ILMRoss

pretty excited about the next 6 weeks or so, hope yall are well

the good news: the eye has lost some of its symmetry the bad news: it's because of anvil spilling over from an absolutely monstrous hot tower still a lot of room for strengthening, don't want to think about where this bottoms out at

GFS is fine, at this point just happy we're stopping the bleeding tonight.

Not going to lie if the 00zssssssssss windshield wipe and come back with a vengeance tonight the broadcast mets hedging for big totals are going to look really flippin smart

Yeah, I typically like trying to have the memory of a goldfish when assessing models but I understand some upstate folks really cashed out on that last storm. Upstate folks: some detail/context on what models were good, what models sucked, etc for that situation would be greatly appreciated if you can provide.

All the established mets have probably been bit by the NW trend so many times that they're pricing that into all forecasts going forward. They're betting that later guidance will wind-shield wiper back to more qpf-rich solutions, which is reasonable. How about let's get the 3km NAM past 00z Saturday before we really start cliff diving.

jeez everyone totals were cut but still looks like a fine storm and we haven't even gotten to the GFS; feels like a funeral in here

RDU worrying about the best totals going to the east and relying on the NW trend to throw precipitation back? This must be what it feels like to live in Winston Salem.

Yeah sheesh. Looking at things seemed the NAM family made the trough a little more diffuse and spread out; less sharp and the precip must of responded to that.

Gonna be honest and maybe this is my inner weenie but I'm tossing that NAM run. As it was progressing on 5h I thought precip would hold serve. The precip shield at 21z Friday looked suspiciously dry.

I know I posted this entire sleet manifesto a little earlier but the caveat is that if that northern shortwave keeps digging southward and retains some of its punch/integrity, we really get the best of both worlds. Storm would be able to draw more moisture and heights would be depressed (and overall temp profiles would look a lot better). Amped doesn't necessarily mean more mixing issues if the shortwave that's being amped is also digging more to the south.

Don't want to jinx it but things look better on the GFS. I think a run with tangible improvements is on the way

Not like this is news to anybody but good lord the NAM is a nuke. Would be early frontrunner for *the* storm of the 2020s. Northern stream looked better and it would be really killer if we could keep up some more southerly adjustments with the northern stream. I really thought thermals would be less borderline for Raleigh but the beefier northern shortwave was able to add a bit more ridging and keep things relatively warm.

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...) The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger. I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue.

GFS with 4 distinct shortwaves to keep track up at hour 84, lol good luck. Forecasting this is like defending one of those Chiefs plays where they have Tyreek Hill in motion and Kelce in the slot with two of their speed guys in the WR role