CIK62

Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 9degs. BN. Month to date is -2.5[48.6]. Should be near -5.8[43.9] by the 17th. 30* here at 6am. Back to 32* by 7:40am. 35* by 9am. 37* at 10am. 39* at 11am. 40* at Noon. 41* at 1pm. 42* at 2pm. 43* at 3pm. 44* ar 4pm EURO/GFS both about 1" of Snow on the 13th.

Just reached 32* here at 9:25pm. Did touch 40* in the early afternoon. The third week of November is looking boring and near Normal.

Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 10degs. BN. Month to date is -0.7[50.6]. Should be near -5.3[44.2] by the 16th. 35* here at 6am. 36* by 8am. 37* at 9am. 39* by Noon. All Snow threats seem dead for next two weeks.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 8 degs. BN. Month to date is -0.7[50.8]. Should be near -4.9[44.7] by the 15th. EURO is down to just 1" of Snow on the 13th. 50* here at 6am.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 7degs. BN. Month to date is -0.5[51.1]. Should be about -4.5[45.1] by the 14th. 48.0* here at 6am. EURO is 3", 12" and now back to 2" of Snow on the 13th. Outside of last November's mid-month outburst, such big snowstorms have only occurred during the last week of month. But with GW, the gear shift may not be so smooth, and another anomalous event is possible.

Yep, EURO is 12" around the 13th, 14th for the City. This is up from 3" on the previous run, so issue far from settled.

Next 8 days are averaging 44degs. or 6degs. BN. Month to date is -1.9[49.9]. Should be near -4.6[45.9] by the 13th. 56.8* here at 6am. 59.1* by 8am. 60.5* by 10am. Got to 61.5* in early PM.

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.,or about 5+degs. BN. Month to date is -1.7[50.3]. Should be near -4.5[45.4] by the 12th. 44.5* here at 5am. 46.0 by 7am. 48.0* at 8am. 49.8* at 9am. 53.0* by Noon. 55.0* by 2pm. Got to 57.0* around 3:30pm.

Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or about 3degs. BN. 45.3* here at 5am. (6am EST).

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 4degs. BN. 43.5* here at 6am.

The first 8 days of November are averaging 48degs., or 1deg. BN. ( used 70/46 for today). 46.8* at 6am. 52.7* by 1pm. (got down to 45.7* near 7am.)

October ended at +3.0[59.0].

The BN air that is coming in tomorrow could last all month, till the first week of December----and then quickly return. Our earliest snow this year in the City may occur near Nov. 14. This is from the CFSv2. Maybe that stratospheric warming weak or strong is going to start to play a role---as it always does during the cold air season. Really do not know if that possibility is somehow incorporated in these LR Analog Models or not. Some SW was occurring all summer w/o mention.

The last day of October is averaging 66degs, or about 13 degs. AN. Month to date is +2.7[59.7]. October should end at +3.0[59.9]. The first week of November is averaging 51degs., or about 1deg. AN. PM Update on the first 7> 49degs. or about 1deg. BN. 61.7* here at 6am. 65.7* by Noon. 66.0* by 2pm.

When it comes to Flood Insurance.................................................... NATURE LIKELY TO REACT FASTER THAN THE GOVERNMENT https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2019/10/28/flirting-with-disaster-flood-zones-still-uninsured-years-after-sandy/ Of special interest to me: https://www.brooklynpaper.com/stories/42/44/bn-coney-island-flood-preparedness-2019-11-01-bk.html Meanwhile available funds go unspent: http://brooklyn.news12.com/story/41263270/city-comptroller-report-only-54-of-superstorm-sandy-funding-used Lack of a flood plan for Hunt's Pt. Market: https://thecity.nyc/2019/11/no-flooding-protections-in-store-for-citys-largest-food-hub.html btw: EDC is operated like a private company, but uses your tax dollars as the 'risk capitol' and regardless of how well any employee preforms, they must all go when a new Mayor comes in.

The last 2 days of October are averaging 64degs., or about 12degs., AN. Month to date is +2.5[59.7]. October should end near +3.1[60.0]. 59.0* to 60.0* here 6am-7am, some Fog,>1mi. The first 6 days of November are averaging 50degs., or just Normal. Nov. 1-15 looks BN for 3/4 of the US. West Coast and Florida are out of the mix.

Quick guideline numbers for Novembers around here: 850mb T goes from +5C to 0C and the 500mb Heights from 5680m to 5600m during the course of the month. These would the Normals as the month progresses. For the first half of November we range from +15C to -15C on those 850mb. Ts.

The last 3 days of October are averaging 63degs., or about 11degs. AN. Month to date is +2.5[59.8]. October should end near +3.2[60.1]. 54.8* here at 6am. The first 5 days of November are averaging 50/51degs., or just Normal. As a curiosity, only 39% of the days so far this year have been BN. This is better than Tampa, Florida's 18%. They are also completing their 18th straight AN month. We are 7 AN/3 BN so far this year.

CFSv2 is BN for 6 weeks straight once the colder air gets here, that is until mid-December. I hope the BN is not BS in disguise. Still w/o any skill, but getting there: The above conclusion is from an other site.

Last 4 days of October keeping an average near 62degs., or about 9degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[59.9]. October should end near +3.2[60.1]. The first 4 days of November are averaging near 51degs., or just about Normal. 58.1* here at 6am.

Sunny breaks here and 67.4* at 3:30pm. 68.8* at 4pm, stratus clouds back in now.

The last 5 days of October are still averaging near 60degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.2[59.8]. October should end near +3.0[59.9]. The first 3 days of November are averaging 53degs., or about 2degs. AN. 59.9* here at 6am.

The last 6 days of October erupt to average 61degs., or about 9degs. AN.( complete bust squared) Month to date is +2.1[59.9]. At this rate October may end at +3.2[60.1]. Not as nutty as last November which was +6.0 for Nov. 1-7 and -6.2 for Nov. 8-30 giving a -3.3 overall. So still some hope. In order for this SON to end up BN, November will have to be about -5.5[42.2]. Last time November was that low is in 1976. How 'bout that Foot of Snow on the 7th! 57.3* here at 6am.

The last 7 days of October going out in style at an average of 58degs., or about 6degs. AN. No BN days apparently, afterall. Month to date is +2.0[60.0]. October should end at +2.7[59.6]. 54.3* here at 6am. 61.2* by Noon.

From above post: Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The second half of November could be warmer than normal according to both the latest EPS weeklies and CFSv2. The EURO CONTROL starts November near Normal or AN, then goes berserk with a continuous -10 to -15 degree F departure for remainder of month around us. Why such a difference?