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CIK62

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  1. CIK62
    The next 8 days are averaging 26degs.(19/33), or -8.0. GFS back to a -6! reading at mid-month. Coldest since 1943 and with about the same timing-----so it might miss being a record! Snow potential tonight into tomorrow about 3"-6" on all models. NAM way down too. Up to 16" total over next two weeks still possible. 34*(57%RH) here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 41* by 11am. 43* at Noon. 45* by 2pm. 40* by 10pm.
  2. CIK62
    COBB METHOD on latest NAM 12Z is 16", up from Nothing on the 06Z. Final Super Bowl score will be somewhere between 13-3 and 55-10. Is that accurate enough for you? You get to pick the team that wins. however. Eat your pizza and do not look out the window. IT IS BASED ON 1" OF LIQUID. ACTUALLY IT IS BASED UPON HOW MANY KERNELS OF CORN ARE LEFT ON THE 'COBB' AFTER THE CHIEF METEOROLOGIST HAS NIBBLED ON IT FOR AN HOUR. LOL! Looks like it means it here:
  3. CIK62
    The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/35), or -4.0. True to form, the often played and tampered with 18Z GFS, has lost our cold and snow. This run should come with a public warning. Shovels and plows Off/ SPF 45 On. 39*(76%RH) here at 6am. {36* at Midnite} 41* at 7am. Back to 40* by 9am. 43* by Noon. 45* at 1pm. 48* by 2pm---lite jacket while walking around. Melting going on, so boots may be needed at the corners. 50* by 3pm. 51* at 4:30pm, High 42* by 10pm.
  4. CIK62
    GET THIS. 16" OF TOTAL SNOW AND LOWEST T's SINCE 1943. And this ain't Minnesota!!!!! -6 !!!!!!!!!!! Folks. It isn't Minnesota........but it is the 18Z GFS. This is Minneapolis: 14 Straight Sub-Zero Days!!!!! Anyone know what their records look like for this type of event?
  5. CIK62
    10" of Snow near the 13th.(not shown) plus single digit lows to follow? I show Minneapolis first so we seem warm.
  6. CIK62
    The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(26/36), or -2.0. Not much snow or any precipitation to yelp about. If Arctic air doesn't Dilly Dally and warm up while getting here---maybe it will be the topic of discussion. EURO still the coldest, but not sub-zero anymore. 32*(59%RH) here at 6am. 31* at 7am. 38* by Noon. Really nice out there if you stay clear of the melting going on. 42* by 3pm. 45* by 4:30pm. Back to 40* by 6pm.
  7. CIK62
    Snow has largely disappeared for the next 10 days. EURO is Sub-Zero here on the 13th and the CMC and GFS are only near 20 degrees. Who will surrender first?
  8. CIK62
    The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34)., or -4.0. No snow for the next 5 days. Nothing major showing yet after that time either. The storm that just passed was 2.0"+14.8"+0.4" = 17.2". My area in CI was no where near this much. Barometer still in the 29.40"---29.47" for over a day I think. Still at the latter now. EURO is 10 degrees colder than the other models. Say repeated single digit lows to the teens on the CMC and GFS. 30*(75%RH) here at 6am. 32* by 9am. 35* by 10am. 36* by Noon. 37* by 3pm. Briefly was 38*. 35* by 7pm.
  9. CIK62
    Well here is your 40" and then some. GFS not so hot, literally.
  10. CIK62
    The next 8 days are averaging 30degs. (24/36), or -3.0. Still several snow chances, so maybe another 6" to 12" during next two weeks after today. Apparently for NYC, storm total was 2.0"+14.8" + ? = 16.8", up to midnight, 6 hours ago. Unless another 20"+ potential starts showing up (and they are regular fare around here since 1996) the T's will be the big story. The Back 9 Days to the above 8 days is averaging 21degs.(15/27), or -13. That is uncorrected, despite GFS' tendency to be too high here. To get D,J,F to go negative, February needs to be > -4.3. It is off to a good start. About -7 or -8 by the 19th. 32*(98%RH) here at 6am. P> 29.44" 33* P> 29.41" by Noon.
  11. CIK62
    DON'T GET SCARED. THIS IS NOT NYC. THIS IS FOR DUBUQUE, IOWA. -31F! CHICAGO IS ABOUT AS COLD WITH LESS SNOW HOWEVER. We might get to +5 if we are fortunate. Other T's Minneapolis 6 days of sub-zero highs in a row. Tallahasse 25 Atlanta 10 Polar Vortex Workout----Part 2?
  12. CIK62
    3pm: Just reached 32* here in CI. P> 29.64" Some form of light-white is falling. Here is the Radar, w/o type. Looks like Cobb Method showing no snow after about 2pm was right so far. Only mixed till end of storm. EURO has three snow events after today totaling 10". Feb. 05,07, 10.
  13. CIK62
    Current Radar. No Precip. Type 29* here at 10am. NOTE THAT BY THE COBB METHOD 06z GFS ALL SNOW BECOMES SLEET by 2pm today.......THEN RAIN SO ONLY 8" MORE....................BUT THE NAM FOR THIS RUN HAS ALL SNOW FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR 23" TO BE ADDED TO THE ORIGINAL 2" WE HAD BY MIDNITE.
  14. CIK62
    January ended at 34.8[+2.2] with 2.1" of snow, a full 2.0" of that from current storm. The first 8 days of February are averaging 28degs.(23/33), or -5.0. Models say anywhere from 10" to 20" still to go on current storm. 28*(93%RH) here at 6am/7am. Light snow at best,calm. P> 29.91" 28*/29* at 9am with moderate, blowing snow, P>29.88". 33* P>29.61" by 6pm.
  15. CIK62
    HRRR3 Model seems to have Precip Type issues by Noon tomorrow for all of LI, NYC, S. Shore of Conn. and all but upper third of NJ. I think it is an experimental output though. Comments. Choose correct Sector. Check Radar and Winter Use the > to go as far as it can on the 23Z Run, passed the Red boxes. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/
  16. CIK62
    My T has flirted with 30 degrees all afternoon here in CI. This seems 3 degrees higher than it is supposed to be at storm onset. Are we expecting evaporational cooling? My RH is low enough at 53% now for that to happen, I suppose. If we don't pull down 9"+ tomorrow, during the heavy precipitation PM period you can forget about a 20-incher.
  17. CIK62
    The last day of January is averaging 24degs.(21/27), or -8.0. Month to date is 35.2[+2.7]. January should end near 34.9[+2.4]. 24*(53%RH) here at 6am/7am. Flirted with 30* during the afternoon. 24* again by 8pm. Coming snowstorm potentials: NYC NAM 20" CMC 23" EURO 15" GFS 15" SREF 11" I caution that the heaviest snow is falling tomorrow PM while surface T's and 850mb T's are minimal. SREF probably senses this-----and loses 5"+ to the other models.
  18. CIK62
    Latest Summary for NYC: NAM 20" CMC 18" EURO 15" 17" on 18Z GFS 12" SREF 10" a lot of wasted LE however.
  19. CIK62
    The last two days of January are averaging 23degs.(18/28). Month to date is 35.5[+3.1]. January should end at 34.7[+2.3]. SNOW Potentials for Jan. 31-Feb. 03: GFS,EURO 14" CMC 20" NAM 16" NWS not giving numbers yet, but it sounds like 10"-21". A period of heavy snow, a period of moderate snow , a period of light snow, they say. So 6"+3"+1" minimum and doubled. 17*(58%RH) here at 6am. 19* by 9am. 24* by Noon 25* at 12:30pm. 26* at 1pm. 30* at 2pm Made it to 34* around 4pm. This quick rise to above freezing is a warning sign for the storm. 32* by 6pm. 28* by 10pm.
  20. CIK62
    12Z Cobb Method: GFS down to 3" again. NAM is 25!" ------and it is still snowing at hour 84. Of course the storm is taking place during the less accurate time frame for the NAM. Do not think this will be repeated for this same run tomorrow.
  21. CIK62
    The last 3 days of January are averaging 21degs.(16/27), or -11.0. Month to date is 36.1[+3.7]. January should end at 34.6. GFS and CMC are 10", while EURO is 3". GFS also has bigger storm(Blizzard?) around the 10th. The first half of February is averaging 34degs.(27/34), uncorrected. 19*(46%RH) here at 6am. {High of 22* at 4:30am} 18* at 6:30am. 17* at 6:45am. 16* at 7:15am. 17* at 9am. 20* by 11:30am. 21* by Noon. Reached 26* 3:30pm-4:30pm. 20* by 9pm.
  22. CIK62
    After four solid double digit, but dubious snow outputs in a row, we get this: As I pointed out before, there will never be a shortage of toilet paper in any NWS Office as long as there are GFS printouts, laying around.
  23. CIK62
    STILL DOUBLE DIGITS FOR NYC, BUT NOTE 0.50" LE FALLS WITH A VERY MARGINAL T STRUCTURE AT THE SURFACE. THAT COULD CUT OUT 6", RIGHT OFF THE BAT. THEN EVERYTHING WASHES AWAY ANYWAY BY THE 6TH?. THE -20F TO -25F IN SAY CHICAGO AND DUBUQUE ON THE 7TH/8TH BECOMES OUR +10 FOR ONE DAY NEAR THE 10TH. Anyone know what happened to the CMC. Output stuck at 24 hours on Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits.
  24. CIK62
    The last 4 days of January are averaging 25degs.(21/30). Making it 23degs., or -9.0. Month to date is 36.4[+4.1]. January should end between 34.7 and 34.9. Starting to look like a scary snowstorm coming with the three main models ranging now from 11" up to 23". Trouble is, it is all borderline T dependent. More Good News: The first 13 days of February are averaging 27degs.(22/33) on this 06Z GFS run, uncorrected. 29*(57%RH) here at 6am. 28* at 8am. It was 31* back at Midnite. 32* by 2pm. 33* at 3pm. 27* by 6pm. 24* by 8pm. 21* by 9pm.
  25. CIK62
    A great 12Z GFS run 16" in 48 hours for NYC......by the Cobb Method, not shown.
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