zenmsav6810
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Everything posted by zenmsav6810
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Interesting to put it that way. I never thought of it from that perspective before. Basically, you are saying its harder to make a good forecast because there are simply more duties and less time to sit back and take a good think.
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Maybe he wasn't using the most up-to-date "actual measurements" data. He probably has staff (maybe even unreliable staff) for that. Perhaps in the chaos of the daily news cycle, something got confused. Hard to believe he would compromise his scientific ethic or journalistic standard for ego. I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt. He was spot on with the "none to coating" region which I think is a more important/difficult forecast. Honestly how differently does one prepare for a 5.5" versus a 3 incher? that humanistic value has to be factor when judging a forecast too. hurricane1091 I know you are relatively new here but occasionally Glenn lurks on this subforum so consider your words accordingly, we like having him as a participant here even if can't necessary post his analysis. It gives some credibility/validation to what we do here.
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Yeah GMorse I guess I keep forgetting about the two wave aspect of this storm. I guess DT hasn't really made a forecast for our part of the show. I guess im not being fair.
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I meant to say "first map".... these nebulous definitions that indie forecasting shops use to cover their rear ends drive me nuts!
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DT's first call gives us a total screw job. Don't think this storm is going to do exactly that. Putting my money on Mt. Holly and Glenn on this one.
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You could actually respond to a valid point with a reasoned thought, but your pea-brain is only capable of memes.
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Seems like a stretch. Does geographic continuity play no role in this? It seems more like a convenient fix to combine the two smallest subforums into one. What's wrong with merging us with upstate NY/PA that seems to make the most sense in my book?
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Parts of that forum are 400-500 miles away from here. I frankly can't see how the lovely people of TN would care about every thunderstorm that rolls through Cape May. If this happens I will boycott this forum for its ridiculous management. Haven't you people ever hear of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."
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Seems like early winter keeps getting postponed. I know people keep talking about King Euro but what King Euro giveth, King Euro taketh. I've always advocated for Christmas happening around January 15th instead... Mother Nature owes us a white Christmas... its been awhile.
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Yeah, that makes sense. I guess we're all doomed.
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Important to remember methodology here. It's done by satellite imaging so, measurements are intermittent (depending on orbit) not to mention accurate record history might be difficult for before 1990ish. As with all optical remote sensing, these measurements are prone to occlusion error (in this case by clouds/sea water.) Also, I don't know what technically constitutes a "loss," true melting (calving events [breaks "up]) or just the loss of continuity of the Antarctic ice mass (meaning a large but complete ice shelf breaks "off") . Neabulous but important issues that probably get glazed over in non-scientific journal reporting and clickbait).
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I see mostly bullish forecasts out there. Interesting analogs. 6's forecasts annoy me. They are so afraid of busting. Glenn gets my vote. Last few years I think he verified really nicely. EPAWA looked really similar to another outlook I saw but I forgot to save the links. High uncertainty over outcomes but high certainty on the mechanics of how winter is going to work this year.
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EPAWA is a bull for NW burb winter for what its worth. : http://epawaweather.com/2016/11/02/epawa-2016-2017-winter-outlook/ Pretty in detailed analysis looks a lot like this one posted above: https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/
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On the flip side backloaded winters normally work out well for us in the burbs.
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I agree with the information overload comments. I don't mind the idea of a ten day, but would rather see it as a 7-day with a three-day extension presented separately.... at the very least it needs to be one line, the two line setup is not effective. I've long thought that NBC 10's production values have been below the other networks in the area, however I think the forecasts are more on point.
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Also the nws is eliminating all caps text in their alerts and reports. Should help readability. Seems to make sense to me after all computer and telecommunications had com a long way...
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I know. I can't find the comment he made on facebook basically to this effect regarding his system. In my view, a forecast is a forecast. If you bust, you bust. If nail it as pronged then good. What I don't understand is how amateur and independent forecasters can basically get away with these multi-staged forecasts and not call it a bust even if the first forecast was never even close to correct.
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No, the 8-12" forecast doesn't count... that was the first guess map which is different from his frist call.
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This is his official final snow map.
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DT has really been all over the place with this storm. I feel bad for him: I bet his beloved Euro is stressing him out these last few days.
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DT has a modest snow for Friday.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
zenmsav6810 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'll say PDII because I was in 3rd grade and the nieghbors and I had a snowball fight of all snowball fights. It helped because I was off from school for a few days and I remember my patience with my teacher were wearing quite thin! '96 was good too, I spoke my first word "wow" when I saw the snow. 3rd and 4th for me are the Snowmegedon I and II. 5th is the ice storm from two years ago (first time I saw such destruction in a winter storm first hand). -
Ah makes more sense. Indeed he is probably one of the most aggressive forecasters in pushing the Euro's newest threats.
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Looks like DT already started a thread. I agree too early. No ego's here just trying to get more info.
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Do we know what the ensembles and OP looked like last time at this point before the last storm?