. * AT 652 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS, OR NEAR IOWA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... IOWA CITY AROUND 705 PM CDT. WEST BRANCH AROUND 720 PM CDT. WEST LIBERTY AROUND 725 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE NEWPORT, SPRINGDALE, CEDAR VALLEY, IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MUSCATINE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, CEDAR BLUFF, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, OASIS, BUCHANAN AND ELMIRA.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 IAC103-250000- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190525T0000Z/ JOHNSON IA- 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY... AT 646 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLS, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IOWA CITY, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR AND SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... IOWA CITY, UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS AND HILLS AROUND 700 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, SHARON CENTER, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS AND HILLS ACCESS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 243

That was fast BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 618 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 618 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINROSS, OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIGOURNEY, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WELLMAN AROUND 625 PM CDT. KALONA AROUND 645 PM CDT. UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS, HILLS AND OAKDALE AROUND 700 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE IOWA CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, FRYTOWN, WINDHAM, AMISH, JOHNSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS, HOLBROOK, COSGROVE AND SHARON CENTER.

I now see that northern MO has been placed under a tornado watch till midnight central time.

Storms beginning to fire around Macomb and in ne MO radar hole area. Wondering if northern MO will be put under a tornado watch for storms approaching from KC or for development farther east.

Latest SPC update Farther north, isolated supercells should also persist within warm advection zone across IL. This activity could develop a bit north into the early evening as warm front advances into southern WI/southern Lake MI. ..Darrow.. 05/24/2019 Must have stronger confidence than I do that the WF will surge north.

Ya, that WF position makes me a little nervous for central IN later on today.

73/62 IKK and se wind with new cells popping south of I-74 in advance of the tornado warned cell.

Think the location of svr as always depends on where that WF lines up geographically but Chicago web page is expecting svr storms in the 4-7 p.m. time frame in their area and then overnight.

I am always leery of the possibility of warm front tornadoes ever since the Utica IL tornado, especially now that one has been confirmed along the front. Havanna IL will be in its sights if it is on the ground or cycles.

Do think the main threat for all of you under the overnight tor watch in IL and nw In will be damaging winds from svr lines. Good luck. I'm off to bed.

Look what is forming this evening from northern IN westward across northern IL into IA. Maybe those mesoscale models that predicted training west to east t storms overnight are going to be correct in spite of the MCS that rolled through the area earlier today.

Svr watch issued till 9 eastern time to the south and east of the earlier watch.

LaSalle county EMA reported a tornado near Sheridan IL.

Mesoscale Discussion 0638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Illinois and Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161709Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm development is currently being maintained near a southward advancing cold pool, to the southwest of the Chicago area. It is not certain how long this will persist this afternoon, but there is at least some potential for further intensification and organization which could require a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air is in the process of advecting across the mid/lower Missouri Valley, toward portions of the Upper Midwest, around the northern periphery of amplified ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies. Along the leading edge of this air mass, a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is maintaining vigorous thunderstorm development, which may be also increasingly forced by lift above an associated surface cold pool. This appears to be occurring in the presence of modest (30+ kt) west-northwesterly deep layer mean flow. The influence of a 30-40 kt west-southwesterly 850 mb speed maximum nosing east of the Mississippi River may contribute to more of a southward propagation near and west of the Illinois/Indiana state border area through 18-20Z. While this track will be increasingly into weak mid-level height rises, mid/upper ridging and weaker flow aloft, the boundary layer ahead of the southwestern flank of the outflow continues to gradually moisten across much of central Illinois. Additional boundary layer warming and moistening may contribute to weakening inhibition for boundary layer parcels with CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. Thus, while it remains unclear if synoptic forcing for ascent will maintain ongoing convection this afternoon, it appears at least possible that mesoscale processes will, with subsequent further intensification and organization possible. This probably would be accompanied by increasing potential for strong winds at least approaching severe limits along a strengthening gust front. ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/16/2019