mackerel_sky

Nino winters are the best! Look at all our snow!

3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

That high has a January 88 look to it!

High is down to 1038 on 0z.  Cold bias

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Wow, not sure I've ever seen anything quite like that modeled. But that NEGA/ Upstate warm bubble though! 

This model needs a serious update.

That map is truth! Ask @burrel2 

Couldn’t draw a truer snow map! #GOSPEL!

18z FFS snow total!

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambler, I was looking at the d10-15 on the 18z GEFS.  At 500, it backed it up.  The CFSv2 at 12z has the same deal.  Cold is pressing and the airmass is colder.  You know, I didn't look at the 12z EPS, but it has the same setup.  The cold is pressing under the SE ridge.  Not sure I buy that...again, we saw that once early in January on modeling and it busted.  The 500 pattern won.  So, I think we have to take into account that modeling has been far too cold at LR and we have to take into account(weighted much less obviously) that modeling was too warm during a pattern change in November.  Holston, do you think you could post a gif of the daily mslp anomoly from d10-15 of the EPS(edit)?  Watch that high spread out.  I didn't look at the surface.  The trend at 12z is for a much bigger high in the northern Rockies that spreads eastward.  2m surface temps and temp change reflect this d10-15.  Pushes all of the way to the Apps.  Holston, I think the WxBell analytics page might have more increments and provide a better look on the mslp anomaly.  If you need me to, I can just post a screen shot.  Need the daily version vs 7-day version.  Thanks again.  

@weathertree4u, that is ice city verbatim.  They have been cutting trees off power lines in my neighborhood for weeks on end.  It is a sign!  LOL.

 

Overall, I suspect if this occurs it happens over the Ohio Valley...but at least it is interesting.  

 

That high has a January 88 look to it!

41 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Don't waste your time looking at the 18z GFS, I just did and will never get that time back.................. 

You don’t like 3 day duration ice storms? I would pay money for y’all to get to enjoy that!!

39 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Don't waste your time looking at the 18z GFS, I just did and will never get that time back.................. 

JB says it’s happening!

Well, kiss the next weekend possibility (8,9) CJ already talking about frozen! What a weenie!

2 hours ago, WarmNose said:

At least it’s not an analfronal cutter yet. We could honestly use the rain. Need the crappy beds as far up on the bank as we can get them. Beetlespins aren’t as effective in deep water 

They are already on the beds! Especially after next weeks 70-80 degree temps!

What a craptastic winter! The blockbuster cold pattern that was supposed to start next week went poof, thank god irs almost over

3 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Might be time to put all of our eggs in that trailing ULL basket..Need that flow out of the NW after the rain

Yeah , we get our best snows at 45-50 degrees!

That Sunday system on the GFS, an early bonus snow! 850s are good, BL might be a torch!? I’ll take ULL graupel, call it a winter!

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In other news, I saw my first flake of the season today... In Indianapolis on a work trip. Currently 33 with on again off again flurries

Win! 

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS is considerably weaker with the 7th system. With that said, more importantly is the overall pattern is still complete crap. The SE Ridge is not going anywhere except for quick relaxations here and there. It just isn't in the cards this year.

Widreman??

4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Over/Under 36 hours before it’s a rainy apps rubber?

I say by Sunday, we will still be seeing a wintry event for the following Friday! The Euro will be on board and this place will be lit! All the big ones are locked in at long leads!

1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

And you're buying this?

It’s the best look we’ve had all winter, and looks like an old school 80s type of storm! I’d rather be chasing fantasy storms, than fantasy pattern changes! I guess this could be both, fingers crossed though!

1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

trouble is where will the cold air come from, that's been the problem all winter.

Verbatim, temps are in the mid 20s over the upstate and CLT, while we are getting plastered with snow!

1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

trouble is where will the cold air come from, that's been the problem all winter.

The cold is coming according to the GFS, after the 4th or 5th, so fresh cold air, low developing on the front, bingo

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

At least this fantasy storm is at hour 240

There have been many ,many runs of the gfs with a storm around this time(6/7th) 

Thats is the best look yet!

5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Ok so I know it's TWC and all but it shows my lowest temp over the next 15 days as 36 and reaching 67 on Monday. Seriously? What a pathetic winter. 

BTW, just looked back at daily temps for the winter of 2011-2012, when GSP went w/o a trace. This winter has been SIGNIFICANTLY warmer. Just wow at this winter so far.

Got to warm up and get thunderstorms, then snow 10 days later!

5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Ok so I know it's TWC and all but it shows my lowest temp over the next 15 days as 36 and reaching 67 on Monday. Seriously? What a pathetic winter. 

BTW, just looked back at daily temps for the winter of 2011-2012, when GSP went w/o a trace. This winter has been SIGNIFICANTLY warmer. Just wow at this winter so far.

Winters over, if that’s even possible, since it never even started! Nothing but normal or above temps through mid February! I have not even had 1 sleet pellet. This is the worst winter I have ever experienced! The awesome 10-15 day phantom pattern changes and snowstorms, just add insult to injury!

2 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Tough mountain forecast this weekend. I booked a place on Sugar but I’m not paying $400 for the weekend to ski in a rain snow mix. I feel pretty good about it but Ray is still on the fence so that gives me cause for concern. Do you think we’ll know what we’re looking at for areas above 4K feet by Wednesday evening? Thanks

You can get a rain/snow mix for free just staying home! Gonna be a window of an opportunity Feb 5-14th!

Euro was that good?? 

4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Ensembles continue to target between the 7th-10th, couple of juicers in there too

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Seems like we were just using the same words about 3 weeks ago!?

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Yay for another 10+ day fantasy snow       

If their going to be fantasies, they should be dirty! This one is just kinky!