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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm not sure of this data.. NASA I think shows something different.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global pattern change coming in 6-7 days per models, I think it will accelerate ice melt to near record levels through July (I can already feel it)
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you factor in the exponential increase of ice loss in time it's a nonpoint I guess. This is more saying we are leveling up global warmth/overall melt, in a few days.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There is near record Hadley Cell expansion coming up in a pattern change in 6-7 days. Would favor arctic melt down the line I think.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surface is much warmer than upper levels right now in the Northern Hemisphere. Low at 500mb could be very warm at the surface in certain places.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This would actually be an impressive melt pattern for the arctic if it verifies http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Beyond there, there is guidance for +Jul-Aug. Big melt season I think Also, today seems to be a switch from less favorable to favorable.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It goes something like every event that has broke in June-July peaks in October-November or later. Subsurface looks like a 2 month warming at least.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The upper midwest one's aren't that impressive. -50 in Chicago? Big deal. I bet the further south has some better extremes. I bet the western 1/3 of the country has some better extremes.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Now the modeled pattern is shifting a little bit. I think more in an AMO thing though.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Some things on this forum are rather threatening
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Who is Cobalt? Do you think that's rain?
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks now like it may go into a stronger Nino
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Ok.. look at how this filled in in the north part of Greenland then become an arctic circle block (models were consistently negative anomaly here until a day ago). I think this is the same trend from the Winter and it will be a large arctic ice melt season
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Definitely El Nino, subsurface is leading indicator
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface trends early 2018 has 7 analogs.. 3 went El Nino, 4 were Neutral. The way it's going, I would guess Weak or low end Moderate El Nino as a max, about the same % chance for Neutral, and slight chance we go back to Weak Nina in the Fall. Hurricane season is probably active with a lot of US misses.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Next year might be El Nino so that would be interesting with how warm N Hemisphere SSTs were this Winter.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I would think in a 1000 year period the largest snowfall would happen in the Southeast, US. probably Florida
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    everyone is in a different time?

  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is some pretty awesome cold for April. Wonder if it verifies.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    98-99, 99-00, 00-01. It's not too uncommon. 54-56 had a nice streak. 73-76 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php I think a 3rd Nina year would be weird because of Global warming bias right now. 1 center El Nino event since 2010 in this exponentially warming climate?
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Don't expect it to go El Nino anytime soon.. subsurface for this late in the Winter may even support a Nina rebound in the Summer if it doesn't persist at the surface
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You'll love this one, Global warming is another way of saying dimension split.. we are on really really low end here. Almost to the point of not going back but not quite yet but we are heading that way
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