CIK62

COME BACK WHEN YOU GROW UP STORM------ First mentioned a possible Biggie on Aug. 27 due here, say Sept. 14. I guess this baby with a different etiology, will have to do. LOL At any rate, it looks like that Mid-West front will kick it away, under setup shown. Let's see how long this holds up as a threat.

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 8.5degs. AN. Make it +3.5. GFS lost all rains till next weekend. EURO is the wet one---Wed. thru Sunday. 69*(52%RH) here at 6am., m. clear.

But even the "I Forgot to Take My Meds Today---GFS" is only showing near 90 around this time and goes BN by Sept.17-----which I suspect may be lower than indicated, with its + Bias.

The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 8.5degs. AN. Make it 3.5degs. The tropical threats are seemingly nil for the next 15 days with multiple Fish or Fishy systems. The strongest development never makes it past 45^ W att. It starts in a nice spot like 12^N---but is westwardly challenged anyway. Earliest meaningful EC hit now say Sept. 25? 71*(95%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 79*(72%RH) by Noon. 86*(45%RH) by 4pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 8degs. AN. Make it 3degs. AN. 75*(88%RH) at 6am, thin overcast, breaks. 81*(51%RH) by Noon. 86*(50%RH) by 3pm.

The T's for the GFS OP which I am getting from the WB site, are too high at least around this part of the earth and during the summer----maybe all the time. Even worse would be an unpredictable magnitude and directional error that varied by location and time of the year! lol. In the last two years it has indicated more 100-Degree Days would occur than 100-Degree Days in the City's history (about 60 in 151 years). There were none, other than a lone 100 at LGA last year. Last year it had the nerve to show 5 straight 100-Degree Days with two of them breaking the All-Time High of 106-----a 107 then 108 the next day!!! It has shown 16-day stretches that would average +12 or better if correct----etc. Now that members have asked, I am simply removing 5 degrees on these 8-day estimates, which include the current day. So I assume when it shows Normal for the next 8 days-----this could turn out to mean -5!

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 7.5 degs. AN. Or just 2.5degs. AN, if you do not trust the GFS. Small tropical system near 36N 69W? Rainout next week back after L.D. on the GFS. 72*(93%RH) here at 6am, mean dark clouds, streets wet, drizzle. Got to 81* by 3pm with a little bit of weak sun. 76* by 6pm.

Ad-Free Secondary Group 3,219 posts Location:ConeyIsland Report post Posted 2 hours ago JB is kind enough to present what should have been last winter's forecast as this winter's Outlook: +3 around here. Actually last winter was probably +4.

August ended at +1.7[76.9]. The first 8 days of September are averaging 77degs., or 5degs. AN. Or if you prefer, just Normal. Holiday Weekend OK except for Labor Day itself. lol. Sept. 8 ---14 still looks real wet. 68*(94%RH), overcast, streets wet. 80*(72%RH) by 3:30pm with more sun than predicted the last 90mins.

The first 10 days of September are averaging 76.5degs., or 5degs. AN. Feel free to subtract 5 degrees from this GFS average, and just call the first 10 days Normal. Sept. 08---14 seems real wet. September/October appear trendless. We start off at 5820m on the 500mb heights and maybe the upcoming week looks AN. The only other deviating week would be: Week 3 of October, which is BN. The 5820m at that time is down to Cuba.

The last day of August and the meteorological summer is averaging 73degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +1.9[77.1]. August will end at +1.8[77.0]. 67*(59%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast.

The last 2 days of August are averaging 74degs., or 1 degree AN. Month to date is +2.0[77.2]. August should end near +1.8[77.0]. 68*(69%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 70*(61%RH) by 9am. 74*(50%RH) by Noon. A clear area on satellite is approaching for say the 2pm-4pm. 80*(38%RH) by 5pm. Was on beach. A little too windy and some minor dust devils here. Otherwise OK. Rides all still closed, but with the Aquarium opened partially but by appointment only, it looked a little like a real Coney Island Sunday judging by a fully loaded Aquarium parking lot.

The last 3 days of August are averaging 75.5degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.3]. August should end at +1.9[77.1]. To play it safe with this GFS, end at +1.6[76.8]. 72*(96%RH)here at 6am, street wet, broken overcast. 73*(95%RH) at 7am.

The last 4 days of August are averaging 78degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.2]. August should end at +2.1[77.3], or correcting for a +3 bias of the GFS at this range, end at +1.7[76.9]. It still appears while final arrangements to open the NYC School System on Sept. 10th. is in progress-----there is a chance they may have to be making simultaneous plans to fashion them out as hurricane shelters. A Cat. 3 still showing up near EC on some runs for Sept. 12,13. Critical period for this latter outcome will take place the first week of Sept. Meanwhile Laura Leftovers may leave from 0.5" to 1.2" here, mostly from 11am-5pm Saturday. 71*(88%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-cirrus. 78*(72%RH) by 11am. 80*(67*RH) at Noon. 85*(60%RH) by 4pm, but some light rain now threatening.

The last 5 days of August are averaging 78degs., or 4.5 degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[77.2]. August should end at +1.9[77.3]. Correcting the GFS bias of +4 at this range, August should end at +1.4[76.6]. Cat. 3 threatens EC around Sept. 13. Long runner. Takes shape off Africa Sept. 1-3. 73*(66%RH) at 6am, ground wet, overcast. 72*(68%RH) at7am. 78*(73&RH) by Noon. 86*(65%RH) by 2pm. 89*(58%RH) by 4pm. 90* at 6pm with a HX of 98*.

The last 6 days of August are averaging 79degs., or 5.5degs. AN Month to date is +1.9[77.4]. August should end at +2.5[77.7]. Correcting for a +4 GFS bias at this range, August should end at +1.7[76.9]. GFS actually shows more of a threat from a post frontal passage spinup Sept. 1-2(20-30mph winds and 3" of rain) than from Laura's leftovers. Of course there is now that Cat. 4 appearing at the end of the run near the Bahamas. 70*(62%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 69*(62%RH) at 7am. 70*(50%RH) at 10am. 71*(47%RH) at 11am. 73*(43%RH) at Noon.

12Z GFS is weaker by 9mb. at landfall, but right up Tx-La border still. JB thinks it will be farther west. Beaumont TX may be in trouble here.

The last 7 days are averaging 80degs., or 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[77.3]. August.should end near +2.7[77.9]. Corrected for GFS +5 bias, +1.6[76.8]. All models have 3 more 90-Degree Days before summer ends, 8/31. Tropical debris figure on leaving just 0.5"-1.0" around Saturday. 75*(83%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast. 79*(77%RH) by 9am. 85*(60%RH) by Noon.

The last 8 days of August are averaging 81degs., or 7.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5[77.1]. August should end at +2.9[78.1]-----or correcting a +5* GFS bias----end at +1.6[76.8]. 75*(93%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue sky. Getting away lucky here at just 80*(80%RH) by Noon. 81* by 12:30pm. 83*(75%RH) at 1pm. 84*(73%RH) at 1:30pm-Heat Index is 91* Nearest TS now near Allentown. 85*(78%RH) at 3pm, Heat Index is 95*. Got to 89* at 5:30pm. 86* at 6:30pm. Quick look at Sept: Weeks 1,2 near Normal, + bias. 5820-40m 500mb Heights stick around. Weeks 3,4 near Normal but with a -- bias. So overall Normal.

The next 8 days are averaging 80.5degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is +1.3[77.0]. Should be about +2.9[78.0] by the 31st. More likely the 78.0 is 76.6, correcting for the GFS bias of +5.0, a topic for separate discussion. A quick 3" rain event and 30mph gusts from the tropical duo debris, next Saturday around here? GFS only. 12Z GFS already down to just 1" from the tropical remnants. 73*(89%RH) here at 6am., thin-scattered overcast. Was 82* at Noon but back to 80* by 1pm.

DO NOT BLAME ME. THE GFS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD RUNS 5 DEGREES TOO WARM, AT LEAST IN THE SUMMER. I MENTIONED THIS MANY TIMES. I WILL CALCULATE BY SUBTRACTING 5 FROM THE AVERAGE AND USE THAT TO GET A RANGE. I JUST USE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OTHERWISE.

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +1.1[76.8]. Should be near +3.0[78.2] by the 30th. 74*(88%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast. 88*(60%RH) at 5pm. Home from the beach.

Trouble in 120 Hours for New Orleans and forced changes to our forecast by this time next week? Other models not as strong as this Cat. IV hit with a last hours intensity explosion:

Latest Winter Outlook (DJF) as of (Aug. 20) from government, has AN as 1.6x more likely than BN around here. I think the summer was called 4.5x more likely to be AN, this far out---so a smaller hurdle to surmount.