Indystorm

Great structure and shot Quincy

Now initiation is expected as predicted in nw OK shortly and will move southeast to threaten Oklahoma City environs later tonight. Mesoscale Discussion 0550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Northwest Oklahoma...Northeast Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 072343Z - 080045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 01z. Hail and wind are expected with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Agitated cu field is slowly expanding in areal coverage across portions of southwestern KS, extending north along sharpening cold front. This is partly due to low-level moisture advancing rapidly north across western OK into southwest KS (surface dew point is now 54F at DDC). Mid-level heights will continue falling across the central Plains this evening and large-scale forcing for ascent should aid convective development along the frontal zone over the next few hours. Once convection develops, an upward-evolving thunderstorm cluster is expected to propagate southeast along a warm front that is currently draped from southwest KS into southeast OK. With time, LLJ will increase markedly into central OK late this evening and a more expansive southeast-moving MCS should spread toward the Oklahoma City metro. Large hail will be common with supercells and damaging wind threat should increase as MCS becomes more linear in nature. ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/07/2020

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 620 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 620 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF GOODLETT, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... QUANAH, CHILLICOTHE, ELDORADO, GOODLETT AND COPPER BREAKS STATE PARK.

That is where I think we will shortly have initiation. Not really looking for tors today but the giant hail and hurricane force wind risk for later in OK is concerning. Seems to be a real thin ribbon of low 60 dewpoints extending south.

Ha Ha.....I;m tempted to say I'll eat my Covid-19 mask if this verifies.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 650 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT. * AT 650 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINEVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK... ANDERSON... GOODMAN... PINEVILLE... WASHBURN... POWELL... RIDGLEY...

Mesoscale Discussion 0536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 163... Valid 042342Z - 050145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk remains evident across Tornado Watch 163, with greatest short-term tornado potential indicated within a small corridor near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop indicates a broken band of supercell storms ongoing near the advancing surface cold front, from southwestern Missouri to south-central Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of this band remains moderately unstable, with mid 60s dewpoints beneath very steep lapse rates aloft yielding 3000 to 4000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. While deep-layer shear -- owing to veering/increasing flow with height -- is favorable for strongly rotating updrafts given the thermodynamic environment, low-level shear remains somewhat weak in most areas. As such, the main risk remains very large hail, and locally damaging RFD outflow winds. However, a locally enhanced area for tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours appears to exist across far northeastern OK, far southwestern MO, and into northwestern AR. Here, a northwest-to-southeast outflow boundary is evident, and it appears that a supercell now moving southeastward into McDonald County Missouri may move along this boundary -- and the associated zone of enhanced vorticity. If this occurs, this storm -- or another cell or two just to the southwest -- may pose locally greater tornado potential within the narrow corridor in the vicinity of the boundary.

Joplin is now 67/62 with variable wind.....up from 63/58 with strong ne wind not too long ago.

I'm still concerned with the levels of helicity as these storms move into Missouri and nw Arkansas.

LETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 603 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT. * AT 602 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WYANDOTTE, OR 9 MILES EAST OF MIAMI, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEOSHO... BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK... SENECA... GRANBY... ANDERSON... GOODMAN... RACINE...

As was mentioned earlier tail end charlie might get active. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 554 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT. * AT 553 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF ROSEDALE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BYARS AND ROSEDALE.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 517 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 OKC027-125-042300- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-200504T2300Z/ CLEVELAND OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK- 517 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES... AT 516 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN, OR NEAR LAKE THUNDERBIRD, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL 3 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAKE THUNDERBIRD. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN, TECUMSEH, PINK, TRIBBEY, ETOWAH, BROOKSVILLE, MACOMB, LAKE THUNDERBIRD, LITTLE AXE AND TROUSDALE.

What are the prospects of the LLJ ramping up this evening in the tornado watch area?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 431 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT. * AT 430 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHETOPA, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BAXTER SPRINGS... COLUMBUS... GALENA... LOWELL... TREECE... NEUTRAL... MELROSE... RIVERTON... SHERWIN... FAULKNER... CRESTLINE... LAWTON...

Is it the poor low level lapse rate or the 700 mb possible cap around 10 that is inhibiting convection at the moment?

What a contrast...Tulsa 86/70 wind south at 14 Joplin 63/58 Ne wind at 17 gusting to 26

Yep, seems like a pulse severe at the moment

Initiation north of Tulsa has rapidly gone severe

Central IL and IN are under marginal risk this Sat. evening with storms starting to fire in west central IL west of Springfield and Lincoln. Let's see what develops. Right now they are elevated on the north side of the front....Springfield 76/49 Salem 78/64 SPC not currently expecting to issue a watch due to sparse nature of convection, but damaging wind gusts and some hail may occur.

Yeah, public health emergency declared in all of Cass County because of this. Really making the news down here. Wondering what Gov. Holcomb will say Friday on his update regarding either extension of stay at home or limited reopening. And Simon had planned to reopen their malls on a limited basis starting this weekend.

I've only seen a confirmed EF 0 tornado that touched down in Dyer IN on May 27, 2019. A nearby theater was evacuated from that one and I saw the tornado to my west. Your story sounds too close for comfort.

But I remember following those long track supercells that hit on March 12, 2006 that produced two tornadoes in Springfield.

Nice shelf cloud

Mesoscale Discussion 0492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Areas affected...southwest through central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151... Valid 290002Z - 290130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 151 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for very large hail and locally strong to damaging wind gusts will persist through mid evening from southwest through central OK. DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated severe storms including some with supercell structures continue developing across central OK along a southeast-advancing cold front. The atmosphere is very unstable in this region with 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE along with steep lapse rates and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear. These storms have a history of very large hail and damaging gusts. Despite the increase in convective inhibition due to boundary-layer cooling, forcing from near the front/dryline intersection over southwest OK and northeast along the cold front will remain sufficient for thunderstorm development through at least mid evening.

Your mid level lapse rates are great and low levels not too shabby either. Shear and helicity values could be better for tors but as the LLJ ramps up wait and see what happens. Watch those two cells to the north in OK coming down I-35.