Indystorm

And new cells, although small right now are forming from Sterling and Clinton down to nw of Peoria.....per HRRR

Hang tight. Even if no tor appears two inch hail in the warning isn't any fun.

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 315 PM CDT. * AT 227 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGBROOK, OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAQUOKETA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BELLEVUE AROUND 250 PM CDT. HANOVER AROUND 300 PM CDT. ELIZABETH AROUND 310 PM CDT.

I have growing concern for Chicago metro area with the storms to the sw as helicity is better in Chi town area and we already have report of the tornado to the sw near Pontiac. Also as has been mentioned the triple point will be moving in that direction as well.

Heat burst? lol

Yes, the northern storm near Ottawa is becoming better defined and the tor warned storm south of it both need to be watched very carefully in the near term.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 230 PM CDT. * AT 156 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EL PASO, OR 16 MILES EAST OF EUREKA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... PANOLA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 22

Your guess is as good as mine. SPC already has the prob listed as moderate for the possibility of a strong tornado within the enhanced risk tornado watch box. Again the number of storms within a geographical area basically determines the risk level.

I now have a svr t storm with 60 mph winds headed in my direction from Indpls now along the W F.

Bulk shear and low level lapse rates have improved dramatically over the tor watch area with Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP) up to two just south of Rockford area. Good low level lapse rates will help any horizontal vortex to be lifted into the vertical.

Looks like Cyclone just got hammered ne of Quad Cities.

Those cells from Quad Cities to Peoria to Terre Haute and west of Indpls are moving quickly ne along the WF. I think it is sw of that line where altocumulus streets are starting to show on satellite that we will have to watch for action later on today as well.

I was fortunate to see a confirmed EF-0 tornado up at Dyer IN last year on May 27 as I was visiting relatives. Wasn't even chasing.

Are you going to actively or armchair chase today since you are in the enhanced area? Thanks for all your updates. Good luck with the IL river flooding as it moves downstream as well.

Watch that warm front. Early morning AFD's in the area were written before SPC upgraded to enhanced.risk. Does look at present like one of the more active days.

This area and the Wichita Falls environs have really been getting pounded this evening with one svr storm after another. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 915 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 915 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWPORT, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BELLEVUE, NEWPORT, VASHTI AND JOY.

I now wonder if that complex of storms along the Red River will form a cold pool and dive se to the metroplex.

Cell tops in the OK/TX watch area expected to reach 60,000 feet. Wow!

And storms are now rapidly forming over the eastern OK western AR area.

Sig Tor parameters are highest in south central to se OK probably because of the higher bulk shear in that area. But I am leery of the se backed winds over the metroplex with a cap that at 10 is certainly not thermonuclear.

ML CAPE is higher than initially progged earlier today.

Mesoscale Discussion 0674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203... Valid 222320Z - 230115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue near the Red River over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A right-moving supercell is ongoing near the Red River which located close to a maximum in instability. A pocket of strong instability is analyzed by the RAP near and to the south of the Red River with MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range. The WSR 88D-VWP at Frederick shows veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km AGL with 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. As low-level winds increase over the next couple of hours, the tornado threat will likely increase locally. The greatest threat will exist with the right-moving supercell as it tracks just to the south of the Red River.

I am concerned about the prospect of the LLJ ramping up this evening with backed winds as was indicated in the forecast.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 603 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 603 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRANDFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORTHERN WICHITA FALLS, BURKBURNETT, GRANDFIELD, DEAN, RANDLETT, DEVOL, SHEPPARD AFB, TAYLOR, CHARLIE AND CASHION.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 829 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2020 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF SANFORD DAM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER FROM SANFORD DAM TO THE CHIPPAWASSEE SCHOOL AREA IN... EAST CENTRAL MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT. * AT 817 AM EDT, COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED UNCONTROLLED FLOW THROUGH THE EMERGENCY SPILLWAY AND THE IMMINENT FAILURE OF SANFORD DAM ON THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF SANFORD DAM TO THE CHIPPAWASSEE SCHOOL AREA AND MIDLAND! SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE FAILURE OF SANFORD DAM. SOURCE...COUNTY DISPATCH. IMPACT...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! IMMEDIATE EVACUATION FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SANFORD DAM ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER. * THE NEAREST DOWNSTREAM TOWN IS SANFORD...LOCATED IMMEDIATELY BELOW THE DAM. THE TOWN OF AVERILL IS 3.5 MILES DOWNSTREAM AND THE CHIPPAWASSEE SCHOOL AREA IS 8.5 MILES DOWNSTREAM. AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SANFORD DAM ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN LOW LYING AREAS BELOW THE SANFORD DAM YOU SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. FOLLOW EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER. LAT...LON 4368 8436 4368 8442 4353 8417 4357 8417 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC DAM FAILURE...OCCURRING