CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(51/71), or about -1.0. Today is the first day with a normal high of 70. For the next 136 days a high T under 70 is BN. Then comes what I like to call the 80/80 period in NYC. 80 straight days with a normal high of at least 80...........June 16 to September 03. GFS with little rain(0.4"<) over the next 10 days and a muted warmup over the next 15, ie.few 80's. Will be going AN on those next 8 days. 48*(95%RH), here at 6am, overcast, street wet. 51* by 9am. 56* by Noon with breaks in the clouds. Reached 62* at 5pm.

Remember a Trace of Snow here last year 34/48. It was 80+ in 6 days. I did not catch a glimpse, but I did at 7:30am in 1977 on this day, while going to work. It snowed 4" north of the City. Remember a Trace of Snow in 1977 36/44. It was 80+ in 7days, and 90 in 8 days.

The next 8 days are averaging 59degs.(49/68), or about -3.0. 90 on May 19 is back. Vacillating by the day, for days. The problem is the cusp near May 20---otherwise it is all up for the next 8 days(actually starting on the 11th) 47*(80%RH) here at 6am, m. clear+cirrus. 51* by 9am. 53* by 10am. 59* by 2pm. 54* by 4pm, drizzle.

WELL IT IS NOT COMING ON THE GFS OP AGAIN. DOWN BY 30 DEGREES IN TWO RUNS ON THE 19TH. THESE FLIPS KEEP HAPPENING. IS THIS SCIENCE OR SHOULD WE INCORPORATE THESE OUTPUTS SOMEHOW IN OUR LOTTERY GAME CHOICES?

This shows the same event I guess:

The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(49/63), or about -6.0. GFS back with the 90's during Week 3. Some 80's with a 90 thrown in occurring 5/17-23 is all but certain by the Ens. 51*(75%RH) here at 6am , thin overcast. 56* by 11am. Back down to 52* by 1pm. 50* at Midnight.

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or +4.0. Still no warmup till at least after mid-month. EURO still trying to reach 70 over the next 10 days. 52*(48%RH) here at 6am, m clear. 55* by 8am. Reached 64* around 5pm.

GFS says it is all right to be confused. May 18 at 94* on this run, is back to 66*(12Z), which is higher than the 61* of just four runs back:

The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(48/64), or about -5.0. No warm up till mid-month. Rain events have become more iffy. 50*(70%RH) here at 6am, nicely m. clear. 54* by 9am. 57* by Noon. 63* by 3pm. 66* at 4pm. Reached 68* at 4:30pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(48/64), or -5.0. BN should last past mid-month. Less rain showing too, over the next 15 days. 54*(92%RH) here at 6am, FOG<1.0mi., streets wet 57* by Noon, fog mostly gone. Reached 60* at 4:30pm.

Difference between Cape May area and Breezy Point area is 20 degrees at about Noon:

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or -3.0. No 80's showing till near May 18. No 850mb T pops. EXT. ENS. looks boring into first week of June. Yikes. Pockets of warmth in the stratosphere are controlling the show. Why didn't the models know this sooner? 53*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet-----rain ended by 4am. 58* by 9am. 62* by Noon. 69* by 3pm. 71* at 3:30pm. M. Sunny for last 90mins. Back to 62* by 6pm. 59* by 7pm. 55* by 11pm.

WHERE HAVE ALL THE 80's GONE? GONE TO PHASE 1 ----- EVERY ONE.

Better transmit a MAYDAY on the next 10 days of this month. As mentioned earlier, only a small % of the possible sunshine for the next 10 is likely, and most of it consumed on May 06. Solar Summer starts May 08 at this latitude----so let's get to it. Want to worry about wind gusts?-----some 40+mph could happen May 10 as winds flip from S to N. May 10 onced showed 18C 850mb T, but has since mellowed out.

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(53/75) or about +3.0. Storm goes east again on Friday. No 80's upcoming now for two weeks. EURO has same problem with the 70's. 62*(65%RH) here at 6am, overcast(was 68* at midnight). 65* by 9am. 66* at Noon but variable. 63* by 3pm. 60* by 6pm. 57* at 6:30pm, light rain.

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.(53/70), or about +3.0. The 85 for Tues. may not be repeated till May 14, now that the 10th has not shown the 850mb T pop for days. In fact, the extended ensemble looks dull T-wise for the whole month. May 07 storm looks like a false alarm. CMC, NAVGEM are weak and way se. GFS has done its thing and GOne East Youngman. 56*(46%RH) here at 6am, p. clear, haze. (Little T change overnight) 60* by 9am, variable skies. 65* by Noon. 70* by 2pm. 75* at 3pm. still 75* at 4pm. Shot up to 81* by 6pm. 70* by 10pm.

April ended at 54.6[+1.6]. The first 8 days of May are averaging 63degs.(53/72), or about +4.0. Starting May 06, it seems Normal or less, till mid-month. 42*(57%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.(was 49* at midnight) 46* by 9am. 51* by Noon. 54* by 1pm. 60*(31%RH) by 3pm. 62* at 3:30pm. Reached 69*[24%RH) at 6:30pm. 57* by 9pm.

Ad-Free Secondary Group 3,666 posts Location:ConeyIsland Report post Posted 39 minutes ago The last day of April is averaging 61degs.(55/67),or +2.0. Month to date is 54.4[+1.6]. April should end at 54.6[+1.6]. The first 10 days of May keep getting cooler, now averaging 57degs.(50/64), or -2.0. Only 5/04,05 get near 80. May 10 is down over 30 degrees from the last few days. 61*(70%RH) here at 6am, some clouds,blue sky. 64* by Noon. Performed a quick V bet. 2pm-3pm {64-56-64} Then peaked near 6pm at 67*. Been falling since then-----to 52* at 10am. A quick shower occurred near 7:30pm. Winds never really seemed to reach the potential.50mph. ADDS JFK says 50mph WNW gusts to be expected from 3pm to 9pm.

Tomorrow seems real windy with CAA taking place. Fully sunny days look like they will be rare for the next 15 days. Saturday PM may be OK, however. Just missed the heavy stuff by 5 to 30 miles to the south over last hour. This was near 9pm.

The last 2 days of April are averaging 65degs.(58/72), or +6.0. Month to date is 54.0[+1.7]. April should end at 54.7[+1.7]. The first 10 days of May keep getting closer to Normal at 61degs.(53/69), or +2.0. Looks wet, with multiple nuisance rain chances. Next go for 90 is the 10th. Yesterday at 3pm I was at 60* in CI(1500' from the water)while Newark just 15mi. away had 88*. I scored a late day high here of 72* at 9pm. 60*(78%RH) here at 6am, thin broken overcast. 61* at 7am. Variable 59* to 65* from 6am-Noon. 66* at 6pm(El Trabajo del Diablo)

T SUMMARY AS OF 1:15PM. T IN CONEY ISLAND HAS NOT PASSED 65* (1500" FROM WATER). IN FACT, HAS FALLEN BACK TO 62* NOW AT 1:30PM. WENT SHOPPING WHICH IS JUST ANOTHER 1,000' NORTH AND IT FELT MUCH WARMER ALREADY. AT 1PM NEWARK 82, NYC 77, JFK just 66*.

The last 3 days of April are averaging 65degs., or +7.0. Month to date is 53.5[+0.9]. April should end at 54.7[+1.7]. Every model and its Ensemble, plus the National Blend, has 81 to 85 for today. They are going to look stupid if.................. Just 0.3" of rain for Thurs. PM to Fri. PM showing now. The first 10 days of May are averaging 62degs.(53/71), or +3.0. Curiously>>>>>My 1967 NYC Almanac which has the 30-Year Norms as of 1931-60, I assume-----has April up by +1.6{53.0-51.4} since then----but has May as unchanged during the last 50+ years at 62.4. 54*(84%RH) here at 6am, summery blue skies. 58* by 9am. 60* by 10am. 62* by Noon. 65* by 12:30pm. Back down to 61* at 2pm. Down again to 60* at 3pm. Back up to 66* at 4pm(the high so far!) Reached 71* at 6pm. A new high of 72* was reached around 9pm. 67* by 11am. A

The last 4 days of April are averaging 66degs.(55/76), or +8.0. Month to date is 53.4[+1.0]. April should end at 55.1[+2.1]. Tomorrow looks like 80 to 82 if seabreeze does not interfere too soon. The first 10 days of May are averaging 66 degs.(55/77), or about +5.0. May 05 still near 90. Every day is 70+ except May 01. 50*(34%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast. 52* by 9am. 55* by Noon. 57* by 3pm, as T struggles with S breeze, despite full sun. 60* at 4pm. Reached 61* at 5pm-6pm.

The last 5 days of April are averaging 62degs.(53/71), or +4.0 Month to date is 53.5(+1.3). April should finish at 54.9[+1.9]. After our run at 80 on Wed./Thurs. the T on the May 02 could be lower than this AM. Peaks remain at 5/04-05 and 5/10. The first 10 days of May are averaging 65degs.(56/73) about +5 to +6. 42*(54%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 44* by 9am. 47* by 11am. 49* by Noon. 50 at 1pm. 57*(30%RH) at 3pm. 61*(26%RH) at 5pm. Reached 62*(26%RH) 6pm-7pm. 56* by 9pm.

Worst of the rain was over shortly after 3am this morning so few had to deal with it.