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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The SST movement changes direction next few weeks. This is when you'll see it change or not, some people say a Kelvin wave like we had is a preceding mark. Those +subsurface in the western regions are impressive. I think it's strengthening versus climo is a strong signal for North Pacific -PNA, like we are seeing now. The whole pattern has shifted north 200 miles so you aren't going to see severe wx setups like early 2000s
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What a happening in Texas in February!
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    CPCs subsurface were substantially more Nina last month, TAO/Triton this is most extreme of event now. imo TAO is better
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know much about the QBO. QBO, MJO, AAM sound like new age terms. It was so cool to see precip patterns change when the SOI went negative Check out the NOI or SOI*
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's strengthening a little bit, a lot versus climatology for this time of year. In El Nino transition, it's usually a little different right now meaning this probably goes until April
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    160W is the point for the 200m warm anomalies to cross or not.. this is La Nina signature, and higher western thermocline is probably better forcing for North pacific ridge than cold east
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming to March
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You dont have frost?
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nov-Feb 2017-2018 will finish the greatest +500mb in the Arctic Circle on record, significantly above number 2.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to get a drought here because we average like 4" per month. You would need something like 10/40 potentials to hit
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ? Check out the images on NASA. Not only have 2015-2016-2017 been substantially warm but it looks like we will go ice free in 10 years just by following basic trend lines Also of note is arctic 500mb heights this Winter through Nov 1 - Feb 5 have been greater than any year since 2013, and substantially warmer than 2015-2016-2017 Winters. I would say just by going by basic probability there is a >50% chance that this Summer is the lowest arctic ice to date
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    subsurface in a switch to El Nino is usually different by now.. it's backbuilding west meaning the 5-month ONI classification will likely be hit
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty solid match to what's happening, PV establishing over Canada
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end).
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The stuff here is impressive and makes me think this pattern change is favorable to above average Spring.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yo the 18z gfs is not wet through the frames that count
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I've watched the GFS produce those maps all Winter, it's pretty simple that in the pattern it won't happen.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah man. check out this drought
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFS very dry through the run... surprising. This should not be such a dry time normally.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Regarding ENSO, I think SSTs are so warm right now we would default to +0.5c as the new average, especially in the Spring.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not really possible. Can I have a job?
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The way it's moving now, there is pretty much no way the La Nina holds. Peak season is not passed so there is still some time for a cold push, but subsurface and surface are all moving toward Neutral. Record warm Northern Hemisphere SSTs are the real thing, and I wonder if this will drive weak El Nino in the Spring. It seemed to work last year. Imagine these record SSTs and a developing real El Nino... The jump in certain statistics would be so large I wonder if it's even possible.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    How are you doing? Is the blizzard kind of a warm wet snow?
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    lol the roads are wet.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    gravity waves... I bet closer to center of storm it is much different. like the antarctic or something.
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