CIK62

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital. GFSx for the next 6 days is +17 at 49degs. [Back to Nov. 12, in other words] Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15. I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm. Felt like it was a 'March style' 37 too, while strolling around. Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that. Getting squished. Y or N? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Use the link. Something missing on the government website.

The next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or about 13degs. AN. Month to date is +7.4[40.4]. Should be near +10.2[42.7] by the 17th. 24* here at 6am. 29* by Noon. 34* already by 2pm. All models go colder near the 18th. But we could have 5 or 6 50-Degree Days before any help arrives. The GFS has some snow near the 19th and 22nd. The cold never really takes over on the GFS, and has retreated by the end of the run. The only purpose of the cold air seems to be to stop an all time warm January from occuring.

Strike Up the Band! I just reached 32* (8:30pm)for the first time since Dec. 22. Tomorrow will be the first BN Day for all since calendar winter started. We could have to wait now at least 8 more days for a repeat, I suppose. December 2015 had no BN days at all---Jan.04 was the next BN day back then.

A very stubborn SE Ridge continues to live: Hope you are enjoying the secular changes taking place. Tomorrow still looks as cold/colder than anything coming up in the next 15 days: What are we waiting for exactly? The GFS and EURO both have halve of their next 16 or 10 days in the 50's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 10egs. AN. Month to date is +8.2[41.2]. Should be about +9.1[42.1] by the 16th. 33* here at 6am. 40* by Noon. 42* by 3pm(high) Down quickly to 37* shortly after 3:45pm. Nothing happening till the 17th. on any model. Tomorrow should be the first BN day of the winter. GFS is -2 for the period of the 17th-23rd, but still no real snow event due to continued lack of phasing with polar jet. The only warm day is when it could snow.

Still looking like a sick puppy: As for snow. I never try to predict how much snow we are NOT going to get! But the GFS Cobb Method is 0" and the NAM Cobb is 1.3". Now do you feel any better? The next accidental cold shot is near the 17th. it seems.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 11degs. AN. Month to date is +8.3[41.3]. Should be about +9.9[42.3] by the 15th. 39* here at 6am. 45* by Noon. EURO/GFS are a Trace of Snow, CMC is Zippo. Most importantly, GFS is all BN T's starting near the 17th. But we need a total snow cover for 10's of thousand of square miles around us to do that -17 for a 30-Day Period.

Seems my phone has a different account/profile as indicated above. At any rate courtesy of WxBell:

AccuWeather just changed their January forecast made only on New Years Day, from +1 to a +6 for NYC. This will only happen they say with a favorable outcome of the MJO and a favorable SWEvent. JB still trying to get out of a Full Nelson Hold that has cut off the circulation to his brain.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 7degs. AN. The next 16 days are a +3 or +4 on the GFS. Current cold still looks better than what is coming, even two weeks out: All models have a bit of Snow during next few days. Positively scary. lol 33* here with snow on cartops. 38* by 11am. T going up furiously 43* by Noon. 44* at 1pm.

Is this the SE Ridge finally starting to cry: HELP ME MOMMY---I AM BEING CRUSHED---I CAN'T BREATHE! At least Jan. 2002 is knocked out of !st Place (sorry just kidding) in the analogs, but still holds three slots in the TT. Taken collectively, the TC''s all gang up to keep us warm and maybe the EPO staunches some of the heat-letting during the next 15 days. The PNA never recovers on the EURO Weeklies, at any rate, so ridging in the NW never sets up for long.

The next 8 days are averaging 38.5degs., or about 5.5degs. AN. EURO is 5.5" on the 8th., then gleefully sends the T into the 60's for 5 straight days!^^^^^ CMC is 2" and the GFS is a Trace-but has 4" on the 16th. More lousy verification scores incoming. ^^^^^ averages 61 or +(24)(5)=120/31 or about +4 added to monthly average all on its own. Overall it is +16 for a 5-day period, adding +2.5 to a monthly tally which is otherwise normal, but we may be more than +6 w/o this eruption. At any rate what we do know is that since the average daily T went AN 2-weeks ago, we have averaged +9.3! 39* here at 6am, windy. 38* at 7am. 41* during early PM.

NURSE: No change in the patient's condition since last week DOCTOR! DOCTOR: This patient is Dead! Report to my office at once Nurse!!!!!!!!!!!! So the patient was not dead after all? Just a drug induced coma!?

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or 8 degs. AN.[used 43/56 for today]. At this rate the last 20 days of January will need to be -4.5 to get us back to Normal. Some 60's are more likely than seeing any snow for the next 15 days. CFS shows no Snow on the ground here till Jan. 25. The CFS is a Notorious Malcreant that loves to show a White Christmas but never says which year it is referring to. 49* at 6am. 48*(all night) Back to 48* and 1/4mi. Fog by 7am. 50* since Noon *(2pm now)-same Fog. Down to 44* by 10pm.

Eke! The nothing cold of Jan 7,8,9 looks better than the drop at the end of run:

Based on traveling 30-Day Periods, the EURO Weeklies are near Normal for us Jan. 15---Feb. 14. The Control is never Normal for its duration of 46 days, based on those 30 day chunks. The S.E. never gets near Normal. I think a spot like Tampa, is coming up on two full years w/o a BN month.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 10degs. AN. 46* here at 6am. 45* at 6:30am. 44* at 8am. 47* by Noon. 48* for most of the afternoon/evening. Models are loaded with 50-Degree Days. A trace of snow would be an accident---an atmospheric miscue. Meanwhile the P.V. sits like an uninvolved witness to a robbery or a road accident. The only good thing---it is on our side of the N.P. When SW resumes and loosens up the P.V., we will save two weeks waiting time before the benefits are felt here.

The GEFS and GEPS look like multiple alarm fires till the last week of the month. Yet most of the discussion is over snow. Show me two or three consecutive days with sub-freezing High T's, and some snow might occur on day three or four. The next 7 days is still averaging 41degs., even with some colder days, but still continuously AN. Last below normal day was Dec. 21. We are going for 17/18 AN in a row. Winter record is probably Dec 2015 and the start of Jan. 2016 at 34 straight AN days. NO CHANGE IN THE PATIENT'S CONDITION DOCTOR: Jan. 2002 still a Top Ten Analogue, on three different dates: Accidental cold is all we are going to get. Expecting a system to generate its own cold air by expansion and evaporation is not a good bet. Try Jan. 08. The paper the January 2020 calendar is printed on should be tossed with last year.s calendar.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 8 degs. AN. 33* here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 43* by Noon. 48* by 3pm. EURO is 5" on the 5th., CMC is a T, and the GFS has no snow at anytime, with 850mb T's >0 for all its precipitation chances except the 8th.

From as recently as December 25: Meteorologist Brad Pugh predicts that in the next three months, there is a 40-50% chance that temperatures across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be lower than average. “It is important to remember that we do expect variable temperature patterns during this three month time period with episodic cold events during the winter season,” said Pugh. Pugh adds there's a 40-50% chance that the precipitation will be more than normal in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next 3 months.

The first 8 days of January are averaging 42degs. , or about 9degs. AN. 38* here at at 6am/7am. 37* at 7:30am. ***** Polar Bears getting ready to enter the water here. Crowd seems much smaller than other not so nice NYDs in the last 20 years. It is cloudy, breezy here, at 39*-12:45pm. Back in the early 2000's, i stripped down to my bathing and got just my feet wet, but it was 61* . They needed two bays to accommodate the huge crowd, both in/out of the water. My balldrop T was 42*, compared to last year's 49.5*(with a low sea fog setup). Yes, all the models have some snow-----but each on a different day! Get the scorecard ready. EURO is 3" on the 5th/6th; GEM 3" on the 8th.; the GFS waits till the 16th(you fill in an amount). Let's throw a party and let these gents get to know each other a little better.

December finished at +0.8[38.3] with 10 straight AN days, with an +8.3 average anomaly.

Still looks the same here. Just one day further on and lost. Jan. 2002 has a Top Ten analogue during three different weeks. There was no winter that year as I think the low for the season was 19*.

The last day of December is averaging 42degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +0.6[38.2_]. December should end at +0.8[38.3]. The first week of January is averaging 42degs., or about 9degs. AN. With this start, remainder of January will have to be about -3 to finish near Normal. GFS/GEM have a T of Snow near the 7th. GFS goes on to have days in the 60's.[1932 records in jeopardy?----a ridiculous +35 near the 13th] Both models have just a Trace of a Brain between them. HAPPY 2020 TO ALL for now. 38* here at 6am. 42* by 11am. Peaked at 46* at 4pm. LAST CALL FOR ALCOHOL on the month of J A N U A R Y :

How can the EURO be indicating snow when its average cut for the next 10 days is 36/50 or a record 10 or 11 degrees AN. 43 degrees is the mean for late Nov. Look let's keep this simple. The typical northeast snowstorm does not bring the cold air with it. It is already here with a CAD setup to keep it here. Therefore, I like to look for a period with high temperatures below 32 for two or three days. Since precipitation tends to occur every third to fourth day, and the BL and Skin T are surely cold enough to support snow with the previous conditions mentioned----this should give us at least some white stuff. Better than waiting for a Blizzard of 1888 setup to take the T from 53 to 06. Besides every upcoming precipitation event and the current one, have 850mb T's >0C, so what kind of frozen precipitation could we get anyway.