ILMRoss

good luck, hope this turns out alright

hi. i normally hang around the southern forums but i check in here every now and then. modeling consensus collapse sucks but wanted to chime in and say that the southern storms this year fit this exact same script. things get flat and dry around the twilight of the CAMs range before somehow, someway, something trends favorably to double qpf in the northern fringes, whether its a sharper wave or favorable northern stream tweaks. generally i feel uneasy in richmond because i'm watching my once-in-a-decade snow slip through my fingers, but the script from other storms this years gives me a backstop. not trying to wishcast, just providing optimism. i recognize that this is an event that yall score if i score- rooting for us

feel like the nam has exaggerated northward push with both precip and ptype corridors all year. from the early january storm that took out water to the storm this past week, multiple runs had no snow over richmond city whatsoever. not really concerned

i'm at about two inches just south of the racetrack northern areas haven't done fantastic i feel, petersburg/chesterfield stole a lot of the frontogen early bonus imo

thanks! need to change my location, i now live in northside. really excited to get my first WSW worthy storm living here, just a bummer it comes on a sunday night

it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then

this isn't a trend i would look particularly far into just yet. we're getting *the* canonical greenland block associated with so many of our big hits... i wouldn't fret at this stage unless this model suite weakens/moves that block in a meaningful way

pretty excited about the next 6 weeks or so, hope yall are well

the good news: the eye has lost some of its symmetry the bad news: it's because of anvil spilling over from an absolutely monstrous hot tower still a lot of room for strengthening, don't want to think about where this bottoms out at

GFS is fine, at this point just happy we're stopping the bleeding tonight.

Not going to lie if the 00zssssssssss windshield wipe and come back with a vengeance tonight the broadcast mets hedging for big totals are going to look really flippin smart

Yeah, I typically like trying to have the memory of a goldfish when assessing models but I understand some upstate folks really cashed out on that last storm. Upstate folks: some detail/context on what models were good, what models sucked, etc for that situation would be greatly appreciated if you can provide.

All the established mets have probably been bit by the NW trend so many times that they're pricing that into all forecasts going forward. They're betting that later guidance will wind-shield wiper back to more qpf-rich solutions, which is reasonable. How about let's get the 3km NAM past 00z Saturday before we really start cliff diving.

jeez everyone totals were cut but still looks like a fine storm and we haven't even gotten to the GFS; feels like a funeral in here

RDU worrying about the best totals going to the east and relying on the NW trend to throw precipitation back? This must be what it feels like to live in Winston Salem.