CIK62

FLASH! 12Z GFS shows first 80-Degree Day for the 19th!. Still has some snow near the 12th-13th. It has 14 of the next 17 days up to at least 50. The average T for the period 52*[44/59] .

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 6degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/53], or about 3degs. AN. 68* on the 16th. is the star. Down to 1" of snow for the 11th-12th. 41* here at 6am. 42* by 9am. 47* by Noon. 51* by 3pm. 53* about 4pm. Down to 44* by 5:30pm.

Don't laugh because the GFS has continually shown snow action for the 11th-12th,, actually for days. Current run is 27" here!!!. Then 5 winter like days follow------all that snow on the ground------you know what that does for the BL. For a six day period it averages just 30degs., about 12degs. BN------where is it tapping the cold air from? Maybe the model is trying to score Brownie Points with the meteorological community---------you know the kind you get on your shoes when you step in it. lol.

The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 7degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 47*[38/56] or about 5degs. AN. It still insists on snow near the 11th-12th, this time 11". 46* here at 6am. 51* by Noon. 57* by 3:30pm. 58* at 4pm. 51* by 9pm.

GETTING SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER/RAIN/WIND here (Coney Island) at 10:12pm. 53* now.

The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 8degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/52], or about 4degs. AN. It still amazingly has 2" of snow near the 11th-12th. The 12Z update is [39/52] and no snow. For spite, the LR modelling shows a continuous trough for us starting March 21 and going on and on to early May, when the modelling ends. lol. 50* here at 6am. Well 50* seems to have held by me since 5am, now 50* at 8am. 51* at 9am. Sorry, down to 48* by Noon---got to 52* first, however. Spent most of the PM (2:30-4:30) at 46*,47* with rain/fog.

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or 6degs., AN. 40* here at 6am. Was 38* overnight. 42* at 7am. 44* by 9am. 47* at 10am. 48* by Noon. Up steadily to 53* by 8pm. Peaked at 55** at 9:30pm. Because of the outlook for the month, we might as well remember these landmarks: March Normal: 42.5 10th. Place: 46.8, +4.3. 1st. Place: 51.1, +8.6. Now here comes a '06Z, GFS' spitball. The average T for the next 17 days is 38degs., or 3degs. BN with a 20"snowstorm near the 11th---12th. After the 'storm' T averages 32degs.! This is similar to an earlier run that immediately corrected.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 4degs. AN(used 26/40 for today). The first 17 days of March are averaging(06Z,GFS) 43degs., [37/49]or about 2 degs. AN. Slight chances for snow on the 7th. and the 11th. The models should take to rolling Craps, instead of predicting the atmosphere. lol. The next 30 days and next 90 days look super similar to each other with a SE Ridge-Mid Atlantic Ridge and the attendant AN T's east of the Mississippi. In fact the whole NH could have the same thing said about it, except the Polar regions head from BN to just Normal during the next three months, every other anomalous zone stays the same. 27* here at 6am., overnight low was 26*. 30* by 9am. 32* by about 10am. 34* at 11am. 36* at Noon. 38* at 1pm. 43* by 3pm. 46* at 4pm. 42* by 7pm.

12Z, GFS has 25" near the 11th., followed by at least 5 days of mid-winter weather! Sorry, the Ensemble has zilch. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020022912&fh=282

The last day of February is averaging 34degs., or 4degs. BN. Month to date is +5.2[40.5]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]-----5th. Place. So starting with Dec. 22, just 13 days out of 70 have been BN days. Or 28 days out of 91, starting Dec. 01. The first week of March is averaging 45degs., or about 5degs. AN. 11 of the first 16 days of March are 50-Degree Days apparently, just next weekend offers anything winterlike. The first 16 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS) 43.5degs.[37/50], or about 3degs. AN, with the snow 'a la carte' on this run, near Mar. 11. Interesting coincidence just in case: Our last snow was Jan. 18, the same as 1997-98, before that 5" on March 22. Then the greatest ridge ever seen at the end of March took over and the last 5 days of the month were all in the 80's. 29* here at 6am. 30* by 8am. 32* by 10am. 34* by Noon and looking like flurries might happen. 32* by 4pm and some flurries. 28* by 10pm.

The last 2 days of February are averaging 35degs., or 3degs. BN. Month to date is +5.6[40.7]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]. The first 15 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs.[35/49], or about 2degs. AN. Output is snow less. Last measurable snow was Jan. 18. 30* here at 6am. 32* by 8:30am. 34* by 10:30am. 38* by 1pm. Topped out at 42* at 4:30pm. 38* by 9pm. 36* by 11pm.

The last 3 days of February are averaging 36degs., or 2degs. BN.(used 47/33 for today) Month to date is +5.8[40.8]. February should end at +5.0[40.3]. The first 14 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 46degs., maybe 7degs. AN, with no snow and just one winter like day near March 08----that is all. 44* here and breezy at 6am. 43* at 7am. 41* by 9am. 40* by 10am. 39* at 10:30am, but 41* at 11am. 43* by 4pm. 35* by 6:30pm. 32* by 9pm.

The last 4 days of February are averaging 41degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +5.7[40.6]. February should end at +5.3[40.7]. The first 13 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS) 42degs., or about 2.5degs. AN., with minor snow threats, 2" on the 5th. The T cut is 35/49 for the period. 48* here at 6am. 49* at 7am. 50* at 8am. 51* by Noon. 47* by 10pm.

The last 5 days of February are averaging 41.5degs., or 3.5degs. AN. Month to date is +5.4[40.3]. February should end near +5.3[40.8], or 4th. Place. The 06Z, GFS is averaging 42degs., or 2.5degs. AN over the first 12 days of March with 70's possible near March 05. There is a slight advertisement for some snow (TRACE) during the four day cold period of 2/28---3/02. 48* here at 6am. 47* at 7am. 49* by Noon, was 50* briefly. 52* by 2pm. 49* by 4pm.

EURO WEEKLIES continue to Burn the Fern at about +4 for the next 6 week average. At this rate we'll have to have Walter Cronkite interrupt AS THE WORLD BURNS by saying: GW fired three shots at the Earth today as it revolved around the sun. First reports say the wounds to the Earth may have been fatal.

The Meteorological Winter will end somewhere between +3.91 and +4.07 degrees. The folly of LR Forecasting exposed: If a Top Ten Warmest and Top Ten Least Snowiest Winter does not give itself away ahead of time , why would a 1 or 2 +/- SD winter do so? As a long as we keep using a bogus 30 year normal, just say AN T's when asked. It is like playing craps and substituting loaded dice when it is your turn. At any rate, the GFS has 9 out of the first 11 days of March at a high of at least 50. Hope my sea breeze gives me the 80's when the City is in the 90's since I stopped at 52 today.

The last 6 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +5.0[39.8]. February should end near +5.1[40.4]. 41* here at 6am. 43* by 9am. 50* by Noon. The first 11 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS} 42.5degs., or about 3degs. AN. All models are snow less and the EURO looks like it wants to hit 70 in 10 days.

The last 7 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.8[39.4]. February should end at +4.9[40.2]. 39* here at 6am. 44* by 10am. 49* by 1pm. 50* at 1:30pm. 52* at 2pm. Due to sea breeze, topped out at 53* at 2:30pm. 45* by 10pm. The first 10 days of March are averaging 41degs., or about 2 to 3 degrees AN, but model(06Z,GFS) is snow less.

The last 8 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.8[39.4]. February should end near +4.9[40.2], or 5th. Place. The March cooldown now consists of five days in the 60's!!!. I'll calculate the damage when I recover. OK, the (06Z, GFS) is averaging 47degs. for the first 9 days of March, or about 8 or 9 degrees AN. 31* here at 6am. 32* by 8am. 41* by Noon. 47* by 2pm. 50* at 3pm. 52* at 4pm. 47* by 6pm. 43* by 11pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +5.5[40.0]. Should be near +5.6[40.9] by the 29th. February will finish in 5th. or as high as 3rd. place. The last 9 days of the Meteorological Winter may add 0.40 to that 39.0, shown below. 22* here at 6am. 25* by 9am. 29* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. 38* by 4pm. Made it to 40* at about 4:30pm here. 39* at 5pm. 35* by 7pm. 33* by 10pm. All models are snow less except that the GFS has snow at 300 hours.

Just try this one! I estimate a July analog to December 2015 would consist of 34 straight AN days that would average 76/92 or 84* for the period. Laugh Now---Die Later

The next 8 days are averaging 41.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.1[40.5]. February should be near +5.5[40.7] by the 28th. The last 10 days of February are averaging (0Z,GFS) 38.5degs., so February should end near +4.5[39.8]. The first 6 days of March were a toasty 46degs.! Only the CMC has some snow near the 27th. 30* here at 6am. 33* by 9am. 35* by Noon.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or 3degs. AN. (used 32/45 for today) Month to date is +6.2[40.5]. Should be about +5.2[40.0] by the 27th. The last 11 days of February are averaging 40.1, so February should end near +5.0[40.3], 5th Place. No snow action except near the 27th. 44* here at 6am. 43* by 8am. 42* at 9am. 46* by Noon. 48* by 2pm. 49* by 4pm. 47* at 5pm. 39* by 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.1[40.4]. Should be +5.5[40.3] by the 26th. 42* here at 6am. 47* by 10am. 50* by Noon. The last 12 days of February are averaging 40degs., so February should end near +5.0[40.3] All models are pitching a snow shutout.