CIK62

CFSv2 500mb Anomalies for the next 10 Weeks: (around our neck of the woods) B, B, N+, N-, B+, B+, ,B++, N-(the classic Jan Thaw), N-, B+ So no AN week for two months+ on the 500mb average heights. Quite an output for a system that rarely ever shows anything BN in the long run. I hope I did not just dream this!

The last 6 days of November are averaging 47degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is -5.1[43.6]. November should end near -3.4[44.3]. 41* here at 6am. 47* by 10am. 49* by Noon. 52* by 2pm. 54* by 3pm.

Last 7 days of November are averaging 46.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -5.2[43.6]. November should end at -3.3[44.4], same as last November, but with a warm ending, instead of a warm start. 45* here at 6am. 47* at 7am. Down to 43* by 11am, rain heavier. The period near Dec. 05, has some part of every one of the 48 states, with at least a 50% chance of reaching a 32* low. Florida is exempted along with southern Texas.

Cross Section Winds on TG morning: Manhattan is at bottom, center. 30kts. average, with I suppose 40kts,+ gusts, if there is good mixing. And don't forget streamlining effects on air blowing through the side streets, as parade goes N---S. So maybe this will be problematic. courtesy AccuWeather.

The last 8 days of November are averaging 45.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -5.2[43.8]. November should end near -3.5[44.2]. 36* here at 6am. 41* by 11am. 45* by 2pm.

So this was October 2019: Second only to October 2015.

The next 8 days are averaging 44.5degs., or just AN. (used 56/35 for today) Month to date is -5.5[43.7]. Should be near -4.0[43.8] by the 30th. 48* here at 6am. 53* by 11am.

A Reminder: That visible tonight from about 11:30pm to 12:15am (if sky is clear, which seems dubious according to the models) is a quick-but supposedly spectacular meteor shower. It should emanate from near Orion in the lower se. sky.

Next 8 days are averaging 47.5degs., or about 4degs. AN Month to date is -5.7[43.6]. Should be near -3.1[44.7] by the 29th. 41* here at 6am. 47* by 11am. 49* at Noon. 51* at 1pm. 53* by 2:30pm. The action on the Wed. before TGD seems to have faded. Wind on Thursday could have been a problem for the parade balloons. GFS has week frontal passage only. CMC no action. EURO somewhat like the GFS.

The next 8 days are averaging 45.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -5.9[43.6]. Should be near +3.7[44.2] by the 28th 42* here at 6am. 41* at 7am and 8am. 42* at 9am 46* by 1pm.

Next 8 days are averaging 44degs , or about 0.5degs. BN. Month to date is -6.1[43.6]. Should be near -4.4[43.7] by the 27th. 43* here at 6am. 47* by 10am. 50* by Noon. Boring till Dec. 11, on the CFS when it comes to snow. Sorry, but there wasn't anything else to look at.

I think DT went through that whole video w/o mentioning SSW's and the QBO, (direction/direction reversals/speed). It is nice to know that BN Nov.'s have been followed by AN Dec.'s for a decade----but that is just a statistical connection---what is the conceptual theory behind this behavior? That is what we need to know.

Next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 1deg. BN Month to date is -6.0[43.8]. Should be near -5.1[43.9] by the 26th. 38* here at 6am with drizzle. 41* by 10am.

Next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or just about Normal. Month to date is -5.8[44.3]. Should be near -3.9[44.5] by the 25th. 32* here at 6am. 34* at 7am. 35* at 8am. 37* at 9am. 41* by 11am. 43* by 1pm. SREF Plumes down to 0.30" Rain late today into Monday. Two days ago it had 1", starting this PM. Coastal has consolidated near 31.3N 75.4W, this AM---a little se. from yesterday at this time. Rest of month still a winterwise bore(sans TGD?).

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 2degs. BN Month to date is -5.4[44.8]. Should be near -4.2[44.2] by the24th. 37* here at 6am. 35* by 8am. SREF Plumes down to 0.60" Rain from Sun. PM to Mon. PM. Storm evolving near 32.5N 76.4W at 6am.

My Motto for those who choose to accept the challenge of Seasonal Winter Forecasting is.......................... Talk Complicated and Carry a Melted Snowball.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 4degs. BN. Month to date is -5.5[44.8]. Should be near -4.9[43.4] by the 23rd. 38* here at 6am. 43* by 10am. 46* by Noon. 50* by 2pm. SREF is 1" Rain from 10am Sun. to 10am Mon. Latest run down to 0.75".

Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -5.0[45.5]. Should be near -5.0[43.4] by the 22nd. 31* here at 6am. 38* by 9am.! 42* by Noon. 44* at 1pm. (nice WAA). 47* by 3pm. Snow threats are weak, despite the coastal actions, over the next two weeks. GFS tries to end November where it started---in the 60's.

EURO really has three different Atlantic coast lows over the next 10 days. Let's see if we get any piece of the action.

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 7degs. BN. Month to date is -3.7[46.9]. Should be -5.0[43.9] by the 21st. 24* here at 6am. 25* by 8am. 31* by Noon. 33* by 2pm. 35* by 3pm.

We are better off with No Snow. After last November's miscue, we went 63 days w/o anything. btw: Getting snow squall here at 12:20pm, but T is 38*. 37* at 12:30pm. 36* at 1:10pm and squall long gone. 35* at 2pm. 34* at 3:00pm. 33* by 5pm. 32* finally reached here by 6:30pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or about 8degs. BN. Month to date is -3.3[47.4]. Should be near -5.3[43.4] by the 20th. (used 57/25 for today) I, too, reached 60* yesterday. 57* here at 6am. 57* with drizzle at 7am. 54* with drizzle at 8am. 44*, breezy at 9am., getting there. 41* by 11am. 39* at Noon. Models are ooSnow and we are ooLuck. Next two weeks could be a borefest winterwise. CFSv2 is near Normal+ for second halve of month. Does show large upper low over GL/Ohio at month's end. Maybe that will tickle us some.

Just as surface T is reaching and falling below 0C, the air is drying out. NYC is bottom center and purple line is 0C. The 850mb T is -3C. We are down near 30F here. J

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 7degs. BN. Month to date is -4.2[46.8]. Should be -5.4[43.8] by the 19th. Big story will have to be the T, since virtually no Snow is showing for NYC. 51* here at 6am. (unit seems pre-programed at this T for the last 15 hours.) 53* by 8am. 57* by 11am. 58* at Noon. 59* by 2pm. 60* by 4pm.

Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 7degs. BN. Month to date is -4.0[47.0]. Should be near -5.4[43.7] by the 18th. Yesterday the T scooted up to 44* here by 4pm. I should be there by 9am. today. EURO is 1" of Snow and GFS is 0" on the 13th. 42* here at 6am. 44* by 8:30am. 47* by 11am. 51* by 1pm. 52* at 2pm.