AfewUniversesBelowNormal

It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr?

You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?

Maybe some storms with this one.

Looking at this latest subsurface, we might not hold the warming, and with cooler waters moving to 170W, it could eventually go Neutral/-Neutral. Long term models today popped a -PNA for the first time. I was thinking that looking at subsurface, but most of the Strong Nino's actually didn't have the subsurface lead. May 1982 was weaker than we are now. It's my hunch that the El Nino will go on Weak-Moderate-Strong, but not to 15-16 or 97-98 levels.

The good news is, it's not a hopeless situation around ENSO and snowfall like it seems. The lack of El Nino-cold and true +PNA in recent Winter's, is not opposite of ENSO state. This is subsurface smoothed average data since 1979: Notice that although 15-16 was a strong El Nino, and there have been 3 El Nino winter's in the last 6 years, the long term average right now is barely positive. I have determined in research that ENSO subsurface is better correlated with the pattern than the surface. Maybe when the subsurface gets more positive there will true patterns of trough and storminess (09-10 was better than 15-16, and so was 91-95, etc).

Return to +AAM on long range models, which you see in the late Winter of 2-year El Nino's (1952, 1987, 2015). (This is a +signal, that is like El Nino but global.)

Now weakening.. this is a 5 day average.

Subsurface is warming again.. another day lol

This is a pretty healthy -1 subsurface wave making it to 180W.. chances for La Nina go up.

Last year at this time was actually more of a developing El Nino than this year

Subsurface warm pool is now weakening. It will probably peak at the surface for another 1-2 weeks, but we look to be heading straight toward Neutral/Weak Nino.

It looks like, on the 18z GFS, that the subsurface wave is still going strong Day 15+.

It's the lowest 5-month SOI since 1997. That was February. We could easily break 1982 and 1997 SOI-wise if the El Nino strengthens in the Spring. Check out the Indian Ocean signal.

Really solid El Nino developing now.

We might be going into a 2-year Nino.

It looks, as per subsurface, that the event will peak in April.

The way this +PNA is unfolding with the developing Kelvin wave makes me think this will not rush into Strong territory. It's a NorthPacific-ENSO even signal if that makes any sense. Weak-Moderate continuation, although something may happen in the Fall. (The point is, we are probably staying below 1982,1997) Edit: ie, in strong events you would usually see the NOI bottoming right now, and a off the west-coast or GOA trough.

They are saying the same thing in central/south Europe.

Something people don't really know.. 1965-1966 was a Strong Nino that peaked in the Fall. 2.0, 2.0, 1.7, then 1.4 djf. This was a -PNA Just like this year. We are peaking on the other end of the seasonal scale.. El Nino likely to continue.

Subsurface continues to lead surface significantly so. Check out the western subsurface leading up to the 2015 El Nino. We seem to be doing it again.

Strong El Nino subsurface wave.. looks like an El Nino Spring.

This is a strong +subsurface wave currently happening, and 11-15 day models have it continuing to strengthen.

It looks like El Nino is making a comeback, which doesn't bode well for severe weather. The +AO pattern in the long range may produce, at least rainbands around March 15th: (Thunderstorm activity is down 50% right now.)

This is pretty cool.. I posted earlier that there is an inverse correlation between February SOI and the next years ENSO state. AAM is something like rotational speed of the Earth, faster in El Nino, slower in La Nina. AAM can been in 500mb heights as this: Febuary 15-28 2019 has been -AAM (what you usually see in La Nina) Check out these strong El Nino developing analogs and what happened Feb 15-28 AAM-wise. All were -AAM.

Surprised you have Baltimore so high.