CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs., (24/34) again[3rd. day]. Month to date is 32.3[-1.8]. It should be 31.3 by the 25th. Snow Thurs/Fri and maybe into next Mon.(On and Off) is averaging 10" on the major models. Skin T should be ready to receive the snow as soon as it starts---as we stay under 32 today. NWS is 4" Low> 9" High and 7" Best Bet. 26*(50%RH) here at 6am. 25* at 7am. 24* at 8am. 23* at 9am. 29* by Noon. 30* by 1pm. Reached 36* at 4:30pm. 32*/33* during 6pm-9pm.

I believe with today's cluster of runs, NYC deserves to be in the 6"-12" category. NAM 18Z still holding up in the double digits along with the GFS.

Not within the 'accurate forecast' time range yet for the NAM unfortunately:

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34), or -6.0. The -6 for this morning of 10 and fewer days ago, has missed by 50 Degrees Plus. Models suck. Still 3" to 7" on Thurs/Fri, maybe less switch to rain. Actually less LE to work with------but almost all of it turned to snow on the models now. Watch out for a Page One Replate. 47*!!!(99%RH) FOG <0.2 miles. Up from 37* at Midnight. 42*(variable) at 8am, Fog improving. 47* (variable) at 11am, with sunny breaks for the the last 90mins. 48* at Noon. 49* at 1pm. 50* at 1:30pm. 51* at 3:30pm. 47* at 5pm. 44* by 6pm. 34* by 10:30pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/34), or -5.5. Thurs/Fri looks like 3"-7" of snow to start on the main models and then a self-cleaning changeover to rain. By the end of the month, the GFS is 30 degrees colder than the GEFS. 34*(64%RH) here at 6am/7am., overcast. 38* by Noon. 39* briefly at 12:30pm. 36* by 3pm.

Is there going to be a separate Topic for this Thurs/Fri which has reemerged on the GFS for a few runs?: Looks borderline doable. Could disappear again. Really a TriFecta of Snow>Sleet>Rain. 2.8" liquid, but just 7" of snow. Thank You.....donsutherland1 .

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/35), or -5.0. Models look warmer, but have decided to throw some snow into the picture. Flat pattern setting up by the 22nd. SE Ridge in control except near the 20th. Month looks DOA. BN ending? -6 became +20(over 8 days), a slight miscue in the eyes of the GFS. No problem. For the part of the wintertime that remains and has any meaning, the period 2/28 to 3/10 has semi-favorable TC's. The PNA is a -4sd trainwreck for the next 30 days, however. A fortuitous combination of the others may neutralize it. (From the 30 Day EURO) Maybe it is just 'Ghoul-ash'. 30*(86%RH)here at 6am. 32* by 9am. 37* by Noon. 38* all afternoon and at 6pm.

After showing 23" of snow about 6 runs ago, the GFS has been Zippo-Ing it:

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(24/36), or -4.5. GFS snowless still, while keeping way AN liquid amounts to work with. CMC/EURO going the wrong way. btw: Models are inializing with a 2mT that 7 to 10 degrees too low. How do you predict the future w/o the correct present? 28*(42%RH) here at 6am/7am. 32* by Noon. 33* at 6pm.

Third run in a row with no snow here, then total boredom sets in. No precipitation and temperatures too warm for snow anyway in Week 2. Please NB that the CMC/EURO still hanging with 6" on this same run. Don't forget that the GFS' Clown's Night Out Run (18Z)-----will be here by around 7pm.

The positive 500mb height Anomaly along with the 850mb T anomaly-----seem to just keep getting stronger for the next 8 days, and monotonically so. Both reach +3.0sd by then. What the hell went wrong? And we were going to have a -6 morning.

The next 8 days are averaging 26degs.(20/32), or -8.5. GFS has gone from 20" to NO INCHES over the next 16 days, and much warmer after the 21st. That's two straight runs at ZERO"! The v16 won't let anything like that happen-----RIGHT? CMC/EURO are 8" over the next 10 Days. 24*(52%RH) here at 6am. 23* at 7am. 31* by Noon. 29* at 1pm. 29*-32* all afternoon and 32* at 10pm.

Another confused GFS 18Z run. Enough LE for 50"+ at just an 8:1 ratio.

The next 8 days are averaging 23degs.(16/29), or -11.0. GFS back with 23" total snow over the next 15 days. 16th/17th and the 25th. will do it. 29*(87%RH), light snow fell overnight. 28* at 7am. 32* by 10am. 34* by Noon. 32* by 2pm. 34* again at 3pm.

The T's that were showing for NYC last week for the mid-month period seem set to happen in Texas et al instead---as even Houston gets to 0* apparently. Not even single digit hits here. This is in Houston. Maybe elevation is playing a role here. Hard to believe this is really 2M above sea level.

The next 8 days are averaging 24degs.(18/29), or -10.0. Up to 10" of snow possible over the next 10 days, via the major models. 27*(63%RH) at 6am/7am here. 30* by 10am. 31* at 11am. 32* by 12:30pm. 33* at 1pm. 35* at 2pm. 36* at 3pm.

The T has dipped below 32 by 7pm and for the next 8 days may not exceed freezing. The snow outlook is not very good till the 15th/19th.

The next 8 days are averaging 25degs.(19/25), or -9degs. Month to date is 33.4[-0.4]. Should be 29.2[-5.0] by the 17th. GFS has lost the single digit lows and its heavy snows. Other models mostly lost the snow only. Just 2"-5" of snow over the next 10 days on 0Z runs. The mid-month 850mb. T's of -25C, are up 13 degrees on the ensembles. 30*(73%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 31* at 7am. Overnight low was 28*. 35* by 9am. 36* at 10am. 37* at 11am. 35* at Noon. 33* by 3pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 24degs.(17/30), or -10.0. Yesterday's snow was 4.5". Total for February now 19.9", 32.5" for season. Expect 4" to 8" more during the above period. 19*(52%RH) here at 6am. 18* briefly at 7am. 20* by 9am. 25* by Noon. 30* by 3pm. Really a very benign sub-32 high. 32* near 4pm.

The makings of a 50" snow total for this month?: With this onslaught, as Arctic fronts spar with the SE Ridge, we can add this 30" to the 15" prior to today, and have another few days to get to 50".

Should be ending soon in the City. I still have 34*, (2pm) tire tracks can be seen, but really not sticking per se.

Sorry no Precip. Types: It is 34* here at 10am, down from 39*.

The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(22/32), or -7.0. Today's snow down to just 3"-5" on the models. 39*(54%RH) here at 6am. P> 1017.5mb. 37*(70%RH) P> 1016.1mb at 9am, snowing throughout......... 36* at 9:15am(79%RH). 35*(88%RH) at 9:30am. 34*(94%RH) at 10am. Still 34*(98%) at 2pm. P>1010.9mb.

GOTTA LOVE THESE 18Z GFS RUNS. GIVES UP THE SUB-ZERO STUFF AND GIVES US 33" OF TOTAL SNOW:

Starting to look more like a rain event. My High T yesterday was 51* and I currently (2pm) have 45*. (46* at 3pm.) All I am seeing are T's in the mid 30's for the whole event. Remember one week ago this was a rain event with the primary low hundreds of miles up into Canada, just dragging a front with it. https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA 12Z Cobb Method outputs: GFS 1" NAM 6", mixing issues