CIK62

If you like to follow close calls: GFS 18Z 13" Cobb Snow Method is 16", a quick hitter. CMC 12Z 5" EURO 12Z is Zippo, however. Jan. 08-09.

I forgot to mentioned that Tampa, Fl. and probably all of Florida, had their first BN Month after 32 straight months w/o one. Imagine some clown meteorologist had Tweeted (on April Fool's Day 2018, no less) that the next 32 months in Florida will all be AN. lol. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=tbw

December ended at 39.2[+1.7]. The first 8 days of January are averaging 41degs.(36/45). Making it 36degs., or +3.0. Snow dates on various models, runs are 3rd.,9th and 12th. Probably not real as amounts/dates playing musical chairs. The Strat Warming is looking like a Fail as all TeleConnections except the WPO are getting less favorable by mid-month. Jan. 09-17 is averaging 37(32/41), or just 4 degrees better than the above Jan. 01-08---and one of those four degrees is climatological anyway. .........and Oh Yes: Happy Warm Year. 36*(65%RH) here at 6am. 35* at 7am. 41* by 10am. 43* by 2pm. 40* by 10am.

This does not look pretty yet for any of the 48, even by a 5-Day January 13th. midpoint. 12Z GFS itself is averaging 39degs. (35/42), or +6 for the first 16 days of January and getting better----how could it get worse? . Snow on the 13th??? Anyone know why the spread is continuously just 7 degrees between the H/L each run. I thought it was 12 degrees during early January [say 27/39], but it keeps coming up tighter than that. btw: AccuWeather feels the Arctic cold won't come here till very late January, maybe never. First Western Europe then Northeastern Europe and then maybe here. Do we get a washed up PV, finishing up its long playing career here?

The last day of December is averaging 43degs.(39/47), or +10. Month to date is 39.1[+1.5]. December should end at 39.4. The uncorrected (GFS, 0Z) first 15 days of January are averaging 40degs.(36/45), or +7.0. 48*(94%RH) here at 6am----Up from 43* at Midnite. 46* since Noon-2pm. 37* by 11pm.

Find a BN day in this mess (which could have been salvaged from last January)and win a KEWPIE DOLL (with fully visible [but not functional---so don't get excited}sexual organs. Well at least we are getting rid of the 50's. The High+Low can't exceed 66, which eliminates all but 3 days, right off the bat.

The last two days of December are averaging 39degs., (34/39). Making it 38degs., or +5. Month to date is 39.3[+1.4]. December should end near 39.2. The first half of January may end near 39degs. too. The GEFS is +5 to +12 on each of those travelling 5-Day periods. Ugly. The uncorrected GFS is averaging 40degs.(35/44), or +7.0---for the first 15 days of January. The GEFS Extended still insists on no T below 20 till the 18th.----then we spend the rest of the month in the single digits and/or sub-zero environment. As far as snow is concerned, apparently none till the 15th+-----then 2X normal. Stay tuned. 32*(53%RH) here at 6am. Up from 30* at 5am. 35* by 11am. 37* by Noon. 39* by 1pm. 41* by 3pm and held till sunset.

The first two weeks of January on the 12Z GFS are still averaging 41degs.(36/45), or +8. There is no snow showing. *** There is only one day with a Low of 32degs. or greater showing. ***GFS,CMC, and now the EURO are 0" on Jan. 03-04. W/O a helpful SSWE we could resurrect last January's blog listings and not realize the secret. Of course the Polar Vortex last January was concentric and tight over the N.P. This January we could have many blobs of Arctic air floating around. That is the theory at least.

The last 3 days of December areavering 37degs.(33/40). Making it 36degs., or +3.0. Month to date is 39.3[+1.4]. December should end at 39.0[+1.5]. btw: Historical note: Decembers were averaging 35.9 in my 1967 Almanac, so we have added 1.6 degrees even before the May 2021 updates. The first 14 days of January are averaging 41degs.(37/45), or +8.0 uncorrected. Tight range. Only reaches down to at least 32 degrees once! It is Snowless throughout of course, as is the CMC. EURO with 2" on Jan.3-4, Yippie. Finally, the GEFS Extended makes up for this during the last 11 days of the month with all sub-zero days on at least some members. Down to a record smashing -17. SSWE wins the day, I suppose. 39*(50%RH) here at 6am. (High was 43* at Midnite) 38* at 7am. 37* by 10am. Was 38-39 during PM. 32* by 11pm.

The last 4 days of December are averaging 38degs.(32/43). Making it 36degs., or +2.0. Month to date is 39.2[+1.2]. December should end near 38.7degs. No snow on any model. CMC is a T on Jan 03. GFS still with 8 50-Degree Days incoming, during the next 16 days. Only tomorrow of the next 16 days is BN. GEFS Extended Control has only a T of Snow for the next 30 days. The mean is given at 8" and is to be expected. Some members have record sub-zero lows during last 10 days of January----but this has been slipping forward continuously for weeks. Given a chance it would show a low of 40 for July Fourth. SE Ridge Pitches Near Perfect Shutout: ?????? Goes the Distance----90 Days! LOL 43*(84%RH) here at 6am. Low was 36* at Midnite. 47* by Noon. 49* by 2pm. 50* at 2:30pm. 51* at 3pm. 52* was High at 3:30pm.

What a way to run a January. Is this the result of a failed (for us) SSWE, or just a heatwave before winter gets going? Last January was +10.3 after the first 12 days and ended up as +6.5 for reference.

The last 5 days of December are averaging 37degs.(31/43). Making it 34degs., or +1.0. Month to date is 39.6[+1.4]. December should end near 38.7(+1.0). 25*(64%RH) here at 6am. 30* by 11am. 36* by 1pm. 38* at 2pm. 40* at 3pm. New Year's Day period has about 4" of rain? GFS just lowered this to 1"+, in agreement with the other models. It also has 8! 50-Degree Days to bury chances of a BN January baring this great SSWE that might be a spilt on the wrong side of the N.P. for us anyway. Uncorrected for the first 12 days of January, the GFS is averaging 44degs.(37/51), or +11. Toward end of period s.e. Canada looks to be +40 to +50. Finally, the latest CFSv2 burns the whole North American Continent in January, somewhat of a flip.

GFS getting hotter all the time. It has lost all snow and has 6 50's incoming over the next 16 days. Just eyeing this 16 day array I would say its a +10. I think today was as cold as it will be for a long time. Some SSWE! OK The burning truth is that Jan.01-11, eleven days is: 44(37/51) +11. My LaCrosse Transporter has malfunctioned and I have been deposited back in Jan. 2020 @+6.5. JB and SD still say it will be cold and stormy again soon.

The last 6 days of December are averaging 34degs.(24/44). Making it 30degs., or -3.0. Month to date is 40.0[+1.7]. December should end near 38.9[+0.8]. 24*(55%RH) here at 6am. Was 29* at Midnite. Back to 29* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. 33* by 3pm. 27* by 9pm. 0Z GFS still had Jan.04-05 for 13" this time---but 06Z is already a miss. NYDay looking awfully like Christmas fiasco.

18Z GFS for Jan. 05 11" with minimal T structure. Wonder how long this will hold up.

The last 7 days of December are averaging 39degs.(32/46). Making it 35degs., or (+1.0). Month to date is 39.8(+1.3). December should end between 38.7---39.6. Uncorrected(GFS), for the first 10 days of January looks horrible, at an average of 41(35/47), or +8.0. All models are snowless. 53*(98%RH) here at 6am, down from 58* at 3am. 52* by Noon. 49* by 2pm. 47* at 2:30pm. 45* at 3pm. 42* at 4pm 37* by 6pm. 35* by 8pm. 33* by 9pm.

Looks like NYC's turn at some heavy rain within the hour:

Creeping up the coast:

Strong winds lasting during 4pm today to 9am tomorrow. Breezy outside this range. Dangerous winds are during 2am tonight to 7am. tomorrow morning------that is Santa huffing and puffing because the old boy has gained so much weight over the year. Good luck and tie down or take in loose objects now! Check roof antennas too.

The last 8 days of the month are averaging 40degs.(32/47). Making it 35degs., or +2.0. Month to date is 39.3[+0.7]. December should end between (38.2---39.5). Models are snow less, but total rain through New Years Day is 5". Measuring rain in inches during the winter doesn't sound nice. The GEFS Extended which has been reading Houdini's Magic Disappearing Acts, has made the snow reappear instead for the Jan.6/7 (10"+) and again during Jan. 14-17(10"+). Practice makes perfect so I am trying it now.....................................................................................................................................................gone m i 48* (90%RH) here at 6am. 50* at 7am. T rising steadily since 43* at Midnight. 52* by 10am. 53* by 10:30am. 54*, drizzle by 2pm. 55* at 3pm. back to 53* at 4pm.

Well the Federal Deficit (52 straight years of GAPP Deficits) for the calendar year will be 5 Trillion now, with this extra ketchup, mustard, tobasco sauce, ranch dressings.................................ad infinitum. So we all get 1,200 + 2,000 or $3,200 but the Feds put each American on the chopping block for another $15,384, as our share of the new total National Debt when every other deficit spending item is included as it normally would have been anyway. The annual deficit was 1.1T before any of us even heard of the Corona Virus. Watch the Dollar Index folks and not the engorged stock market's over stretched manly shaft, that is about to explode into space. When that dollar index gets near 70 (currently 90) our DOLLAR WILL BE REPUDIATED and we will be forced to live Below Our Means!

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(29/44). Making it 32degs., or -2.0. Month to date is 39.3[+0.5]. Should be 37.3[-0.1] by the 31st. All models are ZIPPO with any snow for their durations. As I noted weeks ago, Tampa's 32 straight months w/o a BN one, would end. As indicated by others, this applies to all of Florida. 38*(54%RH) here at 6am. 37* at 7am.

The reason this virus has few mutations is because it is checking on itself. The seasonal flu just mutates and some combinations are more viable than others and become the dominant strain the next season. If virologists guess which part of the virus has changed and will appear next, they will be successful next season. The 45 year track record for the seasonal flu vaccines is dismal. Notice there is little seasonal flu this year........because most people are wearing masks/separating--- the vaccine is garbage. We have taken 10 months to get to 18M CV19 cases, but seasonal flu is 30M in just 6 months on average. Ever see a CNN counter for this? Thank you for your comment. Try this one: No one has answered how China can have a total of 87,000 cases with 4.700 dead in one full year of this. Based on the US fiasco-- these numbers would be 75,000,000 cases and 1,600,000 dead for China. Don't just say they are lying w/o explaining why we are allowing them to do so by factors in the 100's of times too low.. Do they have a vaccine?, or is it just masks/separation enforcement. These numbers are better than we are going to do even if the vaccine does work. You know this 75M is curiously close to a vaccine that is 95% effective over a year of free exposure (no masks/separation) in a country the size of China ie. (.05)(1.4^9) . 18,429,048 +244,311 Deaths 326,502 +4,159 Recovered 8,167,820 +147,947 Look at today's one day assessment as of 11pm. We are wiping out one year's worth of China cases in just 8 hours, and their total deaths in just over one day.

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(29/42). Making it 31degs., or -3.0. Month to date is 39.1[+.02]. Should be 36.9[-0.7]] by the 30th. Possible snows on all models, dates/amts. differ. CMC is 15"! for the 29th, the EURO is a Trace, the GFS is zippo there but likes Jan.1-3 for 2". That's the basis of my "Would you believe a White New Years", joke from last week.. 39*(90%RH) here at 6am. Low was 38* at 5am. 42* by 10am. 46* by Noon. 47* at 1pm. 45* by 3pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(29/41). Making it 30degs., or -4.0. Month to date is 39.0[-0.1]. Should be about 36.5[-1.1] by the 29th. Models are all rain for their durations, except for a Trace of snow on the CMC(29th). A parade of close calls. GEFS Extended has brought back the Jan.6-7 15"er, after dropping it for a day. 40*(85%RH) here at 6am. Low was 38* at 2am. 44* by Noon. 45* by 1pm. 47* by 3pm.