CIK62

COUNTING YOUR INCHES BEFORE THEY HATCH..................Mother Nature will get you for that! I think these snow possibilities are for NowCasting, when it comes to the City, especially for me. Maybe if timing is at night. The BN air never takes over in the northeast Quick melting seems likely too. Remember in the song Cherry Hill Park: IN THE DAYTIME MARY HILL WAS A TEASER, BUT COME THE NIGHT SHE WAS SUCH A PLEASER. While we may get 3" LEQ, only 0.5" is actually being shown as coming when the 850mb T's are < 0C.

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 11degs.AN. 42* here at 6am. 44* by Noon. The first 17 days of February(06Z,GFS) are averaging 41degs., or 7degs. AN with No Snow. Always cold at tail end which now has slipped forward a few days already as I follow this debacle. Anyone know how Moscow ended up for January? December was +14, apparently and January seemed even warmer 10 days ago. Looks like they have about 1 BN day themselves over the next 15 (Feb. 7,8).

First 16 days of February still averaging(18Z, GFS) a wild oats 46degs., or a solid 12degs. AN. Guess What! No Snow to boot. Even a Normal second half of the month would probably still leave us in the Top Ten. JANUARY 2020 R.I.P. SOON TO SHARE GRAVE WITH YOUNGER SISTER, FEBBIE. FOUGHT BRAVELY AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING, A RECALCITRANT POLAR VORTEX WRONG WAY MJO, ENSO MIX-UPS, -PNA, +AO,+NAO.+WPO,/EPO AND A DUMB MET.

The first week of February is averaging 45degs., or 12degs. AN. The first 16 days of February are averaging 39degs., or 5/6degs. AN. The 'cold/snow' that always shows up at the tail end of each run, never gets any closer. AccuWeather getting ready to raise projected T by several degrees for the month, as they did successfully for January. Meanwhile, JB remains in a self imposed Full Nelson hold.

Last day of January is averaging 40degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +6.7[39.2] and should end there. R.I.P. 39* here at 6am. 42* by 9am. 45* by Noon. 46* by 1pm.

Winter to Date From Dec. 01 +3.8 From Dec. 22 +7.3 Record for Dec. 01(full winter) is +6.4[41.5] compliments of 2001-02. We are Top Ten material, since 10th. Place is a mere +3.0. FLASH: The 12Z GFS has 8 '50-Degree Days' coming up. Darned if it doesn't reach 60. Going to bust out and head for an All Time warm February. First 15 days of February are now averaging 42degs., or 8/9degs. AN and w/o snow. Warmest February ever was just two years ago at 42.0 and +6.7.

The last 2 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +7.0[39.4]. January should end at +6.8[39.2]. The first 15 days of February are averaging {06Z, GFS) 37degs., or about 4degs. AN. There are about 5 or 6 '50-Degree Days' possible before any turn to 'cold'. The run does include the mandatory snow----this time about 11" between the 11th---14th period. The first 50 days of calendar winter will have been wasted by that time. EURO is a horror, and the CMC has an 1" of snow this weekend before torching. Will it be 5 50-Degree Days or 5"+ of Snow during the next 15 days? (start throwing the darts) 28* here at 6am. 27* at 7am. 35* by 11am. 37* by 1pm. 40* by 2:30pm. Winter to Date From Dec. 01 +3.8 From Dec. 22 +7.3 Record for Dec. 01(full winter) is +6.4[41.5] compliments of 2001-02. We are Top Ten material, since 10th. Place is a mere +3.0. FLASH: The 12Z GFS has 8 '50-Degree Days' coming up. Darned if it doesn't reach 60. Going to bust out and head for an All Time warm February. First 15 days of February are now averaging 42degs., or 9degs. AN and w/o snow.

Well our turn to colder weather now features 5 50-Degree Days and No Snow for the first two weeks of February(12Z, GFS). Average T is 39degs. for the period, or 6degs. AN. I told you that we should be guessing the number of 50-Degree Days, not the number of inches of snow that will not be accumulating. The MJO sucks, TC's suck and the atmosphere does not know whether it wants to react to a weak El Nino or react to a non-existent La Nina. Any storm will be by accident and not predictable on a coherent basis, well in advance. The PV will rotate away after this period and we will have our old friend the SE Ridge back in town to entertain us. Give me back January already---the SE Ridge does not look so good with a long grey beard.

The last 3 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +7.2[39.6]. January should end at +6.8[39.2]. The first 13 days of February are averaging(0Z, GFS)36degs., or 3degs. AN. 2" of Snow this weekend. EURO is just ugly and the CMC has snow where the GFS has T in the 50's. The (06Z GFS) is averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN with no snow until the 12th. 34* here at 6am. 33* by 8am. 40* by 2pm. 42* was high at 4pm.

If you wanna raise your weather prediction verification scores, start predicting how many 50-Degree Days we might have in the next 15, instead of how many inches of snow are not going to accumulate. The PV rearrangement is going to give us dirty cold air that mixes with Pacific air, or never reaches past the EC and out into the Atlantic. Our cold source region is HB. The latest GFS does not even have a BN day it seems. I bet that if matters are not cleared up by the weekend (for what remains of the winter), major EC meteorologists will hold a 'secret' intranet conference or something and just call off the rest of winter. That would allow them to share the blame, however it goes. No more speaking with forked tongue.

The last 4 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3 degs. AN. Month to date is +7.2[39.5]. January should end near +6.5[38.9]. The first 12 days of Feb. are averaging (0Z, GFS)34degs., or about 1deg. AN. 6" of Snow near the 2nd., and 2" near the 10th. The other two models are snowless the next 10 days. FLASH: The unreliable 06Z GFS has an average T of 32degs., or 1deg. BN for the first 13 days of February and turns all liquid into Snow, for a total of 22". DOUBLE FLASH: Cancel the previous Flash. 12Z GFS Average T is back up to 40degs., or 7degs. AN for the first 13 days of Feb. and Snow less. The models should take the Fifth Amendment and disappear into the Government's Model Protection Program before the Meteorological Society puts a HIT out on them!!!!!! For completeness I present the 18Z GFS: Average T is 37degs. for the first 13 days of Feb., with some snow at the end of the period---that means UCWYAWI. 38* here at 6am. 43* by 1pm. 40* by 8pm.

The last 5 days of January are averaging 37degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +7.1[39.5]. January should end at +6.6[39.0]. The first 11 days of February are averaging (0Z, GFS) 40degs, or 7degs. AN. Snow near the 3rd. and 8th.(throw your dart). Where is the improvement that was forecast? Now the first 12 days on the next GFS run is averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN, but all the snow is largely gone. And finally today's 12Z GFS is down to 34degs for this period., or 1deg. AN----but with No Snow (indeed No Precipitation at all), through the 12th. 38* here at 5am. 38* at 6am. 39* by 9pm. 43* by 2pm. 45* by 4pm.

The last 5 days of January are averaging 38.5degs.,or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +7.1[39.4]. January should end at +6.9[39.3]........8th Place. The first 10 days of February are averaging 33.5, [0Z, GFS] or just about Normal. All three main models have sacrificed all of their snow for really ordinary cold so far. 39* here at 6am. 40* by 9am.

The first 10 days of February are already back up, to 38.5 or +5.5, this time. It has 3 50-Degree Days, including when we were expecting colder T's----2/9-10. Can't we all just be friends and call this waiting game off? >>>>>>>Member Question to Allsnow: Did you post the 50mb Height Anomaly by accident, really meaning the 500mb. Anomaly? If 50mb heights are BN, isn't the air at 2M going to be AN? Second post down.

If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random. AN and BN days should average out, right? This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period. This streak could have begun on any one of those days. And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings) could have experienced this event. I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or 100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random. There must be more reasons to reduce this. Any thoughts?

The last 7 days of January are averaging 40degs., or 7.5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.8[39.2]. January should end at +6.9[39.3], or 8th. Place. Indeed, as speculated, the EURO 18" has melted away in one run. The first 10 days of Feb. are averaging 35degs., or +2. Nothing should happen till the 8th., snowwise. Winter to date is: From Dec. 01 +3.4 and From Dec. 22 +7.3. 43* here at 6am. 42* at 7am. 43*, breezy, drizzle at 8am. 44*, rain at 9am. 49* by 3pm, rain,windy. 51* with breaks in clouds at 3:30pm.

Last word for the night. The EURO is 18" for Feb. 02. When I wake up tomorrow.................Where Is It? "Oh Eban!, Is It Really Me"?......... or just these idiot computer models.

READY SET GO Put on your swimsuits or man the snow shovels? JB is stressing the fact that the EURO Weeklies have 40" of Snow for us over the next 46 days, but the OP has none for the first 10 days of this period. This would then be an inch per day affair. Anyone remember what the weeklies were for the last 46 days to date? Currently we have 4.8", say half of the normal.

The remainder of January is averaging 41degs., or 9degs AN. Month to date is +6.6[39.0]. January should end near +7.2[39.6], or tied for 8th Place. It deserves it----don't you think!? The first 8 days of Feb. are averaging 39 or about +6. (0Z, GFS) 41* here at 6am. 40* at 6:30am. 45* by 9am. Made 50* here by 11:15am. 51* finally by 2:15pm. 53* at 3pm. GFS is snowless till Feb.08, CMC is coldest but with no snow for the next 10 days and the EURO is a Trace near Feb.02.

Next 8 days are averaging 40.5degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +6.5[38.9]. Should be about +6.9[39.3] by the 31st. The first week of February looks much colder now at just +2.0[35.0]---but the price of that is that the GFS*** has no Snow for its entire duration. EURO likes the end of the month/Feb 01 with 4", CMC is a Trace. ***Latest run, 12Z, back to +7.0[40.0]. 33* at 6am. 36* by 9am. 41* by Noon. 46* by 3pm.

In the Good News/Bad News category, today's Lovin' Spoonful is an analog from 01/30/2006. If you like T's in the 40's, 50's, 60's then a 26.9" snow storm, then the 50's and 60's again----and all in a rapid succession, you are on: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Next 8 days are averging 39degs., or about 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.9[39.3]. Should be about +6.8[39.2] by the 30th. My Kudos to AccuWeather for changing their January Outlook early in the month from +1 to +6. No snow anywhere w/o any 32 degree days for the most part or the whole part. The first 6 days of February are averaging 41degs. or +8. Dog stops chasing its tail February 08? 28* here at 6am. 30* by 9am. 33* by Noon. 41* by 3pm 43* at 4pm. 39* at 6pm.

If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview. This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter. DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA with it. When you are done doing that, you can wipe your nose with it. You might want to reverse that. Another day older and deeper in do-doo. Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here. Bookend snowstorms, a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs. Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

The next 8 days are averaging 37.5degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +7.5[39.9]. Should be about +6.8[39.2] by the 29th. The first 5 days of February are +6. 22* here at 6am. 23* by 8am. 26* by 10am. 29* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. 33* at 2:30pm. 34* at 3pm. All models are snowless for their durations.

Once again we have a stellar analog leading the pack of '02/05/1961' which picks up right after that winter concluded so spectacularly. 16 straight High T's under 32, a -2 morning and an 18" Blizzard. Nothing happened after that day to take the bank. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif