CIK62

GEFS Extended and EURO Weeklies are similar: The first 5-day period that has BN T's is centered near the 24th in both cases and they both end centered near Feb. 05. Any snow cover throughout our area could extend this I suppose. There is a comeback in late Feb. into early Mar. Maybe El Gordo and then La Primavera. Unfortunately the GFS OP wants to lay waste to the next 12 days.

12Z Summary: GFS 9" Snow 1.8" Rain Coldest Day 12/24 28th. EURO (10 days) 4" Snow 1.6" Rain 24/29 24th. CMC (10 days) 6" Snow 1.6"Rain 20/25 24th. Coldest T's may center on Iowa as PV presses. Multiple sub-zero days and even sub-zero highs out there. Last Thurs it indicated the teens would hit us by next Thurs. So a week went by now and it is still one week away. That's Express Mail for you. Meanwhile it is 51* here at 2:30pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43). Making it 34degs., or +2.0 because I am a nice guy. No BN T's till the 24th. on this run. I am not going to mention snow since the models can not produce coherent consecutive outputs. But I am going to devise a way for them to pick my PowerBall & MegaBall #'s. 39*(70%RH) here at 6am. 40* at 6:30am. 42* by 9am. 45* by 10am. 50* by Noon. 52* by 4pm.

12Z Summary: GFS up to the 30th. 0" Snow 2.1" Rain coldest day(27th.) 14/27, equivalent to last year's lowest T. CMC up to the 23rd. 2" Snow 1.8 " Rain coldest day 25/37. EURO up to the 23rd. Trace 0.4" Rain coldest day 17/30. Using the 12Z T's which average 34.5degs.(30/39) uncorrected for the next 17 days, January should be somewhere between 32.1 to 35.1 by the 30th. In addition ACCUWEATHER is taking all T's up it seems, on a nationwide basis, for the next 6 months. Warns of SW Drought this summer. This summer is one of those 11-year cycle years, 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010 +11 = 2021. Bound to be AN. Odds that J,F,M finish AN around here on average is 2:1. That J,J,A finish AN around here the odds are now a whopping 5:1. Top Secret>>>>> I am hiding my SPF 45 in my snow boots. Which one do you think I will need first?

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/44). Making it 34degs., or +2.0 No BN T's till the 20th, No Snow till the 27th. on this run. The GFS will get it right given enough chances. lol. 06Z has snow on the 22nd and 27th. 39*(59%RH) here at 6am. (Was 37* at 1am) 42* by Noon. 44* by 3pm. 40* by 5pm.

ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER. AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases. Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country. I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic. It never started. All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable. Depressing. A SSWE wasted. And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*. 44* by 3pm. 45* at 3:30pm. Now after 3 or 4 runs with no Snow or little else, we get this: To be gone by 18Z? G O N E!!!***** Courtesy of WeatherBell *****And we have a hole in our head again: SSSS Top is from 18Z. The snow is rain compared to the 12Z Meteorgram.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43). Making it 34degs., or +1.0. No cold till the 25th. We have slid ahead a week---in a week. GEFS Extended goes sub-zero on the Control Member for the 29th. It has almost no snow for its duration however. 33*(70%RH) here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 40* by 11am. 41* by Noon. 43* by 1pm. 44* at 3pm.

I believe we are still in the running for two winter season records. Someone verify please........... Highest Low T 20 back on December 19th. current record 19 in 2001-02? Earliest Last Measured Snow December 17th. current record Jan. 18th. Just last winter? What is worse is that we could still be in the running 15 days from now! All the talk here is about historical storms or cold------proof positive nothing is happening or threatening to happen soon. My Ten Day Winter of Feb. 05-15 1983 (not 1979----that was single digits, run on dip and ended with a 12" no warning storm, 21" in Washington DC) is looming bigger. 1983 did have snow in December too, I believe. Since the winter started, 12/21 we are +4.6.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/44). Making it 35degs., or +2.0. No snow to speak of on any regular model. Indeed no precipitation to speak of. Arctic cold still getting shoved further out in time. 50 degrees more likely than sub-20 till the 20th. at least. More likely the 23rd.+. Curses: The 06Z is even worse. The next 13 days are still averaging 40(35/45), uncorrected. No sub-20 readings till the 26th.+, but the 50's are back in vogue, so where is Elvis? 32*(64%RH) here at 5am. 31* at 6am. 33* by 9am. 38* by Noon. 39* by 3pm.

The GEFS PWAT Negative Anomaly is nearly continuous for the next 16 days, except maybe for part of the Jan. 14-18 period. So how can we expect anything big to happen anyway? Another little item is that 2M T's are tracking the wild 50 degree F change I mentioned earlier today for the 850mb surface. 2M T goes from 9 to 53 in two days, 23rd. to the 25th.

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41). Making it 32degs., or -1.0. No snow to talk about. GFS is heading for the 50's by the end of its run----not the single digits of a P.V. spilt. Models should be offered early retirement. I can look out my window. The Control Member for the 850mb T rises 50 degrees F in two days: Jan. 24 to Jan. 26. Take that, you SSW! 31*(56%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 7am. 39* by 2pm. 40* at 2:15pm. 41* at 2:30pm. 43* at 3pm. 38* by 8pm. 37* by 10pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43). Making it 34degs., or +1.0. No Snow or Rain probably for two weeks or at least 10 days. "BN T's" is a cursed phrase. I am ready to invoke my TEN DAY WINTER theory----ala Feb. 05-15 1979. The dog has chased his tail and caught it! He bit into it and died! He mistook it for a poisonous rattlesnake. Poor Dumb Canine. 26*(64%RH) here at 6am. 32* by 11:30am. 33* at Noon. 34* by 1pm. 37* by 2pm.

Some interesting side points to ponder about the CoronaVirus: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-science/covid-science-virus-can-damage-brain-without-infecting-it-hair-loss-on-rise-among-minorities-during-pandemic-idUSL1N2JH28K As for BitCoin: Remember 2 X Zero is still Zero. Something with no tangible, intrinsic value to begin with, cannot double in price etc Ask yourself this>>>>>> How much are you willing to pay for a burlap sack full of sand. Well , if my property is not threatened by a flood in next few hours >>> $0.00 With ample warning I can obtain empty burlap sacks and fill them myself. If BitCoin is a storehouse of wealth, then why are you pricing it in Dollars? Ostensibly you are buying it in the first place because you fear a Dollar collapse!!!! When you can make statement such as 1 Bitcoin = 0.50 of an Escalade SUV, or = 0.10 the cost of an average home, or = 40 50" HDTV 4k TV's etc. ------ and these ratios do not change radically by the day or minute-----you will have something of value. Sorry, but all my Red Tulip Bulbs have molted and withered away.

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41). Making it 32degs., or -1.0. Month to date is 38.1[+5.1]. By the 16th., it should be between 35.0 and 37.5[+2.0<---->+4.5]. Models look warmer and basically snowless and dry otherwise, compared with last two days. The dog has started to chase his tail. >>>>>Meteorologists are blaming Covid-19 for their poor performance last year and to date. No----more Mets are not getting sick or dying than in general----but the reduction in data from commercial flight curtailments means we know less about the atmosphere at jetstream altitudes---than normally. 29*(70%RH) here at 6am. 31* by 9am. 34* by Noon. 38* by 3pm. 32* by 11pm.

12Z GFS has a hole in our head: (and the surgery that saved our lives) Look----the problem is not lack of snow. There is no precipitation. 10x0.30" would be just 3" anyway. Emphasis should be on the potential T's between Jan. 20 and maybe Feb.08. There are sub-zero members on the GFS Extended throughout that period!

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(32/41). Making it 31degs., or -2.0. EURO/CMC back with 7"(each) on the 13th. GFS needs a snow machine----it is Zippo throughout. Even the T drop is slipping forward and becoming more muted. PV Spilts are not as good as stretches and reorientations for NA. Now the talk is of wanting the atmosphere to behave contrary to its canonical typing in order to be able to poster talk of snow etc. Gonna take a fluke---as the models take a flop. GEFS Extended gives us one week to work with----Jan. 21-28----which averages just Normal. 32*(65%RH) here at 6am. 37* by Noon. 41* by 2pm. 36* by 7pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(32/40). Making it 31degs., or -2.0. Models hopelessly lost when it comes to snow. Musical Chairs and Illegal Forward Passes abound. No reason to post amounts/dates before next run alters it. Gonna be a long uncertain wait. 37*(75%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 40* by 11am. 39* at Noon. 42* by 2pm. 36* by 7:00pm.

Here we go again. Another variant that is resistant to the current vaccines, which can't even be administrated properly anyway. Before enough of the world gets the current stuff, a new vaccine will be needed------and a new one, and a new one........................ https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/south-africa-covid-strain-may-weaken-impact-of-vaccines-says-top-scientist-shabir-madhi/ar-BB1cuw1b?ocid=uxbndlbing

The next 8 days are averaging 34degs.(30/38). Making it 29degs., or -4.0. GFS(06Z) has no precipitation at all till day 16. The T falls off the cliff starting the 18th. EURO no precipitation either. CMC keeping the 13th. alive for some snow. The 12Z CMC has given up the Snow Ghost of Jan. 12,13 and it now is haunting the 12Z EURO. Nice work boys. 40* (72%RH)here at 6am, mod. overcast. Up from 39* at 2am. 42* by 10am. 44* briefly at 10:30am. 41* at Noon.

Snow roundup from the 12Z: Jan. 09 NONE all models The EURO has no 10-Day precipitation at all and is thus out of the game. Jan. 13 7" on the GFS and 2" on the CMC On the 16th and 19th. the GFS is close to something.

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(32/40). Making it 30degs., or -3.0. Unfortunately the snow, and indeed the percipitation itself is gone. Just the CMC has 5" on the 13th. Musical Chairs and handoffs continue with these potential storms, 9th, 13th.,15th, 18th. No real cold till the 20th. Even that T drop is questionable. We are going to be robbed. 37*(84%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 40* by 10am, clearing up. 42* at 11am. 43* at Noon. 44* briefly at 1pm. 42* at 2pm and cloudy. 40*%41* all evening.

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(33/42). Making it 33degs., or just Normal. GFS (0Z)with a total of 13" from both the 9th. and 13th. this run. Gone again by 06Z. Other models just a Trace. Musical Chairs continues among models. Hunk of Junk. Maybe 5 storm chances before Cryogenic City begins around the 19th.*** ***Both the Extended GFS and EURO have a step-down slope as we enter the bottom of the Normal curve. Sub-zero days are shown for last week of the month in both cases------but the EURO even has the Control Member go sub-zero. First sub 20 reading by the 20th, or earlier if we get some snow cover. 38*(70%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 39* by 8am.

18Z GFS, uncorrected for the next 17 days shows no changes. Another day older and deeper in heat>>>>> Avg. 40degs.(35/44), or +7.0. CMC has the best T's, I think. GEFS Extended has the usual>>>>>A control that shows a low of 60degs., when the coldest member simultaneously shows -15degs.------Week 4 now. Keeps slipping. In early December it showed New Years Eve at near Zero. The only real blocking going on is at the synapses of the meteorologists and the models they create. When are we suppose to see the benefits of this Blocking pattern anyway?

The SSWE looks like a Fail for us on the main LR models, leaving out the JMA. Do not know what the latest is there. The benefit over last winter is that blobs of Arctic air may cause a surprise event. There is no mention of real cold or snow here for this month. Western Europe is sitting pretty. Then Russia/Siberia. We get the leftovers, if any. In reality these outputs, whether Good or Bad for us are garbage. We know that when the data for the Northern Winter are complied----there will be 4x the surface area shown as AN compared to the BN. Just as it is every month, every season and annually. Quite silly to try to place that patch(es) of Blue ahead of time. Courtesy of WeatherBell. The EURO did not update yet, but it was the same as below for D,J,F.

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(34/42). Making it 33degs., or just Normal. No snow on the 9th anymore----now it's the 13th. Have fun. 39*(95%RH) here at 6am(Fog 1mi.) Cleared up by 8am. Already 47* by 10:30am. Mixed clouds/sun, breezy 50* but Noon. 51* at 1pm. 41* by 8pm. 39* by 10pm.