CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or just Normal. 60*(78%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, haze. 66* by 1pm, filtered sun, cool breeze around here. From Delta's remains: EURO. 2.0", GFS 1.3", GEM 1.0", SREF Plumes 2.0". EURO likes the 17th. for a separate event too.

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs. Making it 56degs., or -3.0. 54*(56%RH) here at 6am. 55* at 7am. 60* by 11am. 64* by 2pm. 65* at 3pm. 67* at 4pm. 70* around 5pm. 65* by 8m. 62* by 10pm. Tropics: 26.7N 93.9W. LA. coast already getting 30mph + winds. Eye should cross LA coastline near 92.5W(going to be closer to 92.8W) around 8pm this evening with 80mph+ winds still possible. 28.6N 93.6W by 4pm. We should get 2"-3" during late Sunday to Thursday AM. All models in on this. NW NJ---32* and a bit of white near Oct. 22?

The 12Z GFS for the next 16 days still has 8 days in the 70's upcoming. A normal high of 70 went out the window with September. It averages 64degs., from which I would subtract 8 degrees at this range. So just about Normal for the period sounds reasonable. BN does not get underway till the 21st. Maybe it will really start sooner. The ENS is about 58 for the this period.

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or about +4.0. 57*(RH56%) here at 6am. 56* at 6:30am, m. clear. 60* by Noon. 62* at 1pm. 64* by 4pm. Tropics: 28.4N 91.7W Well, KWO-35 finally put the word rain into their forecast starting Sunday---- proofing that even an AMBE Chip Voice can be right. Seriously, they must have been following the rainless EURO.

Yep. This is a big flip. Crosses coast further east in the Gulf. Goes to show that atmospheric models can change faster than a political candidate. Watch the debate tonight.

Models are helpless and hopeless in determining if we will get any rain here Sun/Mon. The NWS on KWO-35 does not even have the word rain in its forecast for the period. EURO has T going past 80 then. Look out GFS! I am the champ when it comes to future high T's around here----the EURO exclaims!! EURO still just a TRACE over the next 10 days. GFS has 2"+. EURO Weeklies Control Member has no RAIN till Halloween, I believe!

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or about +3.0. 60*(85%RH) here at 6am. 68* by Noon. 70* at 1pm. 72* at 2pm. 74* at 2:30pm, wild SW winds picking up sand now(I am at home of course) Tropics: 20.6N 86.3W. GFS still wet here next Monday from the above system 'Delta'. EURO has little rain here. EURO hits the TX/LA border, and the GFS is east of this. Remnants do not get get to be over the Atlantic on the EURO, so nothing here.

Models turn WWW for the next two weeks. Warmer Wetter Windier 925mb winds exceed 40mph on 8 different days in the next 16, supposedly. Tomorrow's cross section. I am at the bottom center. The numbers are RH, not the wind. Compare this with area near New Orleans in about 84 hours:

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or +1.0. The GFS has 11 days in the 70's, one of them 81---- over the next 17 days and it averages 66 for the period. I would make this 59 or less, given its +T bias. 70 is already AN on Oct. 01. Tropics: 21.3N 89.1W, 17.4N 81.4W 60*(84%RH) here at 6am. Down to 58* at 8am. 70* by 4pm. 72* at 5pm.

CVSv2 is easy to describe this week. AN all the way to the third week of November starting now. (weekly averages) Much warmer look than last week's run. I do not know why they bother producing these types of outputs. We know that worldwide every month the number of square miles of the earth's surface that will be significantly AN is many times the area that will come in BN. The audacity of any model or forecaster to claim to know where the BN spots will be!

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or -2.5. 57*(73%RH) at 6am overcast breaking up. 64*(60%RH) by 11am. 68* by 2pm. Tropics: 22.5N 87.9W, 16.1N 73.3W. Nothing but a Trace of rain for the next 10 days on all the major models.

The next 8 days are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about -2.5. 55*(66%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60* by 10am. 65* by Noon. 68* by 3pm. 69* by 5pm. 65* by 7pm. GFS is dry for the next two weeks. After a T pop next weekend, reaching 60 for a high may become difficult. Remember the GFS tends to show T's that are way too high around here anyway---and it is having trouble getting there. Meanwhile, Tampa has at least started off BN this month, in its effort to end a 29 month string w/o going BN. Just want to note the OP's and ENS. for Week 2 are completely different around here. Tropics: 22N 88W.

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about -4.5. 53*(69%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 7am, m. clear. 60* by 11:30am. 66* by 3pm. 67* by 4pm. 68* by 5pm. 61* by 10pm. The Tropics: 19N 87W---a Central America cross-over traitor?

Reached a pleasant 71* here at 5pm. Not quite the Record 93 of exactly one year ago today. I was on the beach that day and described it here as Hot with frequent Dust Devils out of the west. Down to 68* by 6pm. 59* by 11pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about -5.0. This GFS run has multiple days in the 80's by mid-month. It had a run in September like this with 7 80's, 1 90 and multiple lows in the 70's. It failed to materialize. Oh, yes, the Tropics again. Mischief at 18N 85W? 59*(66%RH) here at 6am, overcast, wet streets. 57* by 8am. 61*(65%RH) by 2pm, p. sunny. 67*(55%RH) by 4pm. 71*(45%RH) at 5pm.

September ended at +0.8[68.8]. The first 8 days of October are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about 3degs. BN. October figures to be about +1 on the month here. Precipitation is BN everywhere except Florida this month. I note that the southeastern states have the best chance at BN. Let's see if Tampa gets its 30th. straight month w/o going BN. March 2018 was the last time for them. Average is 56.9 for October now, but my 1968 Almanac has a 58.3 30- Year Normal back then. So even more cooling has occurred due to global warming this month, than last month, lol. Well at least it indicates November has warmed since 1968 by 0.7. Actually compares the +/- 15 year periods centered on 1945 and 1995. 61*(79%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 66*(70% RH) by 11am. 70*(60%RH) by 1:30pm---partial overcast. 72*(53%RH) at 2pm.

The last day of September is averaging 69degs. Making it 66degs., or +1.5. [[The first 7 days of October are averaging 65degs, making it 60degs., or -3.0]] Month to date is +0.7[68.9]. September should end at +0.8[68.8]. Remember my 1968 Almanac had a 30-Year Normal of 68.5 back then---it caught the Dirty 30's---in that. September has LOST 0.5 degree because of global warming?! 63*(97%RH) here at 6am, streets wet, mean looking overcast with breaks. 61*(91%RH) by 9am, breezy and clearing up. 67*(RH62%). by 2pm. 71*(53%) by 4pm.

The last 2 days of September are averaging 71degs. Making it 68, or +3.5. Month to date is +0.5[68.5]. September should end at 68.4, within +1.0. The first 10 days of October are averaging 62.5 on the GFS-just Normal. With its +6 to +8 bias at this range, BN for the period seems certain. 68%(97%RH) here at 6am. 69* at 6:30am, overcast.

The last 3 days of September are averaging 73degs. Making it 70degs., or 5.5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.1[68.7]. September should end at 68.8, within +1.0. 70*(97%RH) here at 6am. 69* at 6:30am-scattered clouds-Red Sky in Morning-Sailor Take Warning=did not work. 74* by 5pm. My call on September was Near Normal, +bias. This seems to have been the case. My call for October is for an even closer call of Near Normal +bias. Week 1 BN, Week 2 BN, Week 3 AN, Week 4 AN but going down.

Just heard on the radio of a "BRAIN EATING AMOEBA" in the drinking water in an area south of Houston, TX. Will this story supersede the COVID-19? Seems as harmless as COVID-19 was at the start. https://news.yahoo.com/6-old-boy-dies-suffering-182242656.html

12Z's: EURO is the wettest through Fri. AM at 3.1". Ensemble is 2.0". It also likes the Oct. 06 for another 3". GFS is 1.3" but its Ensemble is 2.7". GEM lagging behind at 0.6" and an Ensemble at 2".

The last 4 days of September are averaging 73degs. Making it 69degs., or +4. Month to date is -0.2[68.5]. September should end at 68.6, within +1.0. 69*(93%RH) here at 6am. 75*(80%RH) by 1pm.-clouds back in after hours of some sun. More sun again and up to 78* by 4pm.

The last 5 days of September are averaging 75degs. Making it 71degs., or +5.5. Month to date is -0.4[68.5]. September should end at 68.9, approaching +1.0. GFS back with the tropical system, Oct. 08-10. 6" of rain, including a period of 3" in just 6hrs. here on Oct. 10 AM. Wind gusts +50mph. This forecast has the validity/lifespan? of an ice cube in Death Valley during a July day. 66*(88%RH) here at 6am., scattered cloud cover. 70*(80%RH) by 10am. 75* by 3pm. 70* by 11pm.

The last 6 days of September are averaging 73degs. Making it 69degs., or +3.5. Month to date is -0.7[68.4]. September should end at 68.5, or near Normal. With the long range +5 to +8 ( or more) GFS bias, we should be due some lows in the the 40's during the first 10 days of October. 64*(86%RH) here at 6am, heavy haze. 63* at 7am. T again went nowhere around here, topping out at 74*, now 69*(90%RH)at 8pm.

The last 7 days of September are averaging 72degs. Making it 68degs., or +2.5. Month to date is -0.8[68.4]. September should end at 68.3, near Normal. I noticed my 1968 Almanac has the Normal for September at 68.5!---but now its 68.0?-with global warming?? 66*(60%RH) here at 6am, some overcast. 71* by 10am. Playing with 73*/74* for last hour (1pm-2pm), and cloudy.