CIK62

Next 7 days now up to an average of +6 or +7 at 45degs. Maybe some snow cover can give us a more favorable boundary layer and tame the AN regime for a while. If the 11th/12th fails, it is probably onto the 17th, 22nd/23rd.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -5.3[36.0]. Should be -1.4[38.8] by the 16th. 31* here at 6am. 35* by 9am. 40* by Noon. 42* by 3pm. Our three major models are 3" to 5" of Snow on the 11th/13th. The Cobb Method using the GFS is a Trace, that washes away immediately.

For the 11th/14th snow chance the EURO is a T, GFS 6", CMC 5". Any snow should be washed away anyway. The cold air at the surface is lagging behind the 850mb level. Where is DT on this, since N.Carolina and Virginia, his venue, seem to have a better chance than we do?

Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN. Month to date is -5.2[36.3]. Should be around -1.6[38.5] by the 15th. 34* here at 6am. 37* by Noon. 40* by 3pm, The major models are full of 50-degree days and loads of rain over the next 10 to 15 days. Just a T to 2" near the 11th., which promises to melt or wash away at once anyway. Yesterday in talking about the LR EURO, I neglected to note that the CFS has the opposite look---every traveling 30-Day period, including the one ending Jan. 20, is BN for most of the country, it seems.

Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong. Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days. Christmas week did not look like a gift either. Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area. From above post: From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns. Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so. (1) Is there something to this anecdote? (2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this? (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.) >>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve. Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around? You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 2.5degs. AN. 36* here at 6am. 40* by 10am. 44* by Noon. 46* at 1pm. 48* at 2pm. 49* at 3pm. Our 3 major models all give us 2X our daily water(lol) over the next 10 to 15 days with two blow off T events. That could have been 20" to 30" of snow. Where is our CAD to the rescue? I use the GFSx output for the Next 8. It is only an estimate.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN. 37* here at 6am. 41* by 11am. 42* by 1pm (high) Get ready for about 3 '50 degree days' over the next 10 days, before any sensible winter action returns, mid-month. GFS has 15" in Atlanta Ga., mid-month---but less here on current setup.

The next 10 days are averaging 41degs., or 2degs. AN. 35* here at 6am. 36* at 7am. 38* by 11am. btw: In the 1993 blizzard, the models got everything right 120 hours out, except for the 10"-20" along the southern periphery in the Deep South. That's a decade of snow for them, in one day.

I am noticing that the GFS brings the hammer down hard starting the 10th. in a place like Minneapolis et al, with all sub-zero days for the duration of run. I believe big things could happen between the 10th---18th even here. Of course this extreme output can be caused by noise and hash data being ingested. The analogy of a room full of people, bunched into various groups, all but one of which is engaged in some sort of inane palaver. Can the eavesdropping equipment zero in on the salient group, while filtering the others out---thus learning something of general import, that can be used to make a prediction.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or just about Normal. 32* here at 6am, flurries. 34* by Noon. 37* by 2pm. All the major models have Rain with a temperature blow off to near 60* by the 10th., then a sharp drop---with some backend snow by the 12th.

Gee, I wonder if we'll get some snow on the 10th, EURO is boasting a high of 67* now! Then it flips 45 degrees!!.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 1deg. BN. 39* here at 6am and going nowhere apparently. 38* at 7am. 37* by 10am. 36* by Noon. 35* at 12:30pm with snow. 34* at 1:30pm and at least the beach surface has begun to turn white. Back to 35* and no snow falling by 5pm. 34* by 7pm with snow again. 33* at 8pm, snowing. 32* at 8:30pm, snowing. Most major models have from 0" to 4" of Snow for NYC on their latest runs. Maybe 6" on the NAM 12km---if anyone in the City sees the start of measurable snow this afternoon instead of tomorrow AM as storm sputters out.

The GFS LAMP has no 32* surface T for the next 24 hours in NYC, so early Tues AM will have to be when any snow might occur. Even Albany gets to 32* over the next 24 hours on the LAMP. https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC All the models head for 60^ and Rain in 8-10 days anyway. The EURO-EPS flips twice by 30+ degrees in a 4 day period at that time. Fearing a long wait for Arctic air to produce a slam dunk snowstorm around here.

The first 8 days of December are averaging 37degs., or about 3degs. BN. Storm Summary: EURO 4", GFS 1"(has long breaks in precip.), CMC 11", NAM(Cobb) 4". All models Rain and 50degs.+ in about 9 days. And most importantly, 33* here at 6am. 34* at 7am. 36* by 10am. 35* at 11am. 34* at Noon. 40* by 5pm. Not a runaway AN for us, but not good. The next 2 Weeks already looking like the last box. Warming after the 5th., while averages should confer a downward or even slope over a 10 day period, 6th-15th.

November ended at -3.8[43.9].

The GFS has Manhattan at 34 to 46 during the duration of the storm. Even the Albany District barely stays below 32 for the duration. At any rate the EURO 18Z is around 7" still. The CMC 12Z was 6". SREF is 4". GFS is hard on itself and has less than 1". The 18Z NAM by the Cobb Method is 13"+, while the GFS is all Rain, nearly 2" is wasted In our biggest snowstorm ever, about 5 years ago, the NAM was spitting out some 40"+ Cobb Method runs. So we did get 30.5" at JFK. btw: The Cobb Method for Albany is NAM 23", GFS 9". Official:

The first week of December is averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. BN. Snow summary Dec. 2-3: EURO 4", GFS 2", CMC 3". Cobb Method GFS 1" but the NAM is 11" and still snowing at hour 84!(Tues.7am)----storm is outside the NAM's accurate period, however. Officially: After this event, prepare to be bored or disappointed--since the Total Snowfall for the next 384 hours all around here, looks the same as the next 72 hour total. DTwxRisk says you can WYA with the rest of December. Ah! X-MAS to the rescue.

The last day of November is averaging 44degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is -3.8[44.1] and should end there. 33* here at 6am. 32* at 7am 40* by Noon. 44* by 2pm.

The last 2 days of November are averaging 38degs., or 5degs. BN Month to date is -3.6[44.4]. November should end at -3.8[43.9], or 0.5 less than last November. 31* here at 6am. 35* by 11am. 37* by Noon. 41* by 3pm. GFS is 2", CMC is 6", and EURO is 7" for Dec. 2-3. Cobb Method is 2.1" of Rain! --- with some mixing. Subsequent threats out to 10 days seem to have vanished, snow wise. Do not expect to follow this on local radar. It is down for 5 days during a software/hardware upgrade. This is part of a nationwide program.

EURO is looking like 10"+ now for City. I hope this is not an inane question: How do you measure a storm that has Snow to Rain to Snow, as we could get here in places? Does someone have to witness the changeover, record the snow board total up to that time, and then witness it going back to Snow, measure that period on a separate snow board, then add them up? Or do you just go by what is left on the snow board when all precipitation ends? Say 5" upfront, which is washed away completely, but then ends with 2" of snow on the board. Is it a 5", 2" or 7" snowstorm, I wonder!?

The last three days of November are averaging 42degs., or about 2degs. BN.(used 55/41 for today) Month to date is -3.8[44.8]. November should end near -3.5[44.2]. 47* here at 6am. 46* at 7am. Back to 47* at 8am. 51* by 11am. 48* by 2pm. 42* by 6pm. 39* by 9pm. GFS is 0", EURO is 2", CMC is 6"( after a string of 0"s)[Too bad this event isn't a hurricane], Cobb Method is all Rain.

The last 4 days of November are averaging 44degs., or just Normal. Month to date is -4.3[44.0]. November should end at -3.7[44.0]. 51* here at 6am. 53* by 8am. 55* by 11am. Still 55* at Noon. 56* at 1pm. EURO/GFS are 1" and 4" now for Dec.2,3. Model outputs have been psychotic. Temps. for the storm have ranged from 26-50 and precipitation from 0"-2" and Snow as high 10", over last 3 days. I want my taxpayer's money back!

The last 5 days of November are averaging 47.5degs., or about 4degs.AN. Month to date is -4.9[43.7]. November should end near -3.4[44.3]. 46* here at 6am. 50* by 10am. 52* by 11am. 59* by 2pm. Failed to reach 60* Both GFS/EURO are under 3" Snow for Dec. 02.

GFS really has a complex setup for the early December storm. 36* and Rain to 46* and Rain to 26* with 5" of tail end Snow. Total precipitation is 2". This evolution looks like a long shot and I bet something simpler actually evolves.

The early Cobb Method snow outlook for this is 2.4" Rain and 5.0" Snow Looks too complicated to actually happen as indicated. I would bet on all Snow or more likely all Rain, some slush.