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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It was flurrying in bel air.. should be cold enough here.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This isn't going to hit WSW criteria. It's too warm.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    As always, RAP is trending warmer as we get closer to the event. (click to animate)
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm a little concerned about the higher end totals because of this.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The North Pacific is not acting like El Nino at all despite El Nino conditions in the subsurface.. this was completely different,connected until about 6-9 months ago.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A little bit of a stronger system
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is pretty significant.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA, you don't see this in El Nino, but Neutral. You do see this N Pacific pattern in El Nino. It will be interesting to see if a new Kelvin Wave develops in 10-15 days.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm going to end the Winter with about 25".
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can't believe there are precip type issues with -NAO. <- I wrote that earlier. Now the 12z GFS is cold. (Where's the activity?)
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We might get 3 hecs in a season before we get one real ice storm Yeah.. when the snow melts it doesn't refreeze anymore. ~4.5" here.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I posted this before, February SOI actually has an inverse correlation to the next years ENSO state.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ^ I also got the warm SE Canada signal in analogs using -PNA/El Nino conditions. The subsurface is still Weak El Nino but the globe is no longer +AAM.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look what showed up, +SST anomalies on the STJ part of both sides of North America, like we had last year. (I wonder if it will be a similar season of hits.)
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surprising, they are probably going with re-development.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of convection over ENSO. This is actually the strongest El Nino-OLR push of the entire El Nino event. Second strongest +subsurface wave, only October was greater. I'm surprised the Pacific is so -PNA right now.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It will be hard to do La Nina. The Earths pattern is in opposite, rotational speed index I call it. El Nino or Neutral.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    MJO will probably not stay strong.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    For an El Nino going in Oct-Dec to die out like this completely in mid-Winter, Reminds me of the early 1950s (51-52, 52-53).
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'd still call it an El Nino.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What's with these new models.. it's impossible to get a Polar pattern that far south without a pattern change.. Sorry if I'm ranting, Euro and UKMET are still the best.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    EPO is positive.. I'm not sure how that would work.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to have a -PNA in El Nino like this, although it can happen like in 65-66. I think it speaks volumes about the long term PDO state and longer term ENSO state, which is probably closer to 0.0 vs the global average of +0.3. Subsurface trends continue to suggest that this is a Weak-Moderate El Nino (although subsurface looks weak now I think that is because of SOI/MJO, which cuts into but is not necessarily the predominant state).
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAO is actually a secondary index, because the pattern is mostly west to east and rarely buckles over the top since the 1800s/ice decline.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM is surprisingly warm. I'm not sure it will verify.. seems like a cold bust as the primarily low is trending weaker..
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