AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Looks like a La Nina making. I doubt anything real could develop in this environment.

After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land).

I don't know, it would be hard to bet against a shorter term La Nina, at least in Nino 3. The subsurface warmer pool will push a cold wave to the surface in Nino 1.2 and 3 for at least the next month.

Well, Winter is breaking into the West and Rocky Mountains. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif It looks like it's going to be another one of these type of years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

Here comes the La Nina. My prediction is developing La Nina.

You'd always see this ENSO configuration in a generally warm Earth because of land/mountain torque.. Any warmer and it's biased El Nino (Nino 1.2 and 3 are cold).

Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months..

Just like everything, it's averaging out in time. Big time -AO develops as soon as the ice accretion starts.

Looking at medium/long range models, it's really hard for a +PNA to form. Skewed toward -PDO, like we've seen 2014-2019 in the long wavelength season. The Aleutian High becomes a block in about September and the same is holding true this year. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html I mention this because we had +PNA all year up until about 7-10 days ago. This -PDO is a pattern that will hold.

Another dry winter for the West coast...

I wonder how it would be if people lived in Greenland? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html .. That's why.. oh, space weather was a +25% research and I stopped it for whatever reason.

I think the Atlnatic SST index NAO index argues for a -NAO higher frequency.

Not a Winter blizzard pattern

ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change...

To boot, we have La Nina wavelengths http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html