CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN Month to date is +6.0[40.1]. Should be about +5.3[39.7] by the 25th. 41* here at 6am. 40* at 6:30am. 46* by Noon. 50* by 2pm. 52* by 4pm. The last 13 days of February are averaging (0Z,GFS) 40.2degs. February should end near +4.8[40.1] again, like yesterday, a tie for 5th Place. WINTER UPDATE: Starting Dec. 01> +4.1. Starting Dec. 22> +6.7.

JB now using analogs such as March 1960 and April 1982. I hope he notifies the Mexican government they are going to be buried in another El Chichon like volcanic eruption, considered largely responsible for the April 06 Blizzard that year. More fundamentally, he is trying to pit the coming -EPO against the unfavorable MJO phases, to see which is king.

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +6.3[40.3]. Should be about +5.1[39.5] by the 24th. The remainder of February is averaging (0Z,GFS) 39.9degs., so February may end near +4.8[40.1]---a tie for 5th. Place. The (06Z,GFS) is lower at 38.2degs. for the remainder of February---we end at 39.2. Whoopee. All 3 models are snow less. 32* here at 6am. 34* by 9am. 42* by 3pm. Shot up to 47* by about 4:30pm. 43* by 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +7.6[41.6]. Should be +4.8[39.2] by the 23rd. The last 15 days of February are averaging 36.5degs., or about Normal. 8" of Snow near the 27th. There was no snow on the three prior runs, however. February should end near +3.8[39.1]. 18* here at 6am. 19* at 7am. P is 1037.6mb. 21* at 8am. 24* by 10am. 26* by 1pm. 31* by 4pm.

Next 8 days are averaging 35.5degs., or about 1deg. AN. Month to date is +8.7[42.6]. Should be about +5.8[39.9] by the 22nd. All models are snow less. Remainder of February is averaging 37degs. so we should end near +4.2[39.5]. 37* here at 6am. 35* at 7am. 33* at 7:30am. 32* at 7:45am. 31* at 8am. 30* at 9am. Essentially 30* all the way to 31* by 3pm. 28* by 6pm. 26* at 7pm. 23* by 9pm. 21* by 11am.

JB's latest analog is to call up the ghost of the Blizzard of '88 for the 23rd., I guess. He earlier invoked the Blizzard of 1993. He used a score of storms and classic cold outbreaks throughout this winter, hoping to hit the jackpot with one of them. SD pointed out today that stratosphere was cooling and this doomed any Arctic air from ever reaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. The PV would just fade and meld with the rest of the atmosphere-----in other words it would enjoy the natural death it always suffers with the higher elevation of the sun. He called winter off weeks ago, but due to an active Sub-Tropical Jet, was holding open the possibility of an accidental storm. Till now, I suppose. Nothing showing here, just one more dip after Saturday:

The next 8 days are averaging 35.5degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +8.9[42.8]. Should be +5.3[39.9] by the 21st. All 3 main models are snow less for their duration. The 06Z,GFS is averaging 37.5 for the last 17 days of February, so we should end the month near 39.7 and in 8th. Place. The winter will probably have fewer than 25 BN Days to its name. February is a month on the move. 9 out of the 10 warmest Februaries are since 1990. My 1967 NYC Weather Almanac which presumably has the 30-Year Normal from 1931-60, shows that February has warmed a full 2 degrees since that period. February may have been our coldest month during the first 70 years of records, with a crossover with January taking place by 1940. 39* here at 6am. 41* at 7am. 42* by 10am. 43* by Noon. drizzle all AM. 44* by 4pm.

Next 8 days are averaging 37.5degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +9.1[42.9]. Should be about +6.6[40.6] by the 20th. The rest of February needs to be -5.6, just to end at Normal. All 3 main models are snow less for their duration. 06Z, GFS is averaging 38.5degs. for the next 17days. The 12Z, GFS is still snow less, but the average is down to 36.5 on the next 17 days. 40* here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 45* by Noon. 46* at 1pm. 42* by 6pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 38.5degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is +8.9[42.6]. Should be about +6.8[40.8] by the 19th. Amazingly, all 3 main models agree exactly on 11* for Sat. AM. The 0Z, GFS has 20" of Snow starting the 21st. Its average T>>> 21st.---26th is 27*! But did it do this with or w/o the lithium? Well the lithium bottle was empty........very next run averaging 39* and No Snow during same period. 47* here at 6am, Rain. 49* by 11am.

Only hope from the EURO Weeklies would be the days in and around Feb. 28---Mar. 08. Remember that even if we had Moscow's January here last month, we would have still have been AN last month. They apparently finished with a 33* Average, when about 15* is normal. Their December 2019 beat our December 2015-----they made it a +14, ours was +13.3.

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or 3.5degs. AN. 44* here at 6am, drizzle. Month to date is +8.7[42.4]. Should be about +5.5[40.3] by the 18th. The next 17 days are averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN.(0Z, GFS) with 3" of snow on 13th again. EURO is snowless. CMC is snowless. The 06Z, GFS is averaging 37degs., or 2degs. AN on the next 17days with 1" of snow---this time near the 21st.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 4.5degs. AN. 35* here at 6am. 34* at 6:30am. 39* by 10am. 42* by 11am, and already = to my High from yesterday. 46* by 1pm. The next 17 days are averaging 36degs., or just about Normal. (06Z, GFS). No snow till end of period. A major storm will not be predicted ahead of time and will be an accident. Maybe it snowed on 3 days this season but the models probably have identified about 30 different days for snow. The 12Z, GFS is up to an average 39degs. for the next 17 days, with no snow. Just 6 BN days in the last 48 days, just 1 in the last 17 days.

The next 8 days are averaging 38.5degs., or 4degs. AN. 31* here at 6am. 31* at 7am. 39* by Noon. 41* by 3pm. 42* at 4pm. 39* by 9pm. Already the rest of February needs to be -3.3 just to get to Normal. Looks like we will be +5.8 by the 25th. WINTER Update: Starting Dec. 01 +4.3. Starting Dec. 22 +7.4. The next 17 days are averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN.(06Z, GFS) 3" of Snow on the 13th. The EURO is in the 60's at this same time, but has snow on the 17th. Who/What is responsible for this continuous stream of hash and trash?

Next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or about 4.5degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging[06Z, GFS] 34.5degs., or near Normal---but it is Snowless. Already the remainder of February must be -2.7 to end near Normal. 44* here at 6am + Fog, 1/4 mile. 46* by 9am., 48* at 9:15am, Fog continuing. 50* at 10am. 53* at 11am, breezy, fog is gone. 57* at 11:33am, wind, rain going wild. Lasted just a few minutes, 54* at Noon. 51* at 1pm. 47* at 2pm. 38* by 5:30pm.

GFS Cross Section for 1pm Tomorrow: Pressure looks to be 975mb, with 30-35 knot winds from WSW. The LP is moving 50-60mph to the northeast itself, so seems like a short severe event and no more. NYC is at the center. Courtesy of AccuWeather. https://proa.accuweather.com/pro/model-grads-pro.asp?mt=12&mod=gfs&gv0=C&hr=30&gs=crosssect&mv8=scheme:wind&map=conus&mv5=1000&mv6=300&mv7=40.6,-74.5,40.7,-73.5&uid=4060-74504070-7350wind NAM has wild T swing of a steady 22 degree increase during the AM, [38-60] then a one hour 17 degree swoon around 1pm to 43 degrees. This is an important message from NY Alert HEADLINE: Wind Advisory issued February 06 at 3:37PM EST until February 07 at 7:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. INSTRUCTIONS: Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

Next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or about 8.5degs. AN. 42* here at 6am+Rain. 41* at 6:30am. 44* by Noon+drizzle. Next 17 days on the 06Z GFS are averaging 35degs., or about 1deg. AN, with 7" of Snow from the 17th onward.

Gotta love what JB has been doing by changing analogs by the week or two in one week, hoping to hit the right one. Then when some uninformed idiot interviews him he will point to that one and not be asked about all the 'fails'. This is could also be prearranged----DON'T ASK ME ABOUT THAT ONE!........I TOLD YOU THAT. This is regularly done on the business channels when so called gurus and experts are given a chance to blab away a 'commercial announcement' w/o challenge. Even the written word is corrupted this way when you read a series of real news stories, then come to one with the microtype THIS IS A SPONSORED AD but you miss the fine print. You can't get out of a hole by making it bigger and deeper........... unless you intend to dig all the way through the Earth and emerge from the antipodes point. LOL Really this weekend looks like the only chance for snow as THK stays near critical level all the rest of the time. The 17/18 probably has no precipitation anyway.

The next 8 days are averaging 41.5degs., or about 8degs. AN. 42* here at 6am. Really little movement here today, 46* at 4pm. Due to the hot start, the remainder of the month already needs to be almost -2 to get back to normal. The next 17 days are averaging 37degs(06Z, GFS)., or about 2degs. AN. Only a little snow showing during Week 3 of the month. This would put us at +4 for the month by around the 21st. The 12Z, GFS is up to an average of 41degs. or about 6degs. AN, and it has No Snow. The 41deg. Mean would be like Dec. 05 or Mar. 13. Well at least that is settled. LOL.

EURO is headed for the 60's next week. GFS pushes any cold further into the future and is not worth mentioning. Model verification is non-existent and it seems like the data ingested by the models is not being measured, but rather produced by a random number generator somewhere. Really, the first TS Cluster of the year is more likely than a blizzard. I bet anything like a blizzard WILL NOT BE PREDICTED much ahead of time. Judah Cohen told SD a month ago that the winter was over due to a Sudden Ionospheric Warming, which he could not find a cause for, but which guaranteed the PV would remain strong. I mentioned it here, but saw no comments. YIKES Central Park got up to 60 and I have held a straight line for 3 hours now (4pm-7pm) at 58*, my High for today (dare I say so far?) 59* at 8pm. Did It!

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 8degs. AN. 47* here at 6am. 46* at 6:30am. 45* at 9am. 49* by Noon, earlier drizzle. 54* by 3pm. 55* at 3:15pm. 56* at 3:30pm. 58* at 4pm. Great News! 06Z GFS is averaging 29* [in it's last 5 days] Sorry, fooled ya. Actually 38* over the next 17 days, or about 3degs. AN. It has a total of 18" of snow this run. EURO Weeklies have us on the borderline of AN/BN by late in 3rd week of February. For February it is +3/4. The start of sustained 'cold weather' has slipped in the last week from the 13th. to the 16th.

OK, so when can we start a Topic that roots for (and tracks) a Top Ten Warm Winter to the bloody finish line. AccuWeather again raised the projected T, early in the month, this time for February, to +3 or better. They went up 5 degrees to +6 and came close in January. For the Met Winter we need a +3.1 finish and we are now +3.5+. For the calendar winter we are +7.0 and I do not know what the hottest 90-day period is reckoning from Dec. 22, but it must be similar to the +6.5 warmest ever winter. Another record to explore would be fewest BN Days (for the calendar winter----we might have just 8 to 10 by Feb. 20, if we are lucky. (currently 6)

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs., or 9degs. AN. 40* here at 6am. 39* at 6:25am. 49* by Noon. 50* by 1pm. 55* by 3pm, but I am nice and cool, I have a sea breeze LOL. 56* by 3:30pm. 57* at 4pm. The next 17 days on the 06Z GFS are averaging 36.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. 12Z sucks too, cooks up 6 more 50-Degree Days and maybe 1 BN at end of run (Feb. 17,18), which should disappear presently---then more toasties incoming. EURO is 13" on the 9th.; GFS is 8" total on 3 different dates---7th., 13th., 17th.; CMC is 3" on the 10th. 12Z EURO gets lost on way to the big storm---NO SNOW anymore. Only way to stop this silliness is to have these models take the FIFTH and refuse to produce any output.

The CMC is indeed the snowiest in the next 10 day period. 11" in two rounds. 7" Wed. night, then 4" on the 9th. This will melt while still in the program's memory. I do not believe anything happens till PV looms close to us from the 13th-18th. Look for an accident at that time.

Next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 10degs. AN. Feb. 02-18 is averaging 37degs., or about 3degs. AN, with 7" of Snow near the 13th. again. PV never overwhelms this area by moving S and E of us, and warm air keeps getting involved in the mix which can be good for storms----but only in a clash with Arctic air. WINTER TO DATE: since Dec. 01 +3.5 since Dec. 22 +7.0 (includes Feb. 01) 39* here at 6am. Streets are wet. 38* at 6:30am. 41*, partial sunshine at 10am. 44* by 3pm. Down to 39* windy, drizzle by 4:30pm.