CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is -2.2[37.1]. Should be about -0.6[37.4] by the 28th. 23* here at 6am. 25* by 9am. 29* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. All remaining 5-Day Dec. periods appear to be AN for T's into Jan. on the GEFS. A little better for the GEPS. EURO Weeklies look AN for us in Jan., and opposite to the CFS appearance. Not a runaway AN setup (yet). Draw a line N-S from Dakotas to Texas and west of it is BN---we are an island of near Normal in a sea of AN T's. Maybe the 46-Day snow total of about 15" is saving us. Pick your Christmas gift high T here: GEM 31, GFS 45, EURO 51.

The TeleConnections for the three major model ensemble means thru Jan. 04 are similar and not very flattering: AO, NAO >>>>> - to + PNA >>>>>neutral. EPO, WPO >>>>> + The GFS Control Member does fall off the shelf in Jan. to a -6sd. on the EPO. btw: Australia is having its problems with a record heatwave after a two year drought caused by the positive IOD. Nationwide average T may exceed previous record of 104.5 today. All-time high may pass 122 today also.

Next 8 days are averaging 36.5degs., or about 1deg. AN. Month to date is -1.5[38.0]. Should be about -0.7[37.6] by the 27th. 16* here at 6am. 17* at 7am. 18* by 9am. 20* by 11am. 25* by 2pm. 26* at 3pm. 24* by 6pm. None of our major models has any fun and games for the next 8 to 10 days, either snow wise or T-wise. What is a board (bored) suppose to do?

32* with a snow squall here at 5pm. 30* at 5:07pm. Just 15 mins. worth and it has to last about 2-weeks (in your mind) before a repeat or something better. I believe it was a more violent passage last Jan. for me, on this type of event.

EURO is colder on Christmas, but real fun starts later into Jan. GFS looks like it is climbing a ladder T-wise after tomorrow. Let's not forget the EURO did have a run last [Thurs. AM] week where it showed a low of 4 and a high of 7 for the 22nd, I believe. The next run was 30 degrees higher here and 50 degrees higher upstate, where the major negative anomaly was located. It is a mortal model like the others.

Next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or about 0.5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.1[38.5]. Should be about -0.9[37.4] by the 26th. 33* here at 6am. 32* at 7am. 36* by 10am. 38* by Noon. Our main models have little of interest for the remainder of the year it seems. Some snow showers is the most we can hope for in conjunction with one Arctic like day. Well, if one can wait till Jan. 08, the CFS has a Miller A going. For reference: A 400m rise, but only a 150m drop afterward, plus this wastes two weeks. It is Christmas AM and there is SE RIDGE under my tree: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f168_ussm.gif

Christmas Week is looking like 1982. Ultimately that winter proved to be a 10-day flyby in the second week of Feb. There seems to be almost no sub-zero 850mb T's during the period. A dog chasing his own tail analogy may start to apply if early Jan. does not change this, and promises of cold slip further into the future again.

Well, the 500mb anomaly for Christmas Day here is +120m and no snow will be on the ground---so this is good for a +10deg. day w/o considering wind direction and cloud cover. Make it 50.

The next 8 days are averaging 34.5degs., or about 1deg. BN. Month to date is -0.9[38.8]. Should be about -0.9[37.4] by the 25th. 34* here at 6am. 9am- Has been 35* for most of the last 3 hours. 37* at 10am. 35* by 3pm. EURO lone hold out with 2" for today, and that will have to do for the next 10 to 15 days, as other models are zippo, with unremarkable T's, after the next 2 days.

Mr. Spock's commentary on atmospheric models: "They are mere illusions---they can not tell us the coming weather---they are to be ignored" paraphrased from the episode Spectre of the Gun.

Next 8 days are averaging 34degs., or about 2.5degs. BN. Month to date is -0.8[39.1]. Should be about -1.3[37.3] by the 24th. 35* here at 6am. 36* by 9am. 37* by 11am. 38* at Noon GFS has 0" today, with flurries Wed(LES?). CMC,EURO are 2"-3" today. CMC is the coldest over the next 10 days. SREF is 1" Snow and 1.2" liquid.

GFS LAMP keeps starting tomorrow's precipitation later and later. Temperature now up to 37 when precipitation starts during PM Hours. Several hours ago it had something happening while it was still 32 at the surface. December 22 looking strung out again, more like a frontal passage than a cohesive storm. Core of it goes south, but WAA damage will happened if this is the arrangement.

EURO WEEKLIES with regard to the WPO, EPO, AO, NAO indexes are -4sd at mid-Jan. on the Control, but the ensemble mean is so-so, near normal. As for the PNA the mean and the Control agree on the blahs. Fast jet stream destroying the Pacific Northwest ridge, would cause this I suppose.

The next 8 days are suddendly averaging 32degs., or about -4.5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.3[38.8]. Should be about -2.4[36.3] by the 23rd. Models on a colder/drier(snowless- anyway)kick this run. 43* here at 6am.

I am watching this one for the educational value. A summary of possible snow totals: GFS 0"-1", Cobb Method is 0" , GEM is 2" (but has lost the 6" it had for the 22nd), EURO is 4", SREF is 1", UKMet is too secretive. Prospects for any snow before year's end are dropping fast, so if you see some: Catch a Falling Snowflake and Put It on Your Shovel-----Save It for the Next Snowless Day.

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs. or about 2degs. AN Month to date is -2.3[37.9]. Should be about -0.6[38.1]by the 22nd. 53* here at 6am, Fog<0.1mile. T has been variable, 54* at 10am+Fog is back. 57* at Noon. 52* by 3pm, variable Fog, breezy now. GFS has no Snow anytime, EURO is 4" on the 16th-17th., GEM is 2" and then 6" on the 22nd. We could still have two more 50-Degree Days, before year ends and maybe one single digit AM

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or about 1deg. AN Month to date is -2.7[37.7]. Should be near -1.2[37.8] by the 21st. 38* here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 42* at 8am. 46* at 9am. 50* by Noon. 51* at 1pm, drizzle. 52* at 9pm, drizzle-- heavy rain during the afternoon. 54* at 10pm., rain Indeed the EURO has added back 27 degrees to the 22nd. Upstate NY increased by 50 degrees between runs. They could at least inform us that the EURO swallowed a bad banana. Otherwise major models are nearly snowless and clueless.

FLASH: EURO Suffers Nervous Breakdown------sends T down 38 degrees overnight Dec. 21 into Dec. 22 44*>>>>>>06*, but forgets about the snow. Maybe board should shift focus to the T potential, rather the Snow possibilities.

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is -2.3[38.3]. Should be about -0.1[39.1] by the 20th. 28* here at 6am. 29* by 9am. 30* at 10am. 33* by Noon. 37* by 2pm. Our three main models are 1" to 4" of Snow on the 17th/18th, with the EURO the coldest in the days after the system. Probably just going to be another in a string of mixed up events, leaving nothing white behind.

The next 8 days are averaging 39.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -2.2[38.6]. Should be about -0.3[39.0] by the 19th. 35* here and snowing, sticking to cars only. 36* at 7am, and looking more like rain--- even beach is not white like Dec.02-03. 35* at 8am, but a snow burst has whitened the beach. 34* at 9am, still some snow. (was 33* briefly) 40* by 2pm. Our three major models are at about 4" of Snow for the 17th/18th party.

These snow totals are probably being measured on a snowboard suspended a few hundred feet above ground. lol. The GFS LAMP stops all the precipitation while temperature only gets to 37 in NYC. Don't forget where the Skin T will be after two days in the 50's. And Nature is only playing the Saturday rain to make sure all snowboards are clean for the 17th/18th possibility. Models are playing ping-pong with that one now. There are too many elements of the atmosphere changing at the same time in unpredictable ways. Hang on to your favorite model(s). I have a favorite model, but she doesn't like to be squeezed by strangers. lol again

Next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 3degs. AN. (used 57/40) for today. Month to date is -3.5[37.5]. Should be about -0.5[39.2] by the 18th. Main models are 1" to 4" for tomorrow, with a really big show promised for the 18th. 58* here at 5am. 57* at 6am. Still 57* by 9am. 58* at 11am, Noon. 53* by 8pm. 47* by 10pm.

GEPS has no BN '5-Day T Periods' over the next 15 days and the GEFS has none till the one centered on the 18th. EPS appears to have none either during the next 10 days, based on its 500mb height anomalies. Overall view:

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is -5.0[36.1]. Should be about 0.0[39.5] by the 17th. Our major models are near 2"-4" of Snow for 11th.-14th. Those same models are 3/5's '50-Degree' days over the next 10 days to 15 days. What happened? The T regime changes 7 times in the next 16 days, reckoning from yesterday to today, as number one.. Now if we can just get Santa to put on his glasses and checkout the GFS for X-MAS AM, we can forget about the above. 45* here at 6am, rain. 52* by 9am.!, rain. 53* by Noon.