CIK62

The last 5 of days of January are averaging 28degs.(24/32). Making it 25degs., or -7.0. Month to date is 36.5[+4.2]. January should end between 34.6 and 35.1. The first 12 days of February are averaging 35degs. (30/40). EURO dropped from 10" to 2" on snow for Jan. 31---Feb. 02. CMC and GFS still about 8" to 12". Cobb Method 06Z snow is 10" over 48 hours>>>>> Jan. 31 PM to Feb. 02 PM. Snow is on and off with a borderline T, except as the start. 35*(93%RH) here at 6am/7am. Skies clearing. 38* by 9am. 32* by 10pm.

The last 6 days of January are averaging 28degs.(24/31). Making 24degs., or -8.0. Month to date is 36.7[+4.4]. January should end between 34.2 and 35.0. The winter(12/21...... to date) is 167/36=+4.6. Last year at this time it was +6.9. All models have 10" to 15" of Snow for the period Jan.31---Feb. 02.***** However, the GEFS Extended dropped from 50" to just 10". Toilet paper supply still increasing. So is the amount of sh.t. Where is the janitor? *****All GFS snow gone already on the 06Z run. MISTER JANITOR YOU ARE NEEDED HERE RIGHT NOW.... ................ 35*(48%RH) here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 38*/37* by Noon.

First 10 days of February averaging 36degs.(30/42) with no real snow at first blush. If the long range shows snow, it is working from memory only! You know the score>>> Jan. 20---Feb10 averages 9" so show some snow God Damn It-----the model engine says to itself. Lol. At any rate, the latest LR is in and no change till Week 3 of February. Supposedly another Strat Warming shortly will produce the party. Meanwhile find a way to use this useless output to predict lottery outcomes.

The last 6 days of January are averaging 30degs.,(25/34). Making it 25degs., or -7.0. Month to date is 37.0[+4.6]. January should end between 34.2 and 35.4. Little to no snow (under 2", all models)for remainder of month is now likely. First week of February visits Mt. Olympus at 60+, but could have some snow anyway. 850mb. T goes from -20C to +10C in a few days. Actually the first half of February looks like a Hell Hole now. PV doing the Tighten Up? My "TEN DAY WINTER" forecast will be right, else this J,F,M does a better impersonation of last year than anyone thought. 25*(51%RH) here at 6am. 38* by 2pm.

JUST TRASH? 50' OF SNOW !!!!!!! AND YOU SHOULD SEE THE BRUTALIZING CONTROL T's THAT GO WITH THIS. HIGHS UNDER 20 UP THE WHAZOO FOR A MONTH.

The last 8 days of January are averaging 29degs.(24/33). Making it 24degs., or -8.0. Month to date is 37.4[+5.0]. January should end between>>> 34.0 to 35.3. GFS runs still swinging wildly for the first week of February with highs of just 40 or up to 60. Do not expect more than 2"---4" for the 26th. Do not be surprised by a 0" mess of gulash. Second storm looks GREAT for ..............Maryland-Virginia 6"+, ah shucks! A single digit T, "month ending kiss off", is possible. Hey do not forget 5 years ago today we woke up to 30.5"(JFK)!!!. That was after 3 of the 4 previous months had each been the warmest ever. 23*(46%RH) here at 6am. 22* at 7am. 24* by 9am. 28* by Noon. 30* at 1pm. 32* at 2pm. 33* at 3:30pm.

12Z GFS is another Nothing Burger. 5" from 0.40" LE and a 2mT barely 32*, or actually >32*? The 18Z GFS (not shown) likes Feb. 01 and Feb. 05 for some snow. Not even a Nothing Burger any more in Jan., just a water balloon painted to look like a Big Mac. As for breaking below 20 degrees tomorrow morning all, models (GFS CMC EURO and National Blend are calling for 22 only. The NWS using its NDFD is calling for 19 degrees-----Whoopee!

GOING BACK TO LONDON, LONDON, LONDON Well its snow less in this old town------There is no white stuff coming down-----Saw a snowflake yesterday------But the wind just blew it away. GOING BACK TO LONDON, LONDON, LONDON

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(27/34). Making it 26degs., or -6.0. No comment on snow till a given model can be produce two consecutive/coherent outputs that are the same and models agree with each other. Use meso limit of 84 hrs. and 48hrs., it's peak performance range. Best>>>>>>>Tune in Wed. AM. 29* (40%RH) here at 6am. [37* at Midnite] 28* at 8am. 29* at 9am. 31*/32* Noon to 2pm. 25* by 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 28degs.(23/33). Making it 23degs., or -9.0. Finally all models agree on about 6" of snow on the 26th.***** Next system stays south and gets Maryland-Virginia? First 5 days of February still look +8.0. ******Prediction: 5" to 8" with borderline 2mT's of 27 to 32 degrees. About a 16 hour event, roughly 11pm Mon. to 3pm Tues. Winds NE 15-20mph. 38*(62%RH) here at 6am. 40* by 9am. 44* by 11am. 45* briefly at 2pm. 44* at 3pm. 40* by 7pm. 37* by 11pm.

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0Z Snow Summary: 1/26 ------ 1/30to 2/01 GFS 0" , 13" CMC 0", 0" indeed no precip! EURO 5", 0" CLOWN Model-------???????????????????? 12Z GFS does little to further any snow and less to further Arctic air intrusion. It ends up at 60 degrees after two weeks of nothingness. 22 degrees at best. 12Z CMC is colder and brings back some snow of 6" for the 26th. 12z EURO still 5", 0" 18z GFS is another Nothing Burger. However it is a 15" Jackpot on the 28th/29th for Roanoke, VA.! CLOWN Model-------to be announced after the event------actually refer to the above if you can not wait.

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(27/35). Making it 26degs., or -6.0. GFS looks way AN during start of Feb. 06Z GFS can not even get below 20 on the run and has no snow to speak of. The models are less than useless as they flit around and exchange roles with each other. Anyone using them to get from NY to LA will end up in Tasmania. Offer them Early Retirement w/o a Pension and just look out your window! For the longer range use a telescope. Lol. 29*(55%RH) here at 6am. 28* overnight. 32* by 10am. 35 * by 11am. 38* by Noon. 40* by 1pm. 41* at 2pm---5pm. 39* by 7pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs., (27/36). Making it 27degs , or -5.0. The 06Z is a warm run. Shows some morsels of snow for today. No BN 20 readings for the month. EURO/CMC are colder with their 0Z runs, as was the 0Z GFS. The 26th. is DOA and has been removed to the 30th ----or maybe it will rise again like the Phoenix. 38*(59%RH) here at 6am. 36* at 7am with wet snow. 35*(80%RH) at 7:15am. I hope everyone feels better sexually after the short snow release. Beach here has a tinch of white. Yay! 39* by 1pm. 32* by 6pm. The way it looked on radar at about 7:30am................

The next 8 days are averaging 33degs.(28/38). Making it 28degs., or -4.0. No snow to talk of because there is no precipitable water to talk of. 0Z GFS does not go below 20 for remainder of month. O6Z GFS is colder, but just as dry. 06Z and 18Z runs have the brain of a Russett Potato. EURO has 12" and the CMC gave it up yesterday for the 25th/26th. EURO is a northerly branch job only, thin W-E swath. Plus a follow-up twin for the 30th. Choose your favorite output. Starting with Dec. 21 we are +5.4 to date, just like J,F,M last year. To date this month is 37.9. If the last 13 days are Normal, we would end up at 35.6. 35*(70%RH) here at 6am. 40* by 11am. 41* by Noon. 43* by 3pm. 40* by 5pm.

12Z GFS makes an apology. Nosedives by 30 degrees and also goes nutty with the snow, not shown. Mental Illness will do that: The GFS sings.......PEOPLE DON'T YOU WORRY----I KNOW WHAT I'M DOIN'------I KNOW WHAT COLD'S ALL ABOUT----Ah! THIS little VORTEX WON'T MAKE A FOOL OUT OF ME-----CAUSE I'M GONNA STRAIGHTENED IT OUT!!!!!!

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(30/39). Making it 30degs., or -2.0. TOTAL MODEL FAIL. COLD IS GONE FOR JANUARY and FEBRUARY STARTS ALL IN THE 50'S. Must be the lack of upper air data over the Pacific due to Covid commercial airline flight cancellations. I love making excuses. CMC still the coldest, and with some snow still showing near the 26th. Oooh!, I almost forgot: 40*(65%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 45* by Noon. 47* by 3pm. 39* by 10pm.

18Z GFS (an untrustworthy run usually---is our salvation?) for the last week of the month is again averaging 33degs. (28/38). Barely normal when a day ago it was 12 degrees less and more fitting of a PV breakup. We would finish January w/o getting below 20. Snow on the 26th. is virtually gone too. Roy Orbison is readying himself to sing "It's Over"-----but I won't give the link yet. lol Seems I use this song too often.

HELP ME RHONDA YEAH!!!..................Get Me Out of this Winter................ Polar Vortex Bust keeps getting worse. We do not break 20 at mid-winter with a loose PV???!!! The last 7 days of January are now averaging 33degs.(28/38), a full 12 degrees more than just 3 runs back.

The next 8 days are averaging 34degs.(29/39). Making it 29degs., or -3.0. The last week of January is averaging 26degs.(21/31).[GFS,0Z] Big increase in the average and we would greet February at 50degs. All models have some snow 25th./26th.***** No sub-20 T till the 27th./28th. 06Z Run is warmer still>>> *****No storm phasing either. SO SORRY 36*(70%RH) here at 6am, breezy. 37* by 9am. 38* by 10am.

The last 8 days of the month are now averaging 21degs.(15/27). [Could lop off 3 degrees on the monthly average, with this] Added bonus: 5" of snow on the 26th. However that offshore blizzard low of 968mb. is gone near the 30th.

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(32/42). Making it 32degs., or just Normal. The remainder of the month is averaging 24degs.(19/29). There is no precipitation showing after today till the 30th. Long string of sub-32 highs is possible. 42*(95%RH) here at 6am. 43* at 7am. 46*/47* near Noon.

Latest GEFS Extended Control Member has gone from 30" to 5" of snow. The T's may turn out to be the big story. I think we will go sub-zero somewhere between Jan. 25 and Feb. 10, with or without the snow. Long string of 32 degree or lower high T's possible.

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The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/42). Making it 32degs , or just Normal. No snow to speak of anywhere or time. GFS is bone dry after 1"+ tonight/tomorrow. Well at least the last 6 days of the month are averaging 23degs(18/28),uncorrected. 41*(75%RH) here at 6am. 43* by 9am. 44* by 10am. 49* by Noon. 48* by 3pm.