CIK62

I like the November 1975 Heatwave: Starting Nov. 02>>> 68,74,78,73,65,71,76,75,67,63. The last two weeks of October had been warm too. There were four more scattered 60's before the month ended The first 32 or less after this was on December 02. We went sub-zero in January 1976 despite this or perhaps because of it. lol. Two or up to four more 70's coming up this go-round.

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.[54/67]. Making it 56degs., or +7.0. GEFS does not have a single BN day upcoming in the next 16. 55*(73%RH) here at 6am. 56* at 7am. 58* at 8am. 60* at 9am. 61* at 10am. [67*,EWR, 66* JFK, 64* NYC] NOON ROUNDUP>>>> I have 65*, JFK, NYC 70*, LGA 71*, EWR 74* Finally 70* here at 2pm----by contrast, EWR holding at 76*, same as its 1pm reading. 71* at 2:15pm. 72* at 2:30pm. 73* at 2:45pm, but still 73* at 3pm.---EWR also continued at 76*. Topped out at 73*. 69* by 5pm. Tropics: 18.8N 83.2W.

A strange T progression and T distribution around our neck of the woods. I just hit 69* at 4pm. I have moved up rapidly while other locations had already topped out. JFK apparently only 64*, while Newark was 73*. NYC 70*. LGA 72*. The next 6 days are averaging 64*, or about +14, uncorrected. Rain from Eta? is coming a day earlier now. At any rate the GFS knocked off a full 10 degrees from the 13th. on latest run.

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(58/70). Making it 59degs., or +10[really +15]. No reading below 50* till the 15th! 56*(86%RH) here at 6am---thin, variable overcast. 58*(85%RH) by 11am. 60* by Noon. 61* by 12:30pm. 62* by 1pm. 63* by 2pm. 66* by 3:30pm. 67* by 3:45pm. 69*(67%RH) by 4pm. Tropics: 17.2N 87.3W---back over the water.

An incredible onslaught of 15 days worth of Double_Digit 850mb T's are incoming. Normal is probably 4C to 3C. Look at this. We got away lucky last year. As the Earth Burns:

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.[56/69] Making it 58degs., or +8(really +13, and ala December 2015 rate) After today, still 6 60's and 4 70's to go. No BN through the 20th. 53*(85%RH) here at 6am, some fog, 5 mi. FOG<0.20/drizzle has taken over here by 6:30am. 55*(90%RH) at 9am, FOG trying to leave, T is bouncing around. 60*(83%RH) by Noon, had cleared up by 10am. 63* at 2pm. 65* at 3pm. Tropics: Really undefined, but near 13.7N 85.6W. Only a Greek Letter can save us from Purgatory---around the 15th.

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or +7 ie. really +12 predicted. With the lower anomaly, November, will be +3.3 by the 12th. We need to end at +5.2 to be #1. 9 60's in a row, including some 70's. Only back to Normal by the 13th----then AN again? GFS 06Z 4 60's and 5 70's still to go after today. 44*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 50* by 9am.(is this the lowest T I will see till the 13th.? So says the GFS! 51* by 9:30am. 53* by 10am. 54* by 11am. 55*(60%RH) at Noon. 56* at 12:15pm. 57* at 12:30pm. 59* by 1pm. 60* by 2pm. 62*(68%RH) at 3pm. 58*(66%RH) by 7pm. Tropics: 13.4N 84.5W---weakening inland Nicaragua/Honduras.

WHAT IS THE LINK FOR THIS GFSx OUTPUT. WASN'T IT DISCONTINUED? I JUST KEEP GETTING BOUNCED BETWEEN SITES AND NEVER GET ANY OUTPUT WHEN I HIT: SUBMIT REQUEST. Thanks.

The next 8 days are averaging 59degs. Making it 54degs., or +4.0. After today the GFS(0Z) has 15 out of the next 16 days in the 60's, four of those in the 70's. Oh!, and I am keeping that one day a secret. There is virtually no rain to boot. High T averages 69*, Nov.5-15. Leaves little doubt on at least the next 10-12 days. Tropics: 13.9N 83.3W---hitting Nicaragua. 42*(50%RH) here at 5am. 44* at 5:30am. 50* by 10:30am. 51* at 11am. 52* at Noon. 53* at 12:30pm. 54* by 2:30pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs. Making it 52degs., or +2.0. GFS has an average un-corrected 7 day high of 69degs., starting the 5th. Even EURO has 8 straight 60-Degree Days. No changes till at least the 12th. GFS 06Z. 9 60's incoming(four of them in the 70's)---80* Going Once, Twice............. GFS 12Z 11 60's incoming. See, I told you it was getting better. Well---final Election Results should be known by the next BN period. For Reference: Warmest November was in 2015 at 52.8[+5.1]. It had 5 70-Degree Days. We could get some too. 39*(60%RH) here at 5am. 40*(62%RH) by 7am. 41*(54%RH)by 9am. 42*(46%RH) by 11am. 45*(35%RH) by 2pm. Tropics: 14.7N 80.8W. May be still around and active 15 days from now!????

Tomorrow at 7am. We are at middle-bottom.

The first 8 days of November are averaging 54degs. Making it 49degs., or -2.0. GFS now has 11 straight 60-Degree Days---Nov. 05 to Nov.15. Keeps getting better! Prepare to be bored barring a visit by a Greek Letter. 500mb Heights swing 600m in 6 days, Nov. 02 to Nov. 08---near records at both ends. Theoretical High T next Sunday is 80*+! Tampa, FL does it again. 31st. consecutive month w/o a BN one. 50*(60%RH) at 6am(really 5am.) 51* at 7am. 53*(64%RH) by 9pm. 55* at 10am. 55*(75%RH) by Noon, with drizzle. 55*(95%RH) by 6pm.

Well, the GFS has the period Nov. 05-12, 8 days, all in the 60's. The mean for the period is 58*, or +9. Given this is the GFS---the anomaly is probably going to be closer to +3, from this vantage point. Is the above going to be worth the wait?: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020103112&fh=276

The last day of October will average 43degs. Making it 41degs. Month to date is 58.5[1.4]. October should end at 57.9[+1.0]. 36*(76%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 40* by 10am. 41* at 11am. 43*(64%) at Noon, Maybe 4 more 30 Degree mornings before the AN onslaught starts. 5250m 500mb Height predicted for Nov.02----near the record for date? Skips by too fast W to E to allow a really low T.

The last 2 days of October are averaging 43degs. Making it 41degs., or -12.0. GFS has 7 straight 60's starting about Nov. 04. Now the 12Z GFS is back to a real bore fest of 10 straight 60's and no precipitation. Month to date is 59.1[+1.9]. October should end at 57.9[+1.0]. 44*(94%RH) here at 6am. 41*(91%RH) by 8am, rain. 40*(93%RH) at 9am. 39* by 11am. Back to 40* by Noon. 43*(73%RH) by 4pm.

Not sure if anyone noted the 8th Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy tonight. My lights had been out here in Coney Island for two hours already by this time (10:15pm)with 64 hours to go. I am in a high rise so I had no water to boot and was getting a lot exercise on my staircases.

GFS still going with 10 straight 60-Degree Days, some of them in the 70's, starting November 05. JMA continues November disaster till the near the end of that month , so mid-November might not be the finish of the 60's. Yet another TS might be here to interrupt the AN by the 13th. Today just a disgusting rain with temps. in the low 50's all the way. Now 53*(96%RH) at 5:30pm. Finally got below 50......49*(95% RH) by 8pm.

The last 3 days of October are averaging 47degs. Making it 44degs., or about -9.0. There may be 3 to 6 daily low readings in the 30's prior to these being neutralized by a string of 60 degree highs, Nov. 05-12. Month to date is 59.4[+2.0]. October should end near 58.0[+1.1]. 57*(82%RH) here at 6am, street wet. Zeta remnants: About 2.0"-2.3" for the three main models. Low T's the next 7 days are EURO 31*, CMC 31*, GFS 35*. Tropics: 34.7N 86.3W-weakening in Alabama

That GFS just keeps getting warmer for the Nov. 05-13 period. It seeks to set the Time Clock back a full month or more as 70's are showing up now to go along with the 60's. The 9 day uncorrected average is 59*, or +10. Hopefully the correction factor at this range is -8. GFS T's always S_CK. The outlook for the month of November is a horror show for North America in general. Our saving grace here, is that we are in the area of lowest confidence for the Red/Yellow +++Codes that are everywhere. btw: The SREF is at about 2.1", and has a T of Snow Friday from 8am-Noon. 34* by Saturday AM, hitting freezing appears to have about a 5% chance.

DOW still has 8,000 points to drop (to get to the March/April CoronaVirus crisis low of 18,500). I expect a drop to 10,000 this time as Federal Reserve Monetary Diarrhea fails. Creating another 3 Trillion, (probably 8 Trillion will be required by next spring) will put the National Debt into the 1.6 to 2.0 times the size of the economy range. This will doom the present and there will be no future in the way we dreamed it. Before you even heard the term CoronaVirus the Stock Market was already two to three times overvalued with a 'strong economy.' The whole market valuation is currently 1.8X times that of the economy. The average value here is 0.85X, in other words, smaller than the whole economy. A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic.

The last 4 days of October are averaging 51degs. Making this 48degs., or about -5.0. Month to date is 59.5[+2.0]. October should end at 58.0[+1.1]. All models have 2.0" to 2.3" for the Zeta remnants. There are multiple days with lows in 30's into November. Lowest is the CMC at 27*, EURO at 30*, GFS at 37*. A warmup should be expected Nov.05-13. Tropics: 25.1N 91.5W headed for NOLa this evening. 58.7N 22.7W- to North Sea. 56*(80%RH) here at 6am, street wet. 55*(81%RH) at 7am. 54*(86%RH) at 7:30am. 58*(94%RH) by 11am. 56*(95%RH) at Noon. 55*(97%RH) at 1pm. 58*(90%RH) again bet. 4pm-6pm.

GFS has 12 60-Degree Days out of the next 16 days, and no precipitation for the first 10 days of November. Gonna bea bore if this is correct. Typical 500mb Heights during first 12 days of November would be 5680m to 5640m, and for 850mb T's +5C to +3C. Starting November 3, these seem to be exceeded regularly.

The last 5 days of October are averaging 53degs. Making it 50degs., or about -3.0. Month to date is: 59.7[+2.0] October should end at 58.2[+1.3]. Upcoming Rain/BN T potentials: EURO 2.3"/31*, GFS 1.2"/37*, GEM 3.1"/27*!. Tropics: 21.1N 88.6W-leaving Yucatan. 56.5N 25.5W 58*(97%RH) here at 6am, cloudy. 55*(85%RH) by 10am. 61* by 4pm. 58* at 9pm.

The last 6 days of October are averaging 53degs. Making it 49degs., or about -3.0. Month to date is: 59.9[+2.1]. October should end near 57.8degs., or about +1.0. 53*(93%RH) here at 6am, streets wet, foggy look, about 1mile. 59*(95%RH) by Noon. EURO/GFS have about 2" through next Monday. GEM has 3" and some sub-freezing lows here to end month. btw: In two short runs of the GFS, it has gone from 10 straight days in the 60's (as I noted late yesterday) to start November, to only 3. Tropics: 18.6N 84.3W., 56.2N 38.5W--stretched out--headed for Europe.