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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like it's redeveloping back west. Usually you would see cold pool there right now, even in transition back to Neutral.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    On topic please. All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening).
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The -AO signal is really strong, but it's probably +NAO for a while..
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    1993 was suppose to be 24-36" and it ended up sleeting 4" and it was 12-13" total.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    '96/ Not even close.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The subsurface configuration suggests it's a late blooming peak, January or February, Matches 1953,1987,2015 the best.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Good sign.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You've got one heck of a storm on the 18z NAM.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    In 2003 was the wettest year and 2002 was the last drought..
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, I see seasonal models shift with every little swing. It's weird to see them go weaker in the last few weeks with the El Nino dominating and still peaking.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think the 5 year streak of +NAO feedsback to El Nino bias going forward.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you animate arctic ice on NASA, it looks like we are below the long term trend. I would expect a severe melt in the next 1-2 Summers (like September kind of showed)
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Negative Neutral would be my call -0.1 or something.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nothing but positive 500mb in the Arctic for the next 15 days. It's stagnant though, this is weird to me because it seems to be from no ice (no atmosphere).
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I doubt anything that measures sea ice depth/mass would have reversed after 2016.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think it's starting to shift away from El Nino.. PDO is getting super negative and subsurface is not rewarming back west.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Do you really think 7th right now? It's kind of a fancy number by the way. What are the clouds like where you are?
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    As far as sensible weather goes, this year can't be anything but number 1.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm not sure of this data.. NASA I think shows something different.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global pattern change coming in 6-7 days per models, I think it will accelerate ice melt to near record levels through July (I can already feel it)
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you factor in the exponential increase of ice loss in time it's a nonpoint I guess. This is more saying we are leveling up global warmth/overall melt, in a few days.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There is near record Hadley Cell expansion coming up in a pattern change in 6-7 days. Would favor arctic melt down the line I think.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surface is much warmer than upper levels right now in the Northern Hemisphere. Low at 500mb could be very warm at the surface in certain places.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This would actually be an impressive melt pattern for the arctic if it verifies http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Beyond there, there is guidance for +Jul-Aug. Big melt season I think Also, today seems to be a switch from less favorable to favorable.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It goes something like every event that has broke in June-July peaks in October-November or later. Subsurface looks like a 2 month warming at least.
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