CIK62
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Everything posted by CIK62
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The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(72/87), or +1.0. Month to date is 76.3[-1.0]. Should be about 77.2[-0.4] by the 26th. Tropics look dead with the Easterly Waves continuous, but emerging too close to the equator to get any spin. We may still reach 10.5" for the month. July 27---Aug.02 could be on the dry side however. This Wed./Thur. might be rain free too. 73*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast. Reached 84* at 5pm.
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Sun July 11-Mon July 19 Pockets of FF/SVR and a modest heat wave
CIK62 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Caught some rain and minor thunder here, cleared the beach. According mping, that mean looking thing nw of me broke 1" branches off trees in Elizabeth NJ. -
The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 76.0[-1.3]. Should be 77.4[-0.2] by the 25th. 80*(75%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. (was 79* at 5am) 82* by 9am. After the early PM showers, it cleared late and T zoomed to 88* at 5pm.
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EURO WEEKLIES are Hot and Wet for August. EC looks open for tropical action along its whole length. Well, at least it is wet above Cape Hatteras. Could be remnant rains of GOM jobs up the Mississippi River and then eastward.
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The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(72/90), or +3.0. Month to date is 75.4[-1.9]. Should be about 77.2[-0.1] by the 24th. Single TS cell going off NJ coast 50 miles to the south at 8am. Looks like quiet day for TS's otherwise, 92 for a high. I do not know what today's convective T is, however. At any rate the PW for TS's will be running low by the 21st. 77*(88%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 78* at 8am. 80* by 10am. 83* by Noon. 84* at 12:30pm. 90* at 5pm. 86*(70%RH)here at 9pm and steamy. Waiting for Fireworks. Fireworks went off late and ended after 10pm, still 86* but RH down to 65%
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The real reason may be Con Ed's desire to declare "Power Conservation" requests continuously by using an expected 3 consecutive days as the criteria. Back in the 60's heatwaves were 5-Straight 90's around these parts. With fewer AC's in use, Con Ed could handle it. Naturally 3 straight days would occur more often than 5 days. Con Ed got the NWS (or was it still the Weather Bureau?) to go along with this reduction to 3 days by the 70's. Dallas must use 3 or 5 expected 100's in a row, lest their whole summer would be a HW etc..
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Today's more reasonable GFS is averaging 80degs.(72/89) or +2.0 for the next 8 days. Month to date is 74.9[-2.3]. Should be 76.8[-0.8] by the 23rd. 75*(85%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue, scuzzy sky. 78* at 9am. 80* by 11am. 85* at 4pm.
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The GFS has checked itself into a CI Funhouse and is unavailable.......... Seriously it has 10 straight 90's and has brought back the rains to boot. EURO/CMC have 0 90's between them. Please note the 500mb heights peaked yesterday for the next 7 days. They will pop for a day on the weekend and range +1.3 to +2.3 sd., so 90's with favorable conditions otherwise...... is possible. So for fun, the next 8 days are averaging 85degs.(75/95), or +7. Month to date is 74.7[-2.5]. Should be 78.6[+1.1] by the 22nd. Reached 85* at 6pm, after a miss by the TS 71*(96%RH) here at 6am., scuzzy look. Reached 85* at 6pm, after a miss by the TS earlier. GFS=====GoodForSh_t!
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GFS dropping most of the upcoming rains and turning on the heat instead. Have to figure that would happen because we are close to being the wettest ever July with 18 days to go.
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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.[73/88], or +2.0. Month to date is 75.0[-2.0]. Should be 77.0[-0.4] by the 21st. EURO/CMC have 1 90 between them for the next 10 days. The GFS has 5.{06Z has 7} {12z has 8} All keep nuisance rains or worse, till about the 19th/20th, in the mix. 71*(96%RH), here at 6am---fog and misty rain. 70* at 7am.
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I mostly missed out on this and got some tail end rain. For the record, this was 2:30AM today:
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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(73/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 74.7[-2.3]. Should be about 76.9[-0.5] by the 20th. Rain today by 3pm? EURO with no 90's for the next 10 days but does have 3". GFS has 4 90's, and less than 2". CI was lost in a clammy fog last evening. 73*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 78* by 9am. 83* by Noon. 84*(81%RH) at 1pm. ---Feels like 94*
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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 74.8[-2.2]. Should be 77.2[-0.3] by the 19th. Precipitable water vectors keep clouds/some rain nearby till the 15th., I think. 72*(95%RH),here at 6am, overcast.
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The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(72/86), or +1.0. Month to date is 74.8[-2.0]. Should be 76.8[-0.6] by the 18th. Clouds, new rains keeping T lower than it could be. 72*(90%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, scattered thin clouds.
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NO WARNING BECAUSE R2D2 AUTOMATON VOICES {KWO-35} DO NOT WORK AFTER DARK. lol. Seriously, this cell just skipped by to my north with a little rain here and the fireworks went off with the Amusement Area mostly empty.
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Despite this: The first regular Friday Night Fireworks in Coney Island since Covid started---just concluded {9:42pm} Too bad it was raining and few people saw it. For July 04, a few days ago, they were luckier.
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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/89), or +2.0. Month to date is 74.4[-2.3]. Should be about 77.2[-0.2] by the 17th. 73*(97%RH) here at 6am, Rain as 'Elsa' passes. 29.70". Last band of rain just went by {9am}with a pickup of the wind from near Zero mph to breezy. 72*, still 29.70".
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SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021
CIK62 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Fore-taste Rains? -
The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(72/90), or +3.0. Unbelievable HW to start July 14? Scaping 100 for over a week? Expect power failures deluxe. This is only a GFS Special Event right now. It has no sponsors. 77*(83%RH) here at 6am., hazy blue, scattered clouds.
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AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING. TOO BAD WE STARTED THE MONTH WITH A 27 DEGREE DEFICIT AFTER JUST 5 DAYS. THIS LOOKS LIKE RECORD MATERIAL. The s.d. in July is about 1.3 degrees, and 4s.d. units would give the month first place.
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Hotter Than a Fireman's Helmet and meaner than a Battalion Chief's Battle Axe Wife?????????????????????? It's the GFS folks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90) or +3.0. We should be back near Normal for the month by the 16th. 73*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. Small chance of repeating yesterday's slow moving cell totals. At any rate these will come late in the day again. Elsa remnants will be nearby early Friday morning. The EURO has 100% Probability of > 39mph gusts, say from CI into Nassau County.
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SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021
CIK62 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Moving to the se. Gonna do the splitso and miss the City? Decent winds here in CI. Well at least the T went from 91 to 73. -
The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/89),or +3.0 73*(85%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, some thin clouds. 85* by 1pm. CMC has the most rain from Elsa, but it is just an inch. Rain today should come late ie. after beach hours. Hottest part of summer seems to be ready to live up to its reputation at +4.0----July 13-21, 82(73/91)
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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90), or +3.0. 69*(89%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.
