CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 35.6degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +8.2[.40.7]. Should be +6.7[39.1] by the 28th. This +3 it maintains for the remainder of the month, so January ends at +6.1[38.5]. First 4 days of February are +9. All models have no more than a Trace near the 26th. CMC looks like its the coldest for next 10 days. NB: The 06Z GFS looks like its older brother run of exactly four days ago, which was 24" of wet snow here. Start of Feb. looks better too at +7.5 for the first 5 days. PAGE1REPLATE: Unfortunately SD just called an end to the winter within 3 weeks. He must have gotten this from Judah Cohen with whom he consulted with 10 days ago. JC stated an inexplicable heating of the ionosphere had destroyed the strat. warming. I noted this then, but saw no follow up here from the members. 21* here at 6am. 27* by Noon. 30* by 2pm. 32* by 3:30pm.

Tomorrow AM still seems to be the coldest we will see for two weeks: GFS still has the first 4 days now of February averaging near a +10. Maybe this is better than yesterday, but 1953 analog still up there. Besides, the automated weekend system shows it will dry along EC at this same time. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

The next 8 days are averaging 35.4degs , or 3degs. AN Month to date is +8.5[41.0]. Should be about +7.0[39.3] by the 27th. 37* here at 6am. 42* already by 9am. 43* at 10am. 42* by Noon. GFS is +4 and zippo Snow for remainder of month. First 3 days of Feb. are +13. Ends Jan. near +6.8[39.1]. GEM is coldest and has 7" of Snow near 26th. EURO should stay at home for duration. Winter to date is now +3.6, 49 days..

Another pukey winter month analog crawls out from under the snow less sod of Central Park. Now it is 1953, a season that had just 5.5" of snow after Dec. 31. The GFS is now +10 for the first 3 days of February. btw: Any one know what the Highest Low T for January is? Maybe 19 in 2002? We may not beat 20. In addition, the run that had 24" of wet snow on Jan. 25,26 here was less than three days ago>>>>>06Z, Jan. 16 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

The next 8 days are averaging 34.5degs., or 2.5 degs. AN. Month to date is +9.2[41.7]. Should be about +7.1[39.4] by the 26th.(good for 9th. Place) 23* here at 6am. 27* already by 9am. 30* by Noon. Back to 26* with Snow/Evap. Cooling at 1pm. Snow took a long break, reached 32* at 5:30pm, started again an hour ago or so. 33* at 6pm and no snow. 35* at 6:30pm. 37* at 8:00pm. All models are about 3"---4" for today. Starts 1pm with Snow until 6pm, then some Rain till 8pm. After that: 'a long WAKE for winter's early demise'?

The GFS has the last 14 days of January averaging 36.5 or +4.5. Using a -6 for today and +10.1 for the first 16 days, we are probably going to finish near 39.4 for the month. Just 6 runs ago the GFS had 20.1 for the same overlapping period. This run kicks off February 01---02 at a +12 pace. Accuweather which raised its January forecast just after the month started from +1 to +6, has just raised its February outlook to -1, from (sorry---do not know what it was before). More importantly, they feel they did not raise it enough as they wait on PV evolution. A trough made up of AN heights: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

The next 8 days are averaging 31.5degs., or about 0.5deg. BN. Month to date is +10.1[42.6]. Should be about +6.5[38.9] by the 25th. 25* here at 6am. 23* at 7am. 22* at 8am. 23* at 9am. 26* by Noon. 27* at 1pm. 29* at 3pm. 28* by 6pm. All models are 2"-3" on Saturday. Enjoy. Rest of January is zippo and T is about 34degs., or 2degs. AN. That is about 14 degs. higher than predicted yesterday. Expect more talk on how great February will be. Expect some locale in the general area to have another +40 degree day between 1/25---02/02. Model looks sunburned.

You can WYA with the rest of this month. The 06Z GFS this morning averaged 20.1* for the rest of January, and the 18Z GFS averages 28.9*. This is what a CAD program spits out when the physics package is turned off-------a cartoon for kiddies. Snow totals went from 24" to just 1" more this month. With the Jan. 31 threat you can take the aforementioned WYA and wipe your nose with it. Official forecast is AN for remainder of month. 'SE Trough' still getting crushed. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

I am getting a snow tornado here, but my T is still 43* at 2:38pm. Lasted 90 secs., T is now 39* at 2:50pm. T went back up quickly to 42* and took until 6:30pm to get back to 39*

The next 8 days are averaging 29.5degs., or about 2.5degs. BN. Month to date is +10.2[42.7]. Should be about +6.1[38.1] by the 24th. Just a T to 2" of Snow for Saturday does it. 47* here at 6am. 46* at 7am. 48* at 8am. 50* and windy, drizzle at 9am. 48* windy, at Noon. 45* windy, by 2pm. 06Z GFS IS SUPER COLD!!!!! It wants to try to equal feat of Jan. 19-Feb. 05 1961, with NO 32 HIGHS starting Jan 20. Leaving out today and Feb. 01, it averages 20.1 for 15 days! A Reverse Full Nelson for sure.

The official 8-14 day outlook is already AN as of today. AN heights invading Canada and 'crushing' the SE Trough. Cafe Wha? LOL. The best analog now is Jan. 1995, which saw no action till Feb. 04. I reached 54* today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

2019 Second hottest year ever on a WorldWide basis : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-15/second-hottest-year-on-record-capped-warmest-ever-decade

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +10.0[42.5]. Should be +6.4[38.6] by the 23rd. OK, using the next 17 day average temperature (28.6 or -3.5) as predicted by the GFS, January will end near +2.7. 44* here at 6am. 46* by 9am. 49* by Noon. 52* by2pm. 54* at 4pm. Do not expect more than 2" Sat., or even beyond. Models are back to the 50's by the 25th. or so. A great decade---but not now please. Which meteorologist will be the first to pull plug on this winter and admit there is no money for their proposed weather. They should debate on national TV.

The next 8 days are averaging 34degs. , or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +9.9[42.5]. Should be +6.9[39.3] by the 22nd. Using the -4 average anomaly as currently indicated for the next 17 days, we will be near +2 by the 31st. 44* here at 6am. 43* at 7am. 46* by 10am. 48* by Noon. Our three main models all have about 2" of Snow near the 18th/19th. and little else, and we have a long boring wait for winter's end. Not cutting it at all.

I believe the Canadian GEM just became the first model this season to show the mandatory sub-zero fantasy (equivalent to those HECS that never happen). This for Thurs. 1/23 at -1.

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +10.0[42.6]. Should be +8.0[40.4] by the 21st. 41* here at 6am. 45* by 10am. 50* by 1pm. 48* at 2pm. 48* still at 3pm. For the 18th., the putative snow amounts are: GFS 6", EURO 5", CMC 3". GFS is back AN 1/24---1/28 at a measly +1. Was showing way BN a day ago. What happened? Here our only significant precipitation event (18th) coincides with a rise in the T and THK. I note that a few posts beyond, someone is already singing the praises of Feb. Despite this, from the 06Z GFS we get that the period 17th---29th will average 23degs., or 9degs. BN! If you believe this run, the MTD will be just +1.8 by the 30th. This better show up in subsequent charts like the one here.

The THK still rising each time precipitation threatens. No CAD, 50/50 Low, or -NAO? Does not suggest an Arctic onslaught in the T department either. The Fat Lady just wetting her throat ATT, but the hounds are already starting to try to sniff out their own tails---if not yet chasing them outright. HARK!!! the HORNS are ushering in February already.

The next 8 days are still averaging 42degs., or 10degs. AN. (used 68/42 for today) Month to date is +8.7[41.5]. Should be +9.2[42.0] by the 20th. 62* here at 6am. 63* by 9am. 64* by 11am. 65* at Noon. 66* at 1pm. This was the peak, lasted to 3pm. 61* at 5pm. 56* by 8pm. All models have a little snow on the 18th.----'SnOw What' CMC probably coldest for next 10 days. EURO loaded with 50's.(+7 for next 10 days) GFS: who cares.(it is -2 on the next 17 days giving the month a +2.2 by the 29th.) The first 21 days of the calendar winter have averaged +8.7, with just one BN day. Who predicted that would be the case. Not I. At any rate here is the next 16 days, averaged out. Worth the wait? Who knows.

Strong sea breeze forced an early High for the day of 63* for me at 11:15am. Spent the PM between 53-55. NB: The GEM has a foot of snow here in exactly one week, with the potential for 35", since the available LE is 3.5" With all sorts of crazy SD's floating around for various atmospheric parameters---this could just be another one the GEM has sniffed out before the other models. Or maybe it is just snorting things out. Try that w/o the letter 'n' LOL!

The SE Ridge is dislodged it seems, way to the northeast. Nice look. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 12degs. AN. Month to date is +6.8[39.6]. Should be near +9.1[41.6] by the 19th. Maybe we will be near +4 or less by the 28th., using a conservative cold-down starting the 17th. 55* here at 6am. 56* at 6:30am. 59* at 8:00am. T roll back here to 57* by 9am. 61* by 11am with a strong sea breeze, shall I say it?---saving me from the heat! Lol. 62* already at 11:15am. 63* at 11:20am. Crash to 58* at Noon. More crash to 53* at 12:30pm 54*-57* from 2pm-3pm. Places nearby look to be +45!!! for at least a few hours tonight and AM Sun. Laugh now and die in July with this anomaly.

GFS is now averaging 25degs., or 7degs. BN for the period (17th---26th, with 5" of snow). Still it is having phasing problems, as precipitation events are accompanied by a rise in the T. Maybe it will not matter at mid-winter. At any rate the MTD would then be +2.2 by the 27th. This is because today and the next 6 warm days are exactly erased by the above -7 for 10 days. A chameleon month in the making?

Taken literally, this is 10" of Snow and then the single digit regime. If not already an exaggeration, then I bet it starts showing the mandatory sub-zero T's it does every mid winter period with a realization rate of less than 10%. That is, just two sub-zero realities here in the last 26 years. I like that snow on the ground already setup for a lower boundary layer T, than otherwise would theoretically be possible. Long Live the GFS! 192-384 hour forecasts (1.0 degree resolution): FCST Hour Valid Time Max Temp °F Min Temp °F Td °F 10m Wind mph 925mb Wind mph 850mb Wind mph Total Precip(") Conv. Precip(") 500-1000 THKNS 500mb Height 500mb Temp °C 850mb Temp °C 925mb Temp °C MSLP mb Total Cloud Cover 850mb Td(°C) 192 Sat 01/18 06Z 26 ° 24 ° 13 ° NW 7 NNW 16 NW 25 0.00 0.00 535 557 -19 ° -5 ° -9 ° 1029 72 % -21 ° 204 Sat 01/18 18Z 28 ° 25 ° 19 ° SSE 2 SSW 9 WSW 36 0.03 0.00 538 558 -15 ° -8 ° -10 ° 1024 100 % -22 ° 216 Sun 01/19 06Z 29 ° 27 ° 23 ° ENE 9 SE 22 SSW 27 0.19 0.00 544 556 -16 ° 0 ° -1 ° 1015 100 % -5 ° 228 Sun 01/19 18Z 39 ° 35 ° 33 ° WNW 4 W 31 W 43 0.15 0.00 547 548 -18 ° 2 ° 4 ° 1000 100 % 0 ° 240 Mon 01/20 06Z 24 ° 16 ° 11 ° NW 16 NW 38 NW 40 0.00 0.00 523 533 -26 ° -10 ° -16 ° 1012 19 % -12 ° 252 Mon 01/20 18Z 17 ° 12 ° 14 ° NW 16 NW 36 NW 45 0.00 0.00 510 528 -35 ° -15 ° -16 ° 1022 1 % -16 ° 264 Tue 01/21 06Z 14 ° 11 ° 9 ° NW 11 NNW 29 NW 25 0.00 0.00 513 538 -30 ° -14 ° -15 ° 1032 0 % -15 ° 276 Tue 01/21 18Z 21 ° 11 ° 19 ° SSW 2 SSW 7 WSW 13 0.00 0.00 519 545 -29 ° -12 ° -13 ° 1033 51 % -12 ° 288 Wed 01/22 06Z 28 ° 23 ° 27 ° ESE 4 SSE 27 SSW 31 0.02 0.00 524 543 -28 ° -9 ° -7 ° 1025 100 % -10 ° 300 Wed 01/22 18Z 34 ° 29 ° 28 ° WNW 4 W 20 WSW 27 0.62 0.00 534 539 -24 ° -5 ° -2 ° 1006 100 % -6 ° 312 Thu 01/23 06Z 28 ° 13 ° 10 ° W 9 WNW 38 W 25 0.00 0.00 515 520 -26 ° -15 ° -14 ° 1007 97 % -16 ° 324 Thu 01/23 18Z 17 ° 8 ° 10 ° WNW 16 WNW 31 WNW 38 0.00 0.00 502 511 -38 ° -21 ° -15 ° 1011 44 % -22 ° 336 Fri 01/24 06Z 13 ° 10 ° 3 ° SW 11 WSW 38 W 38 0.00 0.00 512 524 -31 ° -13 ° -16 ° 1014 40 % -13 ° 348 Fri 01/24 18Z 17 ° 9 ° 13 ° W 11 W 27 WNW 31 0.00 0.00 516 529 -28 ° -15 ° -15 ° 1017 36 % -15 ° 360 Sat 01/25 06Z 13 ° 11 ° 9 ° W 7 WNW 27 W 25 0.00 0.00 518 534 -27 ° -14 ° -11 ° 1021 9 % -16 ° 372 Sat 01/25 18Z 23 ° 7 ° 20 ° WNW 7 WNW 18 WNW 27 0.00 0.00 517 536 -28 ° -15 ° -13 ° 1025 3 % -15 ° 384 Sun 01/26 06Z 13 ° 8 ° 4 ° NW 2 WNW 11 W 20 0.00 0.00 520 543 -29 ° -13 ° -12 ° 1031 0 % -14 ° Max Temp Min Temp 850 Temp Max 850 Temp Min 500 Height Max 500 Height Min Thickness Max Thickness Min 39 °F 7 °F 2 °C -21 °C 558 511 547 502 Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 1.01 " and Convective: 0 " 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 1.75 " and Convective: 0.03 " Enter an ICAO to extract 16 GFS data: Before using information obtained from this server special attention should be given to the date & time of the data and products being displayed. MeteoStar Disclaimer YOUR ACCESS TO THE WEBSITE, (which includes all web-pages that are linked to this page, data displayed on such web-pages from whatever source, and links contained on these web-pages) IS PURSUANT TO LIMITED PERMISSION FROM METEOSTAR. Such limited permission does not include the permission to utilize any aspect of this website for purposes that could cause damage to person or property. The user assumes the entire risk related to use of website - especially the weather data accessed by the user. MeteoStar is providing such data "as is," and MeteoStar disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will MeteoStar be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Users who wish to obtain broader permission may be able to do so - but only by contacting MeteoStar and entering into an appropriate, written agreement for such permission. Please send comments to support at MeteoStar

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or 15degs. AN. Month to date is +6.2[39.1]. Should be about +10.3[42.8] by the 18th. 37* here at 6am. 55^ by 4pm. EURO is slower with the BN air, no 'BN Days' or Snow for at least 10 days. CMC goes BN late 10-Day and snow is possible. GFS goes BN with the 17th and has snow on the 19th and 22nd. It is -6 for the 9 days (17th---25th). This would make the MTD +4.3 by the 26th. We will see.

Are we really gonna trust any of these outputs? There is a glaring 50 degree difference for Florida between the GFS/GEFS around the 24th. GFS even has snow in Florida that day and almost nowhere else in the 48. Personally I want the cold and snow. However, I may start rooting for a record warm January instead, if we start a 'dog trying to catch his own tail scenario' Let January be Number One, it deserves it. Then clear the slate and start off February with another all time record of -16 on the first and a 40" snowstorm that is still on the ground April 01 because it is being protected by the additional 40" that falls during the following 60 days. lol. SO LET IT BE WRITTEN SO LET IT BE DONE