CIK62

A week ago I mentioned the new strain of Covid-19 found in Wales and Great Britain. It was quiet till today. Now all of Europe must isolate in place as this strain is making 170 people sick for every 100 with the existing strains. It supposedly is not more deadly. Even if correct, by replacing every 100 current hospitalized patients with 170, care per person will drop and more will die with time. Experts claim the vaccine will still work on this strain, but I think that is a ruse to avoid panic. I do not believe it will work on the existing strains! How long does the vaccine protect you is unknown-if it does work. Here is the thing with this RNA virus. It checks every copy it makes of itself and can correct almost all errors, unlike other coronaviruses. This is like sending digital data over a noisy channel, but mathematically being able to reclaim a lot of the loss. So this results in very few mutations------but expect the ones that leak through to be doozies.

GFS contains enough liquid for 55" inches of snow over the next 16 days-------but alas shows just a paltry 3". Looks like a Cutter City Festival.

The next 8 days are averaging 34degs.(28/40). Making it 29degs., or -6.0. Month to date is 39.2(-0.1). Should be about 36.2(-1.8) by the 28th. 34*(58%RH) here at 6am. Low was 32*. 40* by 4pm. Was 41* for many hours, 10pm.

Do not forget it took NOAA two years to get KWO 35 back on the air. Also, earlier intermod problems with CG frequencies forced KWO35 off the air except for emergency tone alerts. Yes, the graphics are tighter, more detailed and more colorful, but are they more accurate? Like a more detailed road map that even shows potholes------but shows them in the wrong places. Lol.

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(24/39). Making it 27degs., or -8.0. Month to date is missing. Calculated is +0.9. Should be -1.8 by the 27th. All models have T near 60* for Christmas in the midst of otherwise decent lows. Looks wacky. Non gusts winds of 25-35mph. are higher than in our recent snow event. GEFS Extended Control has major snow event slated for Jan. 07th. 23*(67%RH) here at 6am. 32* by 11:15am. 34* by 1pm. 35* at 2pm. 34* at 3pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(24/38). Making it 26degs., or -10degs. Month to date is missing. Calculated to date is +1.4. Should be -2.3 by the 26th. 27*(69%RH) here at 6am, partial thin overcast. 31* by Noon. 32* by 12:30pm. Oddly enough, only Christmas and New Years Day look warm over the next 15 days. GEFS T's look OK till the 5-Day period centered on Jan. 10th. CFS hopefully takes over for Feb./Mar. with the super cold it is showing. SD thinks if the La Nina kicks the bucket more rapidly, this could happen.

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(21/36). Making it 24degs., or -11. Month to date is Missing. Total Snow as of midnight in Central Park was 6.5". 26*(95%RH) here at 6am. This is down from 33* at 1am. 25* at 7am. 30* by Noon. 32* by 1pm. 33* at 2pm. The only warm weather in the next 15 days is again near Chirstmas, with 2" of rain, which Santa will turn to snow......... Ho Ho Ho! Recent runs.....54,50,38,59 and now again 59degs. But would you settle for a white NYE? EURO's interpretation for the NAO/PNA have them crossing the Nuetral Zone during the last week of the month. Good sign for mischief to happen.

Playing the Slot Machines at 9pm. m.

Cross section at 1am Thurs. 45mph gusts directly out of the east/northeast and from over 50 degree waters. Wonder if snow will be able to make it to the surface at this time: courtesy of AccuWeather. I am at bottom center.

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34). Making it 24degs., or -11degs. Month to date is 42.3[+2.4]. Should be 36.0[-2.2] by the 24th. Storm Total Forecast: EURO 16", GFS 14", CMC 12", NAM 13". GFS had type issues on the Cobb Method. GFS is back to 64* on Christmas. Has been varying by 30+ degrees for days. 28* here at 4:30am. 29* (45%RH)(1030.0mb) here at 6am, m. clear. 31*(48%RH)(1028.8mb)at 9am, overcast. 33*(50%RH)(1026.3mb) at Noon. 32*(70%RH)(1023.5mb) at 3pm, snowing. 29*(99%RH)(1019.9mb)moderate, snow, gusts, cars,sidewalks, Surf Ave. are white. TODAY IS THE 60TH ANNIVERSARY [10:30AM] OF THE MID-AIR COLLISION OVER NYC THAT KILLED 134. 11 YEAR OLD STEPHEN BALTZ WAS A TEMPORARY SOLE SURVIVOR. THE SNOW YOU SEE IN THE PHOTOS IS FROM STORM #20 ON THE LIST. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/1960-new-york-city-plane-crash-back-gallery-1.1549629

The nascent Vaccine is already about to be challenged by latest strain just found in Wales, GB etc. If it fails........................... Could set world back a year and will have wasted 100's of Billion$. Remember this coronavirus does not let useless mutations continue. It actually checks for errors in the copies it is making-----just like information engineers use mathematical checks on digital data sent over noisy channels. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/new-covid-strain-uk-what-are-the-symptoms-of-the-mutated-form-of-the-virus-and-will-the-vaccine-still-work/ar-BB1bWosW

06Z Runs: using Cobb Method for NYC GFS 26" NAM 13", but with mixed precipitation sneaking in. Three days ago the GFS hit 33".

I understand how these trials were conducted and how results were obtained. Did you ask yourself why a third group who actually was exposed (after 6-weeks on the vaccine regiment) to an especially efficacious viral load by being asked to breath this>>> CoVID19-laden-AIR---------was not present? There must be some healthy brave souls out there willing to make $1,000 bucks-----the drug companies are willing to make 100's of Billion$) So now touch this contaminated surface dear fellows and gals and then put your hands near your mouth, up your nose and rub your eyes? The test would be over in three weeks after that and we would know if the vaccines work. Either way we do not know about long term safety-----only that the vaccine can not be used in a Capitol Punishment Execution, it kills too slowly. Why is our government helping China to cover up this gross ratio mismatch. We have more cases in one day than China has had in a year!!! Every two days now we lose more people than they did in a whole year. All that with 1/5th the population. Wake Up! We are a laughing stock of the world. Realize, that in 10 months of exposure 90% of the US population has not fallen ill that we know of-----and they didn't take a vaccine!!! That is almost as good as the subjects that took a test shot. It must be the Masks, and Social Distancing. You think our spy satellites do not know what is happening in China? Look, I am not here to argue. Give me some answers that make sense. If China has a workable vaccine make them share it.

NAM is wishy washy with the snow as it alternates Snow/Rain and ends up as just 6". (Cobb Method) GFS is all Snow, but gives only 8" for several runs. (Cobb Method)[it had a 33" run 2 days ago] The CMC and EURO are about 15"(Kuchera)

EXPLAIN: China has just 87,000 cases and 4,600 dead in 1 years time. If they were the US they would now have 75,000,000 cases and about 1,800,000 dead; The epidemic started there, they have no vaccinated population to speak of, but we know they all wear masks and tracking must work there also. Our vaccine trials did not give the virus directly to anyone. Remember all 44,000 subjects continued doing every thing the same with masks and social distancing. I conclude the vaccine did not do anything. The vaccinated group fared no better than a random group of Chineese people of the same size. It was the MASKS mostly that protected them in the study. But Mask wearing is going to crash and the virus will explode, except for the benefits of summer solar radiation, heat and higher RH. Where is the flaw in this argument?

NWS still has no Watch for NYC. Only in NW NJ and inland Monmouth County. Their own probability of >8" here is 50%. Guess next move is Warning for current Watch areas, and a Watch for us after morning runs are examined?

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(28/37). Making it 27degs., or -9.0. Month to date (still missing). +40/13 = +3.1 to date. Should be about -32/21 = -1.5 by the 22nd. Gotta love that GFS for Christmas: 58,38,42,57,38----last five runs, and last week it was in the 60's. Now with Christmas back at 38* it goes ahead and adds 20 degrees to the 27,28,29,30. Winter Storm Summary(today + Wed./Thurs.) CMC 0" +17" EURO 1" + 16" GFS 0" +8". Non gust winds still 20-25mph. NWS going with GFS and does not have even have a Watch for the City! 18" marker ends near City and goes no further east. 45*(57%RH) here at 6am. 38* by 4pm.

Talking about Covid staffing at NWS Offices----but how about the NYC Sanitation Dept. manpower situation? Most important aspect of battling 1"/hour snow events is placement of manpower/equipment before start of the snow. Mayor Lindsay would tell you that if he were alive. Models have been double digit and pretty steady since last Thursday, I would say. KWO-35 just mentioning some snow w/o any amounts or Watches as of 8am. today(Sun. ). Gotta be a Watch by this PM. Otherwise they know something we don't.

The next 8 days are averaging 34degs.(28/40). Making it 29degs., or -7.0. Month to date ( site still down) Snow Totals summary: EURO 16", GFS 18", CMC 10". Non gust wind speeds still 18-25mph. Monday is a non event except for helping to set up El Gordo. 53*(90%RH) here at 6am. 60* by 1pm.

12Z Cobb Method for NYC is now 33". Anyone believe this???

Snow totals summary: Mon. + Wed./Thurs. EURO 2.5" + 14.0", CMC 0 0" + 17.0", GFS 0.5" + 13.0". Non gust winds still 18-25mph. Cautions......Two fast movers, borderline S/R for City, but 2"+ to work with. Euro is running between 15-35 for a week. GFS still goes to the 60's on Christmas. With snow still on the ground?! Come on man. >>>>>>> The 06Z just lost 30 degrees on the Highs for 25th,26th. !!! Amended: Cobb Method GFS 0Z is all Snow for NYC............. 21" in 19 hours!

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(30/40). Making it 30degs., or -6.0. Month to date (missing, site down?) Snow totals summary: Mon. + Wed./Thurs. EURO 2.5" + 14.0", CMC 0 0" + 17.0", GFS 0.5" + 13.0". Non gust winds still 18-25mph. Cautions......Two fast movers, borderline S/R for City, but 2"+ to work with. Euro is running between 15-35 for a week. GFS still goes to the 60's on Christmas. With snow still on the ground?! Come on man. >>>>>>> The 06Z just lost 30 degrees on the Highs for 25th,26th. !!! 51*(85%RH) here at 6am, cloudy,drizzle. [Low was 49* at midnight] 54* by 9am.

3", but only if timing is perfect. 925mb, 850mb T's drop at last possible moment to perhaps coincide with the precipitation.

Latest estimates from the models: (NYC) CMC 18", EURO 15", GFS 7". CMC and GFS have exchanged amounts since yesterday. Non gust winds range from 18-25mph.

EPS for Christmas Day (#15) has 32*---45* as the most likely T range. There is no indication of snow near that time either.