CIK62

If only you could have heard JB rant for 15mins. in his Atmospheric Avenger video today, you would know he has been in too many Full Nelsons. Only part of it is acting. The presentation was as clear as a Day 16 Spaghetti Diagram. Besides, when scientists start sounding like lawyers trying to confuse a jury---we are all in trouble.

The last two days of December are averaging 46degs., or about 13degs. AN. Month to date is +0.4[38.2]. December should end near +1.2[38.7]. The first 6 days of January are averaging 42degs. The first halve of January looks like toast. Just 7/16 days with a low of 32 or less----just 2 of them below the average of 27and 13/16 with a high of at least 40. Second halve looks even worse, especially Week 3. Might as well keep in mind these numbers: JAN. NORMAL 32.6. RECORD is 43.2. Winning pace would be +10.7. A +5.8 would net us Top Ten status. 43* here at 6am, drizzle. 46* by Noon. 42* by 5pm.

First five days of January are still looking to average 43, or +10. This would mean the rest of the month already needs to be 50/28 or -1.8, in order to finish at Normal. We will probably go 17/18 days between BN days. 12/21---01/08. If the first week of January turns out to be as warm as predicted, yet the month ends like this: we are going to have a cold three weeks.

The last 3 days of December are averaging 45degs., or about 12degs. AN. Month to date is now +0.2[38.3]. At this train wreck pace, December should end near +1.4[38.9]. The first 5 days of January are already averaging 43degs. 44* here at 6am 48* by 9am. Back to 47* at Noon. (variable and going nowhere today.) All models have cold and some sort of snow event, but that is near Jan. 07. "Give me Snow or give me the Hottest January ever"

LaMarcus Thompson's "Switchback Railway" had better curves than this back in 1884. Even some of the web's worst X_Rated pages have better curves too.............eke!

The next 10 days, including today look +7, then we can get to a 6-day period of -3. SD says that in a recent conversation with Judah Cohen, they decided the culprit is the ionosphere when comes to the warmup. It is just a delay to the cold coming they felt.

The last 4 days of December are averaging 46.7degs , or about 12degs. AN. Month to date is -0.3[37.8]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. For those waiting for January, the first 4 days there are already averaging 44degs. All three major models are Snowless. Only a few sub-freezing days are showing up over the next 10-16 days. Cold air puts in two cameos 12/31-01/01 and 01/06-09. It may change costumes, but be reading the same lines near mid-Jan. 46* here at 6am. 47* by 9am. 49* by Noon. 50* at 1pm. 52* at 2pm. 53* at 3pm (high)

The EURO WEEKLIES put winter on a train and then send it flying off the next trestle into a gorge. It divides the country into seemingly equal halves and you already know which halve we are going to be in. There are two short breaks, though the length of the second one at the end of the run, can not be known. These 'breaks' allow for a short normal period to exist. Snow totals look OK considering all the warmth. Meanwhile the experts have the Christmas vacation period to think up some excuses and keep their paying customers happy with new ideas on StratWarmings, QBO, MJO, ENSO,IOD, TeleCons., warm blobs, cold blobs, FBI, CIA, Military Intelligence-----(only kidding the last three) and processes yet to be discovered! Besides I read all this in the entrails of a donkey. <<<Got that from some Biblical movie line.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=roy+orbison+++its+over&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=roy+orbison+its+over&sc=8-20&sk=&cvid=9BBDB2B8169A41C0824BF533C113432E Interesting live version. I am willing to throw my original 45 out the window onto a snow pile, if we get one. Even AccuWeather says any cold will flee quickly. There appear to be two pulses, near NYD and the 6th., then the PV begins to contract from us and who knows when the next cameo appearance will be?

The last 5 days of December are averaging 47.5degs., or about 13.5degs. AN(a touch of or should I say a torch of Dec. '15). Month to date is -0.9[37.3]. December should end near +1.5[39.0]. 48* here at 6am. 50* by 9am. 53* by Noon. Stayed at 53*+ till after 5pm. 51* at 9pm. Before the putative change Jan. 06(which is certain to do the El Fado and become Jan. 16 while we wait---or prove not worth the wait) figure on +7 and no snow.

And for this we have to wait till Jan. 06. This probably resembles what we currently have as much as you resemble your brother or sister. The top analog shown of a Jan 21 2002 setup---would of course mean curtain time. That winter after 9/11 did not exist. Low for the season was 19*, if my memory is accurate.

CFSv2 is flipping to AN as Dec. ends:

The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.2[37.1]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. 41* here at 6am. 40* by 8am. 47* by Noon. All the models look like horror shows for their durations. Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones. Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor. The first 5-Day period with a BN average T is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north.

GFS now has only three 32*-Days out of the next 16 for us, and none this year. The Ensembles look good for three days Jan.05-8, thereafter all BN air has retreated. This did not impress the 12Z OP. If this Strat. Warming fails, it means six weeks of tough noogies.

The last 7 days of December are averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN. Month to date is -1.5[37.0]. December should end near +1.0[38.5]. 35* here at 6am. (fell steadily 1*/hr. since it was briefly 50* at 3pm yesterday) My prediction days ago that my location may miss 32* again for remainder of year looks good. 38* by 9am. 41* at 10am. 44* at 11am. 46* at Noon. 48* by 3pm. No really BN days till Jan. 05 when the GFS has a 13" Snowstorm to boot(you'll need yours). Then we go to the single digits with great snow cover to back us up. So it seems the first 10 days of January could have the following: a 50 degree day, a snowstorm and a single digit AM. Just dream of Jan. 05 when looking for your White Christmas this AM. lol Of course the NAEFS shows none of the above: Additionally the TeleConnections look pitiful on all the models/ensembles. Really, they look better now with our end of the year heatwave.

Beware of model output for the next two months because I think that we have entered that "Mondo Bizzarro" period where late in a computer run the full realm of winter weather around here might be shown. Like the previous GFS output having a day in the 50's, a single digit day, and possible big snows, crammed together. I got a kick out of that -28C 850mb on Jan 06, which if real, must be in the Top Ten such around here. Prior to the above mayhem, all three models seem to have a potential 60-degree day, before the year ends.

The last 8 days of December are averaging 44.5degs., or about 10degs. AN. Month to date is -1.8[36.9]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. 43* here at 6am. 44* by 9am. 47* by Noon. 50* by 3pm. 45* by 6pm. 42*by 9pm. 41* by 10pm. All models are zippo on any snow. The January 'cooldown' does not even look like a return to Normal right now. Big uncertainty starts Jan. 03, however.

Only reached 54* here. Seems everybody else was higher. Ensemble has it AN till the 30th on both the 850mb T's and 500mb. heights. Apparently the 850mb T's do not stray far from Normal after that date till end of run, Jan. 07----while the 500mb heights go slightly Negative to the 4th., then slightly AN. Meanwhile Christmas Day still looks like this: (works out to +1.5sd) around here. And at the putative transition point it looks like this:

The next 8 days are averaging 44.5degs., or 10degs. AN. The low T is beating the normal high T three times. Month to date is -2.5[36.3]. Should be about +0.9[38.4] by the 31st. 39* here at 6am. 47* by Noon. 51* by 2pm. None of the major models have any snow whatsoever now for at least 10 days.

Reached 48* by me shortly before 4pm. The above maps better be right or we have little to look forward to. GFSx is +12! for the next 7 days and will wreck the BN traveling moving monthly average we have now.

DON'T LET YOUR NAVIGATIONAL MAPS FOOL YOU AND YOUR COMPASS..............GPS apparently would not be affected. "Earth's magnetic north pole is heading for Russia and scientists are puzzled" (Source: CNN, 12/17/19) The north magnetic pole has been slowly moving across the Canadian Arctic toward Russia since 1831, but its swift pace toward Siberia in recent years at a rate of around 34 miles per year has forced scientists to update the World Magnetic Model -- used by civilian navigation systems, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and US and British militaries -- a year ahead of schedule. The World Magnetic Model 2020 forecasts that the pole will continue on its path to Russia, but now the speed is slowly decreasing to about 24.8 miles per year. Since its discovery in 1831, the pole has traveled 1,400 miles. The magnetic field reverses its polarity every several hundred thousand years, where the magnetic north pole resides at the geographic South Pole. The last reversal took place 770,000 years ago. In a new study, researchers discovered that the last field reversal took 22,000 years to complete -- much longer than anticipated or expected, the researchers said. Although some believe reversals could happen over the course of a human life, the findings don't support that theory. Earth's magnetic north pole is hurtling toward Russia Researchers were able to study the reversal by analyzing a global survey of ocean sediments, Antarctic ice cores and lava flows. The details within those samples revealed how Earth's magnetic field has weakened, shifted partially, stabilized and reversed over a million years. "Reversals are generated in the deepest parts of the Earth's interior, but the effects manifest themselves all the way through the Earth and especially at the Earth's surface and in the atmosphere," said Brad Singer, study author and University of Wisconsin-Madison geologist. "Unless you have a complete, accurate and high-resolution record of what a field reversal really is like at the surface of the Earth, it's difficult to even discuss what the mechanics of generating a reversal are." Our planet's magnetic field is created by an interaction between the liquid iron outer core spinning around the solid inner core. When a reversal happens, the normally strong magnetic field weakens. Rock formation acts as a way to track the changes in the magnetic field. Lava flows and sediments record the state of the magnetic field, marking when they were created. Geologists can use the samples like pieces of a puzzle, reconstructing the history of the magnetic field. The record goes back millions of years, but it's the most clear when looking at the last reversal. "Lava flows are ideal recorders of the magnetic field. They have a lot of iron-bearing minerals, and when they cool, they lock in the direction of the field," Singer said. "But it's a spotty record. No volcanoes are erupting continuously. So we're relying on careful field work to identify the right records." 'Ghost particle' found in Antarctica provides astronomy breakthrough Radioisotope dating of lava flows and continuous magnetic readings from the ocean floor and Antarctic ice cores helped recreate a picture of the last reversal for the researchers. Argon can be measured from the lava flows as the radioactive decay of potassium occurs in the rocks, while beryllium can be measured in the ice cores. A weakened magnetic field allows more cosmic radiation from space to strike our atmosphere, which creates more beryllium. The actual reversal took less than 4,000 years -- a drop in the bucket when compared to Earth's timeline so far. But leading up to that reversal were 18,000 years of instability, including two temporary and partial reversals. This is twice as long as expected. The magnetic field decreases in strength about 5% each century and signs of weakening in the field point to an upcoming reversal -- but it's hard to know when that reversal will happen. If a reversal happened during our lifetime, it could impact navigation, satellites and communications. However, the researchers believe that we would have generations to adapt for long periods of instability in the magnetic field. "I've been working on this problem for 25 years," Singer said. "And now we have a richer record and better-dated record of this last reversal than ever before." //end//

The next 8 days are averaging 44 degs, or about 9degs. AN. Month to date is -2.7[36.2]. Should be about +0.5[38.3] by the 30th. 40* by Noon. 44* by 2pm. 31* here at 6am. 33* by 9am, and I am afraid there is evidence that my location may not see freezing again this year. Little to choose from now for your Christmas Day high T gift: GFS 43, GEM/EURO 42. Still an ugly looking +160M or more on Christmas Day. Good for a +10, not just +3. I would say, w/o checking other factors. No freezing stuff of any grade seems even possible till the Jan. 03-06 period. The only snow is a Day-10 T on the EURO. Given what is already on the books, the remaining 10 days of the month need to be just +5.7 for December to break even. (21/31)(-2.7) + (10/31)X = 0. X = 5.7

The next 7 days could be near +10 and put us near +1 or more, as the month fumbles to its end.

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or about 7degs. AN. Month to date is -2.5[36.6]. Should be about +0.2[38.0] by the 29th. 27* here at 6am. 30* by 9am. 34* by Noon. 37* at 1pm. 39* by 3pm. 35* by 6pm. Christmas highs-'gift picks' are tightening: EURO 41, GFS 46, GEM 38 They agree on little happening till 12/29 --- 01/04 period.