CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/44). Making it 34degs , or -3.0. Month to date is 40.3[-0.5]. Should be 37.5[-1.6] by the 19th. Snowstorm outlook on the 17th: EURO 9", GFS 8", CMC 5". Storm looks like it is running to catch the bus. Fast mover. 42*(70%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 50* by Noon. 51* at 1pm. 55* at 3pm. Held at 54* till 53* at 7pm.

Now the GFS has its own nervous breakdown at 19" and gets a private room next to the EURO at 17". I hope therapies do not work before the 18th. Lol.

The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(39/51). Making it 40degs., or about +3.0. Month to date is -0.7[40.3]. Should be about 40.1[+1.0] by the 18th. GFS has a Trace of snow.*** CMC has none. EURO suffers a nervous breakdown on the 17th. with 17"!!!........CAUTION: The EPS is only 50/50 on Any Snow at this timeframe. ***That was the 0Z, the 06Z is 9"-----sorry this is for the 23rd, but we will take it anyway. Check out the 850mb. setups that are in color and we quickly see that only the EURO is positioned far enough east for snow. Since it stays cold after system passage on EURO, TeleC's must be different too. As an aside, the GEFS Extended still shows a sub-zero NYE. In fact it shows the lowest T here since 1943. 39* (75%RH) at 6am. (Low was 36* at 1am). 42* by 9am. 44* by 10am.

Nice to see that snow for 90mins. Only CMC has (7") here on the 17th, everything else seems zippo throughout their durations. This includes the ensembles. Everybody In the Pool!(outdoors)

Nice snow shower here (Coney Island) at 12:15pm, T 37*. 36* at 12:20pm. 35* at 12:30pm, could be measurable if it continues. Wind is from south. 34* at 12:45pm and snow shower continues. 35* by 3pm, snow ended about 2:15pm, no white anywhere.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(38/47). Making it 38degs., or +1.0. GFS has aTrace of snow today and that is it. CMC, EURO have action around mid-month. GFS heads for 70* near Christmas. GEFS: The only 5-Day period that is even near Normal is centered on the 18th. 35*(65%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast. (It was 33* near midnight). 36* at 9am. 38* by Noon.

Well the eruption was in Mexico and immediately went into the upper atmosphere and caused odd blue skies and sunsets. In addition, the number of nuclei (particulate matter) for snowflakes to coalesce on of course increased greatly. Surely, a favorable pattern was in place prior to this enhancement. The T actually remained below 32* for an unnaturally long period of time. The NWS issued a Blizzard Warning for even NYC at 4am that morning. The next day was sunny and windy with blowing snow at ground level. T was 34* on the 7th.

Not too early to start singing this one: From 1965, with a blurry video to go with it (on the Brooklyn Heights Promenade), from what can be made out in the background. The ROYALETTES version of its "It's Gonna Take A Miracle" .....to make me feel any cold, cause there's no winter I've been told) https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=its+gonna+take+a+miracle%2c+1965&view=detail&mid=3BD932887340011ABBBE3BD932887340011ABBBE&FORM=VIRE0&ru=%2fsearch%3fq%3dits%2bgonna%2btake%2ba%2bmiracle%2C%2b1965%26form%3dQBLH%26sp%3d-1%26pq%3dits%2bgonna%2btake%2ba%2bmiracle%2C%2b1965%26sc%3d0-30%26qs%3dn%26sk%3d%26cvid%3d6957573B61B2405FA29412F1DFA384F4

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(37/47). Making it 37degs., or about -1.0. December should be near Normal by the 16th. EURO, GFS have a Trace of snow tomorrow, CMC does not. At any rate, there may be about 4 50's incoming, Thurs. onward. As of today's runs, Albany could have 2' on ground by Christmas, while we are left out. 32*(60%RH) here at 6am, flurries? 31* at 7am, dark clouds. 30* at 8am. 34* at 1pm. 37* at 3pm.

For amusement purposes only: Using the GEFS Extended------- the most extreme members for the Low T's show a first stab at the teen's on Dec. 15, the single digits on Dec. 23, and a sub-zero attempt on New Years Eve. These are not predictions, just the most extreme possibilities. Unfortunately you have to add 40-60 degrees to these to obtain the most extreme High T possible on the same dates. LOL

If you are relying on the EURO for this twerp of a snow event, remember the LR EURO feels that the winter is Over for the entire US. It is AN through the whole winter and unhindered by any Arctic intrusions, which of course it would not indicate in this type of forecast anyway. Probably months with 20-25 Normal to AN number of days and the remainder accidental cold days.

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(36/47). Making it 37degs., or about -1.0. EURO has a Trace of snow on the 10th. Other models are zippo all the way. 32*(64%RH) here at 6am. 36* by 10am. 38* by Noon.. 42* by 3pm. 37* by 8pm.

Among the highlights or LOW lights that month in NYC were: 10th. 6 17, 11th. 5 17, 12th. 6 18, 17th 0 19, 18th. 0 15, 22nd. 8 18, 27th 9 25. The April 06 Blizzard was probably triggered by the EL CHICON Volcanic Eruption at the end of March.

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs. (37/47). Making it 37degs., or about -1.0. Unfortunately, it shows 9 50-Degree Days in the next 16, threatening to make December a hoax wintertime month. GFS Extended is a horror show. CFS is AN everywhere in the US for the next 9 months, let alone this one. Scary part was when I realized the T scale was in C! eke! Outside of atmospheric accidents----it is Over. Laugh now, Die later. This summer is part of the 11 year cycle curse 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010,....2021. 38*(60%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 37* at 7am. 36* at 10am. 40* at 3pm.

For this time next week the EURO raised heights by 200m between last night's output and this morning's. I think the GFS had a chance of snow next Sunday at this time last week, ie 14 days out. Bleak snow outlook except for miracles, these next two weeks. I always like to see a 3+day run of sub-32 Highs predicted---before I believe in significant snow chances----since a short-wave often meanders by in a period that is 72+ hours long. Ideas where the system will bring in the cold with it, or generate its own cold air are too speculative. Well so is CADamming. ****** I do remember that early season snowstorm. Due to the Stillwell Ave. Subway Terminal renewal project at the time, I was forced to get off the Brighton Line at Sheepshead Bay Road and wait for the B-36 bus to complete the run to CI. Long wait with blowing snow. I believe this was in the morning as I was returning from a dental appointment---not from work.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/44). Making it 35degs., or about -3.0. The three main models are all snowless for their durations. 47*(99%RH) here at 6am, rain. 44* by 8am. 42* by 9am. 46* by 2pm with clearing skies. 48* by 3pm. 49* at 3:15pm. 46* at 4pm. 45* at 5pm. 41* by 8pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(36/45). Making it 36degs., or about -3.0, no change from yesterday. Only EURO has even a Trace of snow(5th )&(10th.). GEFS Control Member has a Trace there too-----then goes silent for 30 days! btw: Tampa's 32 month run of AN T's really is in some jeopardy, as I predicted. The rest of December there must already beat +1.2, to keep the streak alive. 47*(66%RH) at 6am. 50* by 11:30am, back to 47* by 3pm with drizzle.

GFS:(OP) Dec. 10-17 is averaging +9, that is in degrees boys----not inches! It will probably be just +3 in reality, Really! I routinely cut the OP by 5 degrees for the first 8 day average. More beyond that, less for shorter periods of course. PROBABILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS based on the current 30-Year-Normal. This is Not the prediction for any particular winter. For NYC we will probably be working up or down from a raw chance of about 20%. Chicago starts at 50/50. Minneapolis starts at 80% etc.:

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(36/45). Making it 36degs., or about -3.0. GFS with some snow on the 13th. 36*(65%RH) here at 6am. 44* by Noon. 46* by 12:30pm. 49* by 3pm. 48* by 8pm.

Not gonna be by accident you say? Look at the morning of Dec. 15. GFS just went from 7degrees BN to a whopping 27 degrees AN in a single run.

Info mostly from WeatherBell charts. Where is your disagreement? UC snow? I want some snow but no actionable or bettable events are out there. The only likely weather worthy event I see now, is Tampa's 32 month stretch w/o a BN one may end. Snowstorms will be by accident this winter, I believe. Meanwhile our last 'measureable' snow was Jan.18. What is your guess for a measurable event?

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(38/45). Making it 37degs., or -3.0. There is No Snow on the 3 primary models except for a Trace near the 7th. Mid-month deal is back to rain in the 60's. 38*(60%RH) here at 6am. 43* by Noon.

Question: Which model can change rain and T's in 50's, into 10" of snow and T's in the 20's----within 1 run. (For the 13th./14th. which has switched again) Why it is the "GFS---I Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Forecast Was In", model. Bring it on!

You better figure out a way to vaccinate the US Dollar, and quickly. It is making a new 1 Year low and support is collapsing. It will take the Stock Market with it and bring on hyper-inflation. Remember the deficit is now 3T/year. It took from 1780-1992 to reach 3T National Debt. Now it takes the deficit just a year to add that much more to the total debt. It can never be repaid with real money. My Motto is: I will be wrong until I'm right----and then I will really be right----and will scare even myself!

EURO is 0.3" snow and the GFS,CMC are 0.0" for the next 10 days. GFS is blank till the 16th. GFS has had a Trace or better on all these dates at one time or another......Dec. 02,05,07,10,13 now the 16th. This is shotgun forecasting. When you start seeing a period with reliable consecutive sub-freezing High T's----then something may happen. The GEFS doesn't even have a single BN 5-Day period showing. I do think Tampa, Florida's feat of 32 straight months w/o a BN one, could end. All 5-Day periods are BN in Florida. Coney Island Polar Bear Club moving to Florida to demonstrate their superior abilities: LOL