Indystorm

Well with upper 80 temps and dews around 70 DFW is a powder keg when those storms to the north get down there whatever happens.

I might get a garden variety t storm around midnight or so down here in central IN. 72/51 here now this evening.

...Midwest... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the mid-MS Valley region Tuesday afternoon as exit region of upper jet shifts across IA. Diffluent high-level flow should overspread this region which should aid scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front from MO, north to near the surface low. Latest short-range model guidance/CAMs are fairly aggressive in developing scattered deep convection, possibly supercellular, within an increasingly sheared regime. While low-level moisture is initially a bit dry, rapid boundary-layer moistening is expected across MO into IL ahead of the wind shift. This should allow substantial buoyancy to evolve that would support potentially organized supercells. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible with pre-frontal supercells.

Based on current Monday afternoon 3k NAM and HRRR if I were chasing Tuesday I would focus on late afternoon from west central IL to the Peoria region for possible tornadoes.

Hmm.....

The virus may have been present here for a much longer time in the general asymptomatic population than originally thought, as some reports have indicated. It may have more recently mutated to increase its potency and virulence among humans than was previously the case. It's sort of like reminding ourselves that wall clouds can be rather prevalent, but the majority of wall clouds do not produce tornadoes.

Right now SPC has a marginal risk on Tuesday April 28 for IL but says in the discussion that severe probs may need to be increased for the Midwest if instability increases in the area.

Surprise for April 25 here in sw IN Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments 1825 5 NNW MOUNT VERNON POSEY IN 3800 8792 LATE REPORT. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON NEAR COPPERLINE ROAD AND BASE ROAD INTERSECTION. (PAH)

67 on my car thermometer here just ne of Indpls. No rain here yet.

Skilling mentioned this possible threat several days ago. Was concerned about the system's amplitude.

Hopefully this monster cell is outflow dominated, but that's bad enough

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT. * AT 912 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCLEOD, OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTA, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHREVEPORT, BOSSIER CITY, VIVIAN, HAUGHTON, BLANCHARD, BENTON, PLAIN DEALING, OIL CITY, MOORINGSPORT, HOSSTON, RODESSA, BELCHER, IDA, GILLIAM, EASTWOOD, FOSTERS, ALDEN BRIDGE, FERGUSON, CURTIS AND FILLMORE.

Per warning updates it looks like Paris could be hit from both the west and nw.

Hopefully...I only have NWS radar and very hard to tell from that.

Confirmed tor 15 miles west of Paris moving east

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 709 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020 TXC277-250045- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200425T0045Z/ LAMAR TX- 709 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY... AT 708 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DEPORT AROUND 735 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE TOCO, ROXTON AND SUN VALLEY.

Paris TX 25,000 population Hate that radar hole

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020 OKC013-250000- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-200425T0000Z/ BRYAN OK- 645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BRYAN COUNTY... AT 645 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BOKCHITO, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOKCHITO, BENNINGTON AND BLUE.

I'd watch the cells along the Red River moving southeast.

I'm hopeful things will improve as storms move eastward and anticipation of the LLJ but not happy about night threats again in the south.

Storms now beginning to initiate se of Dallas metro

Pulse type mini severe cells igniting over central and eastern MO this Friday afternoon.

Wording is confusing.....they're talking about a PDS tornado situation but then say radar indicated rotation as source rather than radar confirmed.

Brunswick and St. Simons to be under the gun shortly.