zenmsav6810

That seems to be almost a fallacy or bug.... wouldn't the probability of 8"+ be included in the mathematical intersection of 12"+ ....if it was the probability of 8-12" then it would make sense as the probability of 8-12" would be part of the complement of the probability of 12"+ Of course weenie rule #119 is never look modeled snow in the mouth!

That makes me feel better actually! Thanks!

It triggers me that nw chester isn't in light blue. It's like they should continue the border from berks count to the east west median in Chester. We are used to getting snow in French creek, elverson, pheonixville, Bucktown, malvern, pottstown, Coventryville, Nantahala, chestersprings....we can handle it.

Money comes to snow or a fool and his flakes soon parted?

This thread isn't to debate vendor mets but I find that the WFMZ forecasters are pretty good, I think they get the broadcast/scientist mix correct. Personally I think Cecily has a broad appeal, however I notice she has a tendency to "lawyer" her forecasts to protect against the downside. From what I've come to understand is that the Candian is a bit of an after thought for many forecasters. I notice it does best in our area with ice events where there is a lot of bombogensis going on.

Easy does it-- lets just keep the forum rules in mind. This is intended to be a somewhat professional foum. Professional forecasters (and high level ametuers) tend to get upset with people that get overly emotional with forecast/outcome. If we want those valued contributers to continue to grace our presence here we should keep their user experience in mind. We have the added responsibility here that we are self moderated in this forum. For that reason I think the quicker the storm the better. I'm hoping for a regular old blitz blizzard. So quick it never has a chance to warm up.... Earlier probably helps us out too with the precip type. I think these kinds of setups work out well for us NW of 95. They are almost like mini-miller A's. The frontgensis aspect of this storm might be getting over amped by the NAM especially the hi-res. I have a feeling the Euro has a good final answer to this storm despite being 1000 miles off course 36ish hours ago! Never under estimate having snow on the ground for helping with temperatures. Snow comes to snow like money comes to money!

I seem to remember a storm maybe back in 2008, '09 or '10 that seemed to have a real similar look to this storm Im going to 3-8" for the collar counties of philly.

By all means come post with us more. We don't really have a moderator, sure sometimes we get off track, but for the most part everyone gets along and we keep things productive. Its definitely not the feeding freenzy like the forums to our north and south!!

I'm a Penn State educated engineer myself but I know the met programs there are quite good but difficult to get into at the grad level. There are some decent alternative paths into the met field which might also provide some fall back careers. One option might be to get an M.S. in physics with a professor that studies climate physics. There are similar approaches when considering computer science. Millersville also offers a perhaps overlooked met program at the b.s. level. They have a climate science applications program at the M.S level. I have an aquintance that went through their Met b.s. and she has a career as a meteorologist. https://www.millersville.edu/programs/climate-science-applications.php Lyndon state in vermont is another school that is good but overlooked. I dont know if they have a graduate program. I know that they have a program concentration in graduate studies so that might be an option if you want to bulk up your c.v. before entering a more competitive degree program. I'm sure Mississippi is a fine school. Go there if you'll think you'll enjoy it and enjoy your career prospects afterwards.

Curious I had some pretty bad road conditions tonight coming home on rt 23. Way worse than this morning.

Talk about a microclimate!

Sometimes I wonder if they write thes kinds of things as weenie fan service: "....still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance."

For this being a true bonafide 4-parter now this might have over taken 2016 as one of my top storms even though my backyard received far less snow. I seem to remember similar scattered snow showers following PD2 in 2003 for a few days. Of course '96 had the Norlun event after the fact.

2001 was classically bad (so bad it ruined a guy's career)... 2015 was ironically bad in the sense that we should have never fallen for it in the first place.

Although I think there was already a GD1 and GD2 before I was born so maybe GD3?

GD1 for groundhog day...seems apt considering the analog.

One of the reasons I haven't commented until now. There's no dance the snow gods like better than the weenie jump... it eggs them on!

Looks like we owe someone an apology.... lol nope.

Precipitation type issues are probably because of strong upper level convection. Hopefully as the sun starts to go down this improves. Has to get worse before it gets better.

I had about 2" of sleet that storm. Still ended up with about 23" as a total.

This storm is beginning to remind me of PDII

the cognitive dissonance is overwhelming ......

Seems like its running a bit behind the others but I cant be certain

Dry slot in Pottstown

Don't count your Norluns before they hatch!