ILMRoss

Correct, as I remember it Dec. 18 was a QPF bomb with marginal temps. Yeah, obvious "lucy pulling the football" kinda caveats apply, but for now i'll sit back and admire.

I would, in a heart beat, trade 10 snowless winters just for this single hr 240 frame to verify

An inspired 12z suite, hope it holds for a few more cycles, that last frame of the euro is what legitimate dreams and historic snows are made of

Yeah I’m intrigued, don’t know how substantive it will be, but wouldn’t mind a few “bursts” of snow and some rogue snow showers blessing eastern North Carolina like the short term models show

Now full disclosure I haven’t taken a full look under the hood but: - The CAD isn’t particularly strong or impressive - I don’t really know how much I trust this moisture feed holding its integrity tomorrow morning during a LP transfer - I like the RGEM but not if it’s alone in a depiction of something I can see the foothills and those counties right along the spine of the apps that are “core CAD” I guess you could call it getting a decent glaze but overall I’m put off by the lukewarm CAD signal

Apologies if this doesn’t sound too “scientific” but something about this event simply just does not pass the smell test for me.

It took longer than I was hoping. But finally some flakes mixing in around historic oakwood in Raleigh

look i'm no moderator but i think it would be worthwhile to start a thread for this so that chatter on the weekend storm has its own place.

It will be a few hours before i can really sit down and see whats going on but i think there's a case to be made

that euro run is one of the most ludicrous model runs i've ever seen in my 11 years of following these things. holy hell

Oh my god, the hrrr. I'm thinking I put in my "doc, he's dead" comment way too early.

Guys, I literally don’t think north or south really even matters at this point. It’s dead. What made this event really special was the potential for it to bomb off of the coast and draw a lot of moisture that way. With this speedier trend, not only is the duration cut, but we also completely lose the *magic* for lack of a better word of a sub 990 low off of the coast. For all intents and purposes, we may as well be dealing with a clipper with marginal temperatures. It’s a shame it’s worked out this way.

We saw some great model runs with this. However, the final *nail* was the speed up today. By the time this storm bombed off the coast, it was too far away for us to reap benefits. I will hope for some token flakes but I will not be staying up until 3AM on Wednesday night to see it, I have things to do! I will not lose hope; over the years seems like every time hope is lost, some sort of event bails is out.

In a nutshell (and Eric Webb knows leagues more about this than I do), MJO follows an area of low level convergence (indicated by enhanced thunderstorms) over the Indian Ocean. Thunderstorms release latent heat which can help initiate/build ridges. That ridge can dig a trough downstream, that trough can then build a ridge downstream of it..... you get the idea. Each *phase* is linked to a different area where this convergence is happening, so each phase will make that wave train align a little differently. I know you said you read about this, but I think the literature can be a little too “academic” for laymen to understand.

I actually wasn't that discouraged by this suite and I think we live to see the next round. The outskirts of this forum (you could call it the highway 158 corridor, if that's a thing) are still flirting with the possibility of meaningful snow if you take some of today's runs verbatim. There were some subtle synoptic changes that I liked as well that caused storm tracks to either hold serve or inch southward. I'm not putting a stake in this yet.

Pivotal Weather has updated GFS V16 runs.

I have a meteorology degree and I worked in the industry some, which is why I have the red tag, but i am currently working out of the industry. To add, there are plenty of meteorologists (insurance folks, research, client facing folks, programmers, developers etc.) whose job is not purely to focus 7 days ahead. It’s become a very expansive industry! Unless I was media in Raleigh, or at a NWS WFO around the area, chances are I’d have other work besides figuring out if the triangle gets snow in 5 days.

I’ve been pretty optimistic and I still think we we’re in the game, especially if the high octane solutions of the GFS pan out. With a “big dog”, we don’t necessarily need to be in the epicenter to receive significant snows. That being said, if we trend towards less favorable solutions this suite, I will be moving on and catching up on some of the work I put off this week because I was model watching instead.

I get it, I was a broadcast met at the station in Bluefield WV right out of college and that SWVA/SWV/i81 corridor until you reach Lexington is kind of geographic no-mans-land; not quite rocky enough to claim Appalachia, in between the north and the south. I keep on thinking back to March 2018, where it felt like a lot of systems dipped into us from the NW and storms that at first seemed like would exclusively be for SWVA surprised the models and clipped NC with some extra snow. I just keep on wondering how exactly this thing coming in from due W or WNW changes the typical trends that we have.

we may be thinking about different systems... buddy i'm going to be honest with you man, i've been reading/chiming in here for years and when i check the forum after being busy for a few hours and i see you super happy my heart drops like a rock

And to answer your question, you're right, low pressures are generally going to divert around high pressures, and usually CAD drives our wonky miller B transfers to off the coast where cyclogenesis is more favorable. The issue is that the flank of the high on our side has been eroded over the last few runs, really weakening our CAD and nullifying that effect.

GFS just dropped a 150 mile shift south on us. I know that the *end result* isn't satisfying but this wasn't a disaster.

To quote Neil Young, don't let it bring you down. It's only castles burning. Hoping this suite brings a good trend.

I actually didn't mind the look on the Euro. I thought the ambient synoptic 'look' was fine enough, and you can chalk the storm underperformance to the strength of our shortwave. It appeared "limp" out the gate in California compared to other models and I think that set the tone for the rest of the run. I didn't think this was a fantastic model suite, but by no means are we out of the picture.

Kinda hated the look on the GFS, looked warmer on a wholesale level in our area and the ridge out west wasn't as robust. CMC, I thought, was a way better look; colder system, excellent trends from previous run. Just need a better CAD high from that model.