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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Still a chance.. we basically didn't see +PNA at all, not even for 1 day in many years of no-El Nino
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    That looks like a graph of strength of the global system imo. It's been +AO though.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at how this El Nino has just completely collapsed.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Just like pretty much every El Nino after 97-00.. Warm Nino 4, cold 1.2. 6/7. La Nina's are colder in the east (Nino 3) too.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Sometimes it does this, becomes a purely surface-based movement. We saw this in 1982, 1972, 1997.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. 1982, the third Strongest, was two months above 0.97. 89-90 and 90-91 did and they both had -SOI or -NOI something characteristics of the phase.. 67-68 is the other example and that was a Weak Nino. Two months above 0.9 includes 02-03 which was Moderate El Nino, and 92-93 which I consider a Weak Nino (subsurface). 8/8 had something-characteristics-aspects of the phase in my opinion.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this. Reminds me of the Winter.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surprised no one has mentioned the Euro.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's correct. I wouldn't doubt some colder waters popping up in the eastern regions in a few months.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really classic El Nino signature in the North Pacific like we haven't seen in a while. Reminds me of the late 70s. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really weak subsurface now.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this, classic +PNA
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I wonder if we'll see another Kelvin Wave in early May.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Again, it's currently the 5-month lowest SOI since 1997:
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this nice +PNA though. We didn't see the North Pacific trough cut so far SW in the last El Nino. Pattern change.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It was cold in a lot of earlier 1900s years. In the 3, 5, or 10 year average, definitely colder though.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check this out for the coming -NOI, it has the dual-opposite Pacific-Atlantic pattern of EPO-PNA/NAO. April NOI is important for Moderate El Nino's.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    IO (MJO)
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    +NOI continues on models for about 12 days. I remember researching this, and finding a very strong correlation between late March/April NOI and seasonal ENSO cycle (healthy events). (PDO link too)
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995: I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    (click to animate)
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly.
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