CIK62

Now see this>>>>> 18Z GFS On the 18th. 15" of Snow, 32* highs????? Boy, the new GFS has its work cut out for it on its very first day of operation.........24 hours earlier.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., (35/50), or about +2.0. No precipitation till mid-month when some of it may be snow. The 18th. could be as cold as today, after the jump up to visit the 70's on the 12th,13th. 23*(45%RH) here at 6am. (was 28* at midnite) 32* by Noon. 38* by4pm. 35* by 9pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(33/47), or -1.0. The GFS still has renegade cold on the 13th, (now on the 15th) and then some snow on the 15th. CMC has 60* for the 13th. V16 operational after the snow? lol. 41*(62%RH) here at 6am. (was 46* at midnite) 40* at 7am. 43* by 3pm.

Still looking the same. Kicks up AN by the 9th. And No Snow. T here up from 32* at 6am to 52* at 3pm. 53* at 4:30pm.

Looking little changed after the 8th. However, the solid area of BN air that seemed headed here after the 18th for many runs now, looks like it went through the mix master(not shown) and became unidentifiable, middle of the road junk that won't cut it near springtime. Long wait for nothing. Same lack of precipitation except for the 11th, 15th. as before(not shown).

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(29/43), or -4.0. No Snow. In fact no precipitation for 10 days. Same warmup still showing up starting March 09. Rain on the 11th and 15th should do it for the next 15 days. T uncertainty about the 13th. 22*(40%RH) here at 6am. ( Was 33* at midnight.) 28* by Noon. 35* by 4pm.

60's up the Wazzoo incoming:

February limped into the finish line to end at 34.2[-1.1]. The last 7 days of the month were +5.0. The first 8 days of March are averaging 36degs.(29/42), or -4.0. No Snow. Then, as before, the GFS goes nuts and the next 9 days after that are averaging 55degs.(47/64), or +12.0. A leap of 5 or 6 weeks into the future. Then an Arctic push about the 18th??? What would it mean at that point? Never mind since LR outputs say it never gets across the country anyway. 43*(98%RH) here at 6am. Rain. Was 47* at 2am. and 42* at 5am. 45* by Noon. 47* at 1pm. 36* by 11pm. Remember when I showed a 975mb low and snow/rain for time frame near March 1. The cold is in with the wind, but storm is way north. However we do have a Gale Warning out of the setup: Issued To: Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued March 01 at 4:27AM EST until March 02 at 6:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas of 4 to 5 feet. * WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. INSTRUCTIONS: Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

The last day of February is averaging 38degs. Month to date is 33.8[-1.3]. February will end at 34.0[-1.3]. Another Switch-eroo for the GFS. The first 10 days of March are averaging 35degs. (28/42), or -5.0---but no snow showing. The first 8 days of March two years ago were -10.0 with 10" of snow. 44*(78%RH) here at 6am. Was 43* at 3am. 46* by 9am. 50* by Noon. 46* again at 1pm. after precipitation started.

There is some inkling of TeleConnection support around this time too. Crossing of the Neutral Zone by the NAO,PNA? Otherwise the TC's look hopeless through March 15. 18Z is averaging 50degs.(41/60) for Week 2. Meanwhile the GFS is learning to climb mountains:

The last 2 days of February are averaging 40degs.(36/44), or +2.0. Month to date is 33.4[-1.6]. February will end at 33.9[-1.4]. Hear all your favorite hits from the 50's and early 60's starting March 08 on WGFS! If you are a sentient centarian who remembers the hits of the 20's and 30's, the station plans a possible format change about March 17. 42%(83%RH), Rain. Was 40* at midnight. 43* at 7am. 44* at 8am. 45* at 9am. 46* at 11am, FOG<0.2mi. 48* at Noon. 50* at 1pm. FOG continues. 51* at 2pm, Fog lifted. M. Sunny PM, 53* by 4pm. 49* by 6pm. 44* by 9pm.

The last 3 days of February are averaging 39degs.(34/43), or +1.0. Month to date is 33.2[-1.7]. February should end at 33.8[-1.5]. First 10 days of March are averaging 46degs.(39/53), or +6.0, including our first 70 on the 10th. No snow to talk about. 37*(40%RH) here at 6am. 36* at 7am. 38* by 9am. 40* at 10am. Still 40* at Noon, but was 41* at 10:30am. 43* by 2pm. 42* at 3pm. 39* by 6pm. 40* by 9pm.

Seems they used the wrong color for most of the country. Maybe these climatologists are color blind. Does not instill confidence----they should join the government economists. This was the output shown back on Jan. 21. A Texan or Oklahoman would probably be testing the A/C rather than collecting firewood upon seeing this.

The last 4 days of February are averaging 39degs (34/44), or about +1.0. Month to date is 32.7[-2.1]. February should end at 33.6[-1.6]. No snows to talk about. The first 10 days of March are much lower than a few days ago now, 38(31/45), or -1.0. I reached only 48* yesterday and note the City was 54*. 45*(45%RH) at 6am. Down to 41* at 7am. Was 48* back at 3:30am. 43* by Noon. 48* by 3pm. 50* by 4pm.

Looking to bet on a BN Spring----Get NEMO to loan you a $1.00: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas1.html

The last 5 days of February are averaging 40degs.(34/46), or +3.0. Month to date is 32.1[-2.6]. February should end at 33.5[-1.8]. All models are snow less throughout their runs. 39*(70%RH) here at 6am. Was 38* just before 6am. 40* at 7am. Back to 39* at 8am. 42* at 9am. 47* by 11am. 48* by 1pm.

An unlikely to verify 18Z GFS. Remember what happen to the -6 progged for Feb. 15th. around the 8th of the month. This was a snow less run. The CMC does have 7" around March 02. EURO is zippo.

The last 6 days of February are averaging 38degs.(32/43), or +1.0. Month to date is 31.8[-2.9]. February should end near 33.1, about -2.1. No Snow till March 03. GFS is snowless. First 11 days of March are averaging 46degs.(38/53),---say +6.0, after a cold start. More like 48-49degs., w/o those first three BN days. 36*(84%RH) here at 6am. 38* by 9am. 39* at 10am. 41* by Noon. 44* by 5pm. 45* by 6pm.

The last 7 days of February are averaging 37degs.(30/43), or Normal. Month to date is 31.6[-3.0]. February should end at 33.0[-2.3]. Other than today's fail, No Snow showing. The start of March looks hotter every run, but for the 2nd. Averaging 46degs. for first 10 days. S.E. Canada is +50F in 15 days. 12Z GFS pulls the Switch-er-Rooni and now says the first 10 days of March will average, not 46degs., but 38*(31/44) Spring according to the JMA is: March AN T, April,May Near Normal T. Spring apparently Wetter Than Normal as it shows BN Sea Level P throughout. 32*(67%RH) here at 6am. 34* by 7am. 35* by 8am. 37* by 9am. 39* by 10am. 35*(88%RH)by Noon---snowing. 36* at 1pm, snow stopped.

The last 8 days of February are averaging 34degs.(29/39), or -3.0. Month to date is 31.6[-2.9]. February should end near 32.3 or about -3.0. The first 9 days of March are averaging 45degs.(37/53), about +5.0 or +6.0, by contrast. The only Snow is about 2" near the 22nd. GFS, is still trying to re-create March 1-2, 1914, however. >957mb to 961mb in NYC. The TeleConnections do not look good for this time: PNA hopelessly -, NAO&EPO are nueutral. Week 2 looks better. The fans that were never there have left the corona virus stands. It is Over. Get ready for the hottest summer in history, because it is unfortunately an 11-Year Solar Cycle Job. 24*(65%RH) here at 6am. 26* by 8am. 27* by 9am. 35* by 2pm. 39* by 4pm. 40* at 4:30pm. 33* by 8pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(26/36), or -5.0. Maybe 1" of snow on the 22nd. then nothing in the City. First 8 days of March averaging 42degs.(35/49) by comparison as of now. The just updated 90-Day Outlooks have Spring at 2.2:1 for AN. The Summer is still a whopping 4.5:1 favorite for AN. EURO TeleC's are all awful for the next 15 days. MJO needs some Geritol. The EURO WEEKLIES are no better than this either. After a Week 1 BN, the next 5 consecutive Weeks are AN. Even making all precipitation into snow at a 10 to 1 ratio, we'd barely reach 6", and most of this precipitation comes when 850mb. T >0C at any rate. It is going to be an Anti-Log setup to produce a big one. An accident. 29*(67%RH) here at 6am. 28* at 6:30am. 33* by Noon. 34* by 1pm. 36* at 4pm. 29* by 10pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/36), or -5.0. 3.2" Snow yesterday---26.4" ? for Feb.---39.0" ? for the Season. Maybe an error on the NWS site. Maybe 2" for today and then only the CMC has anything else in the next 10 days. Think Spring Boys! CI Amusement Rides can open in April at 1/3rd. capacity. They were all shut up tight last season. 31*(99%RH) P 1021.8mb. Was 29* at Midnight. 32* by 9am. 34* by 3pm.

This is the radar back at 12:30pm when snow was heaviest for me. Basically stopped an hour later.

The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(27/36), or -4.0. Today's/Tomorrow's snow just 4"-5" on main models now. EURO has 3 systems totaling 16"(-4" for today's act) in the next 10 days. They just take turns catching the fever. 30*(43%RH) here at 6am. 29* at 6:30am. A very non-stormy 1032.9mb P. Good for the overrunning event predicted at first, then a secondary low. Snowing by 7am. 28* at 7:30am. 30* (80%RH) by 1pm, P 1027.4mb.

WELL, THE GFS PREPARES FOR ANOTHER 50 TO 60 DEGREE ERROR IN THE 850mb T and 2mT for about March 04. Previous run was +7C and 62*, but next run is -28C and 4* at about the same time. I would love to throw the GFS into a clothes drier in my condo with a note around it saying: IF YOU SMELL SMOKE OR SEE FLAMES------D O N O T H I N G At least the snow is holding up. Warning Criteria not met due to time it takes to reach the required 6" (12 hours), according to the excellent explanation in the storm topic area. ***************Spoke too soon. Next run is just 3" and 7" for NAM------18Z the most reliable run of this day or any day LOL.