ILMRoss

Ok, appreciate the context. I had an inkling that it was this, but "hey, here's a new euro. it's better than the current euro. and it shows a generationally winter weather event" feels too good to be true.

what on earth is the euro parallel. is it a beta thing? i swear sometimes with these new models i feel like im being punked

The early January 2017 bust still looms large in everyone’s minds. Me and some met buddies who were gearing up for 6-12 to close out our last semester got a night of cold rain, and basically every office/media org had to put out some overwrought mea culpa on what they got wrong. My point is that bust still ignites a pretty visceral reaction and media/NWS will likely be ultra conservative in any setup that mirrors it. I mean, I don’t remember how this forum was but I can tell you the meteorology group chat I was in was absolutely melting down. So that event I believe still colors and frames a lot of expectations around here.

There’s a lot of ways to skin this cat. Right now I would trust the euro ens to watch my cats and feed them on time, and I wouldn’t trust the gfs to do that. This will be my only other piece of anecdotal wishy washy analysis today. But feel like the gfs does this a lot (I think it had a few runs when it rammed dec 2018 up mid Atlantic to New England) where it runs storms way too far inland in the long range and gives us heart attacks, only for other models to soothe us. That’s where my thinking is right now and the gfs is not affecting my psyche.

I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies)

What is the GEPS- it’s so hard to keep track of all these models

I wouldn’t discard it but I also wouldn’t let the GFS ruin anyone’s vibe

That was an event that was sniffed out really far in advance, and had some absolutely radical clown maps... Coastal plains getting blasted with 20-30 inches for a few runs. Cantore went down to Charleston for an ice storm, but i think he got cold rain. The orientation may be different, but in terms of long duration, plume of moisture ahead of a positively tilted trough with arctic air bleeding in, i think it's a decent match.

Generally thinking that the store brand version of this event is that late January event we had in 2014; Raleigh got about 2 inches of pixie dust, Wilmington got 2 inches of sleet.

Folks, occurred to me a few days ago while buying vintage lamps that if I can buy a vintage lamp, I can probably spend some money on a pay site- is wxbell still the leader here?

1048 ensemble mean 9 days out over southern canada is absolutely bonkers. GFS ENS simply put, leagues better than the GFS for us.

^found the board member with a generator I admire your fortitude but if this a long duration overrunning affair then someone very well could see an inch of ice followed by a once every 3-5 year cold snap and frankly I don’t know if I want to be that household

Hate to burst the bubble but sleet/zr will be on the table for most of the solutions that we see over the next few days

he's totally right and even though i dont have charts offhand model verification scores did take a plunge right around early-mid march

Main difference between the 18z gfs and other fantasy runs is that it's *plausible*. Star of this show is a big high that has great Op and Ensemble support for 9 days out. Anything that runs into it, or underneath it, has the potential to be big. I think most people grasp that yeah, that run was a perfect storm, and future renditions will be less than perfect. 00z GFS could be very disappointing! But let's go ahead and stake out that this has more credence than your typical fantasyland snow dumper.

i need a cigarette after that run

18z GFS is a banger for the entire board. Let's reel this in. I get it, yeah, 9-10 days out, but usually you can begin to hear the big dogs barking at this range.

not necessarily... just because a high is strong doesn't mean the synoptics producing it can't tick northward over a couple of cycles!

The CMC is an unserious solution to me, I don't think 1040mb surface pressures are making it to Mexico... Overall, the SIGNAL I'm keeping tabs of next few days is this massive honkin high pressure descending from Canada, which would make overrunning winter precip absurdly easy.

BTW- not exactly out of the conversation! EPS high of 1045 9 days out is pretty spectacular......

Lmao, I applaud the end of the 00z EURO for basically showing December 1989 part two at the end of the run, an event so near and dear to my heart that the date is my phone's lock code. I mean that with no hyperbole- it's basically its synoptic twin. Guys, i don't know if the threats in the next couple of days will pan out, but have solace knowing that this window probably isn't closing anytime soon.

My favorite analogy for patterns like this is the hockey powerplay analogy- For the unaware, penalties in hockey result in the fouling team losing a player for 2 minutes, so the other team has a 5-4 personnel advantage. They have a "powerplay". You can think of these like mildly favorable, cool patterns. We're more likely to score, but it's not guaranteed. Super-cold, active patterns like this are like 5-3 powerplays, where a fouling team loses 2 players for 2 minutes. It increases the ability for the powerplay team to score a lot, but in the abstract, there's still a better chance that you don't score than the other way around. Just the way it is living in the south!

Agreed haha ive seen so many “historic” cold blasts on 7+ day guidance get whittled down to less impressive cold over the years that it doesn’t even register with me anymore. It’s a complete blind spot. It’s almost always a a lock to not verify.

i'm not too enthused on superbowl sunday. based on where this longwave trough is looking to set up, I don't see things coming far enough south/east for us for this thing not to be a cutter, in whatever form it is (dry arctic front still on the table). I think that at least in the medium term, a better look is saturday and some of the little waves running ahead of the trough... they're suppressed now, but these features inching their way NW through different model suites seem to be in the same tier as death and taxes. On a different note, whatever is showing up around the 200 hr mark is a classic signal, and probably what i'm most excited for.

6z GFS is a shortwave flinging some overrunning precip ahead of a big trough; a no frills, time tested setup that usually yields a narrow but productive strip of frozen precip. I’m keeping my eye on it!