CIK62

The GFS, after much deliberation with itself, has settled on 10 straight AN days to start November. The uncorrected average is 58degs., for the period. There is almost no precipitation for the period being indicated for us. November itself is looking AN everywhere in the US 48, with mostly linear flow from west to east. A dip in the flow over southeast Canada, making for AN Trough, might keep us closer to Normal than the rest of country. Another boring '30' to endure?

The last 7 days of October are averaging 53degs. Making it 48degs., or about -6.0. Month to date is 60.3[+2.4]. October should end at 57.9[+1.0]. 47*(60%RH) at 6am, scattered thin overcast. Briefly 46* near 7am. 50*(59%RH) by 10am. 55* briefly near 3pm. 54* by 4pm. Tropics: 42.3N 54.0W.

The last 8 days of October are averaging 55deg., making it 50degs., or about -3.0. Month to date is 60.4[+2.3]. Oct. should end at about 57.7[+0.8]. 62*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 64*(94%RH) by Noon. 68* between 2pm-5pm with a bit of sun and falling RH, now 68% at 5pm. 54*(55%RH} by 10pm. Tropics: 36.7N 62.3W.

COVID-19 & CANDIDA-AURIS & GLOBAL WARMING Yet another problem for hospitals as the population in them begins to explode: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/10/drug-resistant-superbug-candida-auris-thriving-hospitals-coronavirus-era/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20201023&rid=B9928FB3EBF090DA6038662B9C04F4BA

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs. Making it 52degs., or about -2.0. 62*(97%RH) here at 6am, ground wet, visibility about 5 miles-but not really clear. 63* by 9am, FOG<0.10 mile. Tropics: 33.2N 61.9W.

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or about +3.0. Little rain on this run, 0Z, for the 384hrs. 64*(97%RH) at 6am, FOG<0.5mile. 66* by 9am, same fog. 67* by Noon, fog lifts to reveal dirty look. 68* by 4pm. Tropics: 30.6N 61.0W. Misses Bermuda but 40' seas for Ireland in 6 days.

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or +3.0 Now the EURO is 25 degrees warmer than the GFS by the end of the month. BN delayed to the 30th. now? By November ENS/OP are dancing to a different (fill in). Tropics: 29.0N 58.4W. 61*(97%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.5 mile. 63* by 9am but still foggy. 64* by 10am with Fog lifting. 65* by Noon, some fog still around-vertical mixing not done yet. 67*(92%RH) by 2pm and still some fog lingers. 68* at 3pm but paradoxically fog back in. 64* by 7pm and foggy since 3pm.

Made it to 70* here by 4pm. GFS says 9 more of these, EURO says 6 more and the GEM 5 more. Model shortcomings will be appearing all winter because there will only be a few times when all forces are pulling in the same direction at the same time. Each model will latch on to a different operative and then exchange rolls with another model or even one of its own runs. Only experienced mets with a lot of luck are going to beat the models, despite the dismal track record that they will likely be accruing for themselves. This period was frustrating with a snow bearing TS that never formed, turning into a 70 Degree Day. Near the 26th, that is. Gonna look like the gaming floor in Las Vegas rather than NWS Headquarters. Excitement/Frustration awaits.

The next 8 days are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about +5.0. Tropics: 25.8N 55.1W. 62*(95%RH) here at 6am. Was foggy/rain around 8am. 65* by 11am. 66* by 1pm. 67* by 2pm 68* by 2:30pm. 69* by 3:00pm. 70* by 4pm. (mostly sunny here since 2pm). 63* by 9pm.

GFS gets the last laugh guys! Starting tomorrow it has 10-straight 70-Degree Days and the cold is pushed ahead another day to the 30th. It is never getting here. IT IS NOT OF THE BODY----IT MUST BE ABSORBED............It Is The Will of La Nina! >>>>>Thank you Star Trek. Meanwhile Billings, Montana will probably have as much winter weather between Oct. 22-27, as we will have all winter here. 15" of snow and some near zero readings over that span.

The next 8 days are averaging 66degs. Making it 61degs., or +5.0(remember this is really +10). GFS has 8 70-Degree Days in a row starting tomorrow. What last week looked like snow near the 26th., is now a 70-Degree Day. 70's come right back in November now too. Latest DJF Outlook makes an AN Winter more likely. Now you must put at risk a $1.75 instead of $1.60 to win $1.00 when you bet on an AN Winter. One more run before the heatwave actually starts, it would seem. The summer outlook at this range was a $4.30 risk and we appropriately ended in the Top Ten. 57*(75%RH) here at 5am. 56*(78%RH) at 6am., scattered thin clouds. 55*(80%RH) at 7am. 60* at 9am. 62* at 10am. 64* at 11am. 65* at Noon.

I mentioned days ago of a possible record high on the 22nd. Unfortunately it was 88* in 1979 on that date after a winter like bout that saw snow flurries/wet snow all day back on Oct. 10, 1979. The GFS has 8 70-Degree Days incoming [in the next 11 days] and one of those is 80* on the 22nd. The cold air is getting worn out just reaching the EC----now another day later on the 29th. As a quick aside: Tampa is way in line for its 30th. consecutive month w/o going BN, at +3.9 so far. Also, I think in the last 11 years there will still be just one BN month out of 22 (Sept./Oct)(NYC) when this month ends around here. Boy how we need next year's 30 Year Normal update in order to get our perspective straight.

The next 8 days are averaging 60degs. Making it 55degs., or about +4.0(remember this is really predicting +9.0) There are 6 or 7, 70-Degree Days, still incoming on the EURO/GFS in the next 10 days. BN end to month erased? Models S_CK. There is still a front sweeping by the 27th., but there is no storm for it to phase with anymore. 52* (55%RH) here at 6am. 51* at 6:30am. 60* by 11am. 63* by 3pm. 64* during 4pm-5pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or about +3.0. BN period keeps slipping forward. 48*(80%RH) here at 6am. 47* at 7am. 53*(48%RH) by Noon. 58*(38%RH) by 3pm. 62* by 5pm.

Lois Lane (Phyllis Coates version thereof) sure had a nose for news! Look closely. Here she has already sniffed out Covid-19, 68 years before the news broke----and she is wearing her mask. Wonder if she knew anything about the weather? Lol. Superman 1952 Philip Pine, Tristam Coffin have Herd Immunity.

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about +2.0. It actually has 6 70-Degree Days in a row upcoming, after brief BN cameo. EURO ditto to 5 70-Degree Days. I have to question the signing to a leading role by the GFS of BN for a final October week opening. Lol. 1.3" to 2.0" today into early Saturday. 64*(96%RH) here at 6am. Down to 55*(95%RH) by Noon as rain came in during last few hours. 53*(91%RH) by 5pm. 52*(92%RH) by 10pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or about +1.0. BN period that was suppose to start the 17th. will be brief. The BN period set for the 21st.-----becomes the 25th. now and record heat for the 22nd. sneaks in? Models S_CK! At any rate, one must bet that the last 5 days of the month will have cold, rain, sleet and wind----in some yet unknown atmospheric concoction. About 1" rain for tomorrow/Saturday early. GEM has just 0.2". September was hottest one in history they say. 59*(80%RH) here at 6am. 64*(74%RH) by 11am. 65* by 1pm. Never got past 66*(4pm-5pm) with the south wind and filtered sun around here.

The next 8 days are averaging 59degs. Making it 54degs., or about -3.0. FLASH: GFS (0Z) has 3.3" SNOW around the 26th-27th! But before that, another inch or two of rain on Fri-Sat. Today 66 to 69, Tomorrow 71 to 76---in and around NYC, briefly 67 on Friday. 53*(81%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60*(68%RH) by 12:30pm. 63*(62%RH) by 2pm. 68*(56%RH) by 4pm. 69* at 5pm. 62* by 10pm.

Concerning the next 30-Day 2M T Anomalies for the nation, the EURO Weeklies and CFSv2 look like Matter-AntiMatter. Which will be right? Or will they both go before the Firing Squad together? btw: The EURO is the warm one.

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or just Normal. Seems the BN period will not start now till the 22nd---instead of the 17th. A waiting for the bus on a discontinued route scenario may be in the works. lol. 57*(99%RH) here at 6am. 60*(97%RH) by Noon.

The CFSv2 is hinting at the period starting after Oct. 17 and continuing all the way out to the start of December, could average BN overall. 500mb Heights rarely are AN. November has given us 6 BN months in the last 10 years----but then this gets coupled to an AN December usually---I believe. NB Only Suicide Jockeys call for long term BN T's.

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs. Making it 56degs., or about -2.0 to -3.0. 54*(83%RH) here at 6am, rain. 52*(85%RH) by 7:30am.

The next 8 days are averaging 60degs. Making it 55degs. , or about -2.0. 64*(91%RH) here at 6am. 66*(76%RH) by 9am. 67*(64%RH) by Noon. 69*(60%RH) by 3pm. 65*(61%RH) by 6pm. 62*(72%RH) by 9pm. Delta's leftovers[34.3N 87.6W]: NAM 3", GEM 2.8", GFS 1.8", EURO 1.7", SREF 2.0"---heaviest about 11am tomorrow. Could start by 5pm today. More tropical activity in the Carribean by Oct. 21st.? Similiar to Sandy by Oct. 27th?? Deep trough in Midwest like Sandy setup---I think. It was the 500mb connection, in the upper atmosphere,(and blocking) that pulled Sandy back to the EC, they said. Let's see first if we even get a tropical system there by the 21st. to ponder over.

THROUGH MONDAY 8PM only. Flash Flood threat is Marginal at 5%. The SREF Plumes are back up by about 0.5" in latest output to 2.3".

Is that smoke or mostly clouds over us? May be brightening up soon. T struggling to get to 70 here---now 68 at 2:40pm. Made it to 70 around 4pm, some weak rays of sun appeared too. Topped out at 71 around 5pm here.