CIK62

63* in NYC (2pm)is even 5 degrees beyond what the Wack-A-Do GFS had slated for today. If it makes you feel better, I have just 60* as of 2:30pm. [Made it to 61* by 4pm].

I am not putting much faith into those 95% effectiveness quotes because all the short term testing results were purely statistical. NO ONE was actually exposed to a high load active nCV19 atmosphere and/or surface. No. Just two groups of equal size (40,000 each?) were given the subject vaccine or a placebo---w/o being told who got what, so that their behavior would not be influenced. Unfortunately on that score, those who got the vaccine had low grade fever, cough, aches and lethargy for a day and would know they got the real thing. At any rate, each group was told to keep wearing a mask, wash their hands and socially distance. After several months of going about their lives as they were before testing began-----it turned out that for every 10-15 placebo group subjects who at some point tested positive-----only 1 subject from the vaccinated group did. Thus the 95% or so number arises. All they really had to do to conclusively proof the vaccine really is effective, was to have had a third group that was actually exposed to the live virus------Here breathe deeply from the air in this bag!, Now touch this contaminated surface with your hands and then lick one finger, stick another finger in your nose and rub your eyes with a third one!! The eyes have been identified as a transmission venue. Now the two vaccinated groups should have similar outcomes. It is easy to see vaccinated people not wearing masks anymore, washing their hands no more often than they did before and not socially distancing. No, the third group I mentioned will exist only outside the laboratory. I did not even talk about safety issues here because there is not data for that. Something that is going to kill 1 in 10,000 subjects over a period of a few years can not be exposed in a test of a few thousand people lasting for a few months. All we know is that it can not be used in a Capital Punishment Execution----it works too slowly!!!

The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.[47/56]. Making it 47degs., or +3.0. Month to date is 53.1[+3.6]. Should be 51.3[3.4] by the 28th. 47*(65%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 46* at 7am. 49* by 9am. 50* at 10am. 54* by Noon. 57* by 1pm. 60* by 2pm.

GEFS Extended has the following to offer: Chance of Snow on Dec. 03, 08, 17-----for a total of 3". High in the 60's on the 13th and to greet Winter itself-----on the 21st. Really the first time I am seeing snow from this output-----it does cover over 30 days, so something better happen. Jan. 18 would mark one full year w/o measurable snow.

The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.[43/54]. Making it 44degs., or just Normal. Month to date is 53.9[+4.2]. Should be about 50.8[+2.8] by the 27th. The GEFS Extended is still a vast winter time weather wasteland. We get near the current lows again only near the 29th., 07th, and 17th. It runs into the start of winter. Absolutely no Snow for this 30 Day+ period either, not a T showing. Would make 338 days w/o measurable snow, if correct. 32*(53%RH) here at 6am[low was 31* at 12:30am]. 35* by 8am. 37* by 9am. 40* by 11am. 41* by Noon. 43* at 1pm. 46* at 2pm. 48* at 3pm. 46* by 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.[41/52]. Making it 42degs., or -2.5. Month to date is 55.2[+5.3]. Should be about 50.9[+2.8] by the 26th. 33*(50%RH) here at 6am. 32* at 7am. 33* at 8am---about 75mins. at 32*. Still 33* Noon. 35* by 2pm. My daytime high T peaked at 36* between 3pm-4pm.-----but high was 37* back at midnight. 33* at 8pm.

Cold air is locked out of the lower 48 from Nov. 25---Dec.03+?. We could sneak in a BN day near the Nov. 29 or 30th. Nov. 20-23 looks like a solid +5 period. Nov. 24-30, near Normal but a +Bias. Around the 28th, 29th some record high T's should occur in the Dakotas and Minnesota----+30 indicated. GEFS has a 24-hour stretch of 60+ on, or just after Thanksgiving. Really looks like Week 3 of December before any sustained BN can set up.

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.[44/55]. Making it 45degs., or just Normal. Month to date is 55.9[+5.9]. Should be 52.3[+3.9] by the 25th. Tropics: 13.7N 84.3W---hitting Nicaragua. 44*(46%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 46* at 7am. 47* by 8am. 49* by 11am. 50* at Noon. 45* by 3pm. 43* by 6pm. 39* by 10pm.

As cold as it Won't Be this Tues/Wed/Thurs----the GEFS Extended warns we won't even see these modicum T's again for exactly 1 MONTH!

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.[43/56]. Making it 45degs., or just Normal. Month to date is 56.3[+6.2]. Should be about 52.4[+4.0] by the 24th. Warmest November(11/2015) ever was at +6.7 at the half way point and ended with +5.1---so the remainder of the month better come in below +4.1, or it's another hottest month ever. However, all 5-Day ENS. periods centered on Nov. 21 onward into December, are slated to be AN, so could be close call. Tropics: 13.6N 81.2W----about to hit Honduras/Nicaragua. 48*(52%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-breezy. 49* by 10am. 51* by Noon. 54* by 3pm. 49* by 9pm.

Coney Island getting wiped out at 8:45pm---8:50pm. T crashed during this period from 63 to 54.

Our new winter season hobby-----following Squall Lines. Forget the snow squalls. NW NJ stay safe right now.

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.[41/53]. Making it 42degs., or -4.0. Month to date is 56.3[+6.3]. Should be about 51.1[+2.6] by the 23rd. Tropics: 13.1N 77.5W. 45*(60%RH) here at 6am-overcast. 46* at 6:30am. 50*(65%RH) by 8am. 51* at 8:30am. 52* at 9am. 53* at 9:30am. 54* at 10am. 55* at 10:30am. Climbed slowly and steadily toward a 59* by 5pm. 60*(87%RH) at 6pm 61* at 7pm. 63* at 8pm. 51* at 9pm-----Squall line reached here at 8:45pm.

Another vertical view. We are at the Bottom/Center. Rapid wind speed drop off just to the (left)west of us, and constant out over the water to the east. https://proa.accuweather.com/pro/model-grads-pro.asp?mt=06&mod=gfs&gv0=D&hr=42&gs=crosssect&mv8=scheme:wind&map=conus&mv5=1000&mv6=300&mv7=40.61,-75,40.6,-73&uid=4061-75004060-7300wind

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.[42/53]. Making it 41degs., or -5.0. Month to date is 57.4[+6.9]. Should be about 51.1[+2.4] by the 23rd. Tropics: 13.5N 75.8W---not another one! 47*(70%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 46*(72%RH) at 7am. 52* by 2pm. 48* by 11pm.

The EURO Control has our next 'Flirts with 70 Degrees' during first week of December. Around Christmas it has the Hudson Bay region of Canada at +40!. Aren't you glad that this is our source of 'Arctic Air'.

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.[41/51]. Making it 41degs., or -6.0. Month to date is 58.1[+7.5]. Should be about 51.3[+2.1] by the 21st. 50*(96%RH) here at 6am-clouds,drizzle. Tropics: 33.9N 76.0W, ill defined. 32.0N 28.7W---just a little twerp.

The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.[42/53]. Making 44degs., or about -3.0. Month to date is 58.2[+7.5]. Should be 54.3[+2.7] by the 20th. Still an inch of rain to fall by Tuesday. 64*(99%RH ) here at 6am, FOG<0.5, rain. 65* at 6:30am. 66*(99%RH), Fog mostly gone-just dark clouds at 8am. BIG T Drop to 59* by 8:30am. 57*(88%RH) at 9am. 56*(93&RH) at 10am. 55*(80%RH) by Noon. 50* by. 4pm. 48* by 5pm. Tropics: 29.3N 83.3W---crossing upper west side of Fl. coastline. 31.3N 30.5W

The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.[48/58]. Making it 48degs., or just about Normal. Month to date is 57.2[+6.3]. Should be about 53.1[+4.0] by the 19th. Rain threats on all models seem to have collapsed in half thru. Mon. PM: EURO 1.3", GFS 1.1", CMC 0.9". More emphasis on some BN T's----but GFS still has 7 60-Degree Days in the next 15. Tropics: 25.0N 84.2W---running N well off west side of Fl. Hits Panhandle Saturday? 29.5N 34.8W---nowhere man. 63*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 65* by 9am. 68* by Noon. 63* by 3pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.[53/62]. Making it 53degs., or about +6.0. Month to date is 56.1[+5.1]. Should be near 54.7[+5.7] by the 18th. We will be moving at a record pace. Rest of November looks like a train wreck. Just a few 36-hour frontal passage cool downs. You can roast the Holiday turkey outside. Total rain by next Monday PM: GFS 1.7", EURO 2.4", CMC 3.2". Tropics: 22.9N 85.5W-just nw of Cuba's western end. 29.1N 38.W---record breaker for total # of storms. 58*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 60*(82%RH) by 9am. 65*(76%RH) by 11am. 66* by 1pm. 68* by 2pm, cumulus clouds dotting sky. 69* at 2:15pm. 70* at 2:30pm., made it. 71*(72%RH) at 3pm. 72* at 3:15pm. 69* at 4pm. 65* at 5pm. 63* by 11pm.

Trump has to blame himself because he told his followers not to use mail-in voting! Remember when his newly appointed Postmaster General went right to it-----destroying the ability of his new charge to handle the election volume. The late ballots in Philadelphia were segregated and never even used! So they can't be subtracted!! 1 out 300 mail-ins only had a vote for President, either T or B!!! I always left positions empty when I even bothered to vote at all. Loudest Vote Ever: THEY HELD AN ELECTION AND NOBODY SHOWED UP OR VOTED BY MAIL. Who says that Republicans won't be found to have cheated too? Only Democrats cheat? What! Trump has hidden his tax returns for four years due to an alleged audit. Their methods are more subtle-----intimidate potential voters from ever voting to begin with. Harder to proof, but effective.

The CFS does not have even a single week anywhere around us with BN 500mb Heights showing---from now till it ends in four months. We are gonna see an 80-Degree Day somewhere during this stretch is my bet. Heat Begets Heat---Begets Heat. Meanwhile the WeatherBell Pioneer model has a BN, or at least Normal winter predicted. It was completely wrong last year.

The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.[54/65]. Making it 55degs., or +7.0. Total rain through next Monday PM: GFS 2.0", EURO 2.5", CMC 3.0" Possible BN days in the next 16 days:, the 14, 18, 22. Separated and iffy. 57*(63%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60*(60%RH) by 9am. 65*(57%RH) by Noon. 68* at 1pm. 70* at 1:30pm, but 69* at 2pm. 68* at 2:30pm and seems like fog wants to move in. 67* at 3pm. 66* at 4pm 64* at 4:30pm Tropics: 24.8N 82.1W, to the westside of Florida Keys.

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.[55/66] Making it 56degs., or +7.0. GFS has 5 straight 70's incoming, before some rain and a return to Normal T's. Friday---well, Less AN. Lol. It should be about +5.5 or better---by the 16th., using the +7.0 for the next 8 days. Total rainfall from two events through next Monday, PM shows CMC as laggard with under 2", EURO a little more than that----but the GFS just nearly doubled its prediction and is at 5.3" now! 59*(57%RH) here at 6am. 66*(53%RH) by Noon. 67* at 1pm, and I am lagging all stations for some reason, though JFK went backwards the last hour. 69* by 2pm. 70* by 2:15pm. 71* by 2:30pm. 72* by 3pm. 73* by 3:15pm. 64* by 6pm. Tropics: 21.1N 79.2W---just south of central Cuba.

In reference to my post on the November 1975 warm spell above----an historical note: I just reminded myself that the front that ended it, had spawned a storm on the Great Lakes that somehow sank the tanker "Edmund Fitzgerald".