I wouldn’t worry about the super cold looks on the models, they havnt panned out all winter, why would they start now? Yesterday was supposed to be “ deadly” cold, I had highs and lows about 8-10 degrees below normal.
I don’t know about your backyard, but down here, we are forecast to hit 43 or so today, and GSP says clouds roll in before dark, so almost no radiational cooling will be nil! With light rates, temp won’t wetbulb much, even with DPs in the teens