CIK62

The last 6 days of August are averaging 83degs.(75/92), or +11. Month to date is 77.3[+0.9]. Would end at 78.4[+2.4]. More likely 77.4. 78*(80%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 80* at 9am. 84*(75%RH) at Noon. Fell back to 83*, now back to 84*(80%RH) at 3pm. Low haze, fog and sea breeze. Only 87* here yesterday. GFS keeps moving putative IDA to the east,{A N.O. Cat. 3 Job?}and now we can get some rain next Wed./Thurs. from leftovers. The holiday period would then be nice and BN. btw. Katrina was 902mb, 99L gets to 930mb maybe? It has to pass Cuba/Yucatan successfully for this to happen.

Firstly, the GFSx has the T at just 80 tops---on Sat/Sun. with a strong E/SE wind. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 8/25/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01|THU CLIMO N/X 76 93| 76 91| 69 72| 66 82| 71 82| 72 88| 66 77| 63 64 80 TMP 78 85| 79 82| 72 66| 68 75| 73 77| 75 79| 68 70| 65 DPT 69 69| 71 71| 67 66| 67 69| 69 67| 67 61| 58 59| 57 CLD CL PC| CL PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC| PC OV| OV WND 2 2| 2 2| 9 11| 7 5| 3 4| 2 4| 4 9| 7 P12 1 2| 12 34| 72 72| 40 23| 47 42| 26 18| 28 36| 33999999 P24 2| 42| 82| 40| 62| 34| 50| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 4 4| 1 0| 1 2| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 5| 0| 3| 0| | T12 0 15| 10 32| 34 22| 5 12| 19 28| 14 11| 11 11| 6 T24 | 18 | 58 | 23 | 32 | 36 | 18 | 17 Here is the potential IDA after going from 1000mb to the 968mb shown---in 48 hours. The GFS from which this model gets its initiation, has kicked this storm's track around for two days. At any rate, looks like a late developer and then really goes nowhere when inland. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2021082512-invest99l/slp42.png

The last 7 days of August are averaging 82degs.(74/90), or +10. Month to date is 77.1[+0.6]. August would end at 78.2[+2.2], more likely 77.1. I reached 93 yesterday. 77*(75%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 80* by 9am. 81* at 10am. 82* by Noon 84* at 1pm. 86*(61%RH) at 3pm. only 87* with a HI =94* at 4pm.

How it looked at 4:15PM: I have 93*(40%RH) at 5pm. My high for the season is still 95 on August 12, near 6pm.

The last 8 days of August are averaging 84degs.(75/93), or +11. Month to date is 77.0[+0.4]. August would end at 78.8[+2.8], but more likely near 77.1[+1.1]. 75*(92%RH) here at 6am, hazy. 78* by 9am. 80* at 10am. 82* at 11am. 83*(61%RH) at Noon. 88*(50%RH) at 3pm 90*(45%RH) at 4pm. 91*(42%RH) at 4:15pm. 92*(42%RH) at 4:30pm. 93*(40%RH) at 5pm.

Quick heavy shower for me in CI, 2:40-2:50PM. Practically a sun shower.

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs. (73/91), or +9. Month to date is 77.0[+0.4]. Would be 78.4[+2.3] by the 31st. No more rain this summer after this PM?. 72*(99%RH) here at 6am., Rain. 82*(84%RH) at 4pm. 84* at 5pm. Reached 87*(65%RH) at 6pm.

MOST RECENT DATA: 10pm edt 22-AUG-21 NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY ( 89') LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W STA TMP DP RH WD WS G PRS ALT PCPN CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP VIS WX NYC 5pm 71 70 96 280 3 085 2981 1.49 11 BKN 48 BKN 75 OVC 1 1/4 RF 6pm 71 69 93 000 4 083 2980 8 SCT 13 BKN 80 OVC 2 RF 1820 71 69 93 2981 7 BKN 12 OVC 3 R-F 1831 71 69 93 000 4 2980 9 SCT 15 OVC 4 R-F 1836 71 69 93 000 3 2981 9 BKN 17 OVC 4 RF 1848 72 70 93 000 4 2981 12 BKN 110 BKN HI ??? 5 R-F 7pm 71 69 93 000 5 086 2981 12 SCT 110 OVC 5 R-F 8pm 70 68 93 087 2982 1.83 90 SCT 110 BKN 240eOVC 3 R-F 9pm 71 69 93 230 3 088 2982 120 SCT 250eOVC 3 R-F 10pm 71 69 93 230 4 089 2982 28 SCT 37 BKN 70 OVC 8 NYC 6 temps: high= 72 at 1848 low= 70 at 8pm mean= 70.8 precip= 1.83 + 4.45 = 6.28" for the last 2 days thru 8pm. btw: What caused this deluge in August 2011? It is not Irene. That was at the end of the month. https://weatherinnyc.blogspot.com/2011/08/aug-14-2011-storm-updates.html

The next 8 days are averaging 83degs.(75/92), or +10. GFS says 2" more today, the EURO says 5". GFS had virtually none for yesterday. Rain ratios of 110:1 at nearby stations. NYC. 4.45" Bridgeport. 0.04"-----so I will not recommend extinction for the GFS. HW still its theme, however. 74*(99%RH) here at 6am, overcast, wet streets. P = 1011mb.

Here it comes: The GFS could be all WET !!! Raining in CI.

All the GFS is interested in is Girls, well Hot-Ones anyway . Its only care is the all 90+ week coming up: Dry Slots Us, If this were a Nor'er we could make about 1 snowball from this.

The Creeping Death: This will have to intensify and/or slow down to give 6". I am cloudy,calm, 81*(75%RH), P = 1014mb. here at 1pm. EURO is down an inch to 3"+, the GFS has practically nothing.

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(73/90), or +7. 75*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue, some scattered clouds, P = 1014mb. 80*(82%RH) at Noon, P = 1015mb. EURO has 12× more rain than the GFS for TS Henri around here. NYC is in the 100% Prob. for TS winds on the EURO too........but at 9am.: Storm looks crummy as the 500mb. L is to the s.e. and the 850mb L is to the n. Not at all vertically stacked like a PB Bunny lol. OTS?

Separately: Eye should cross LI at 72.4 in about 45 hours. This would be near Southampton. H.W. is already up for the area. Forecast Track Time of Latest Forecast: 2021-08-20 18:00 Forecast Hour Latitude Longitude Intensity 0 30.8 286.2 60 12 32.8 286.7 65 24 35.8 287.7 75 36 38.9 288.1 75 48 40.8 287.6 65 72 42.9 287.4 30 96 43.8 291.1 25 120 0.0 0.0 0

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(76/92), or +10. GFS going out of August, Strong and Wrong. Month to date is 77.1[+0.4]. Would be 79.2[+3.0] by the 30th. More likely would be 78.0[+1.8]. 850mb T's are still 16C---21C through the 28th. Then quick changes leading to a 9/05 crash{first 40's?} 76*(80%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast. 80* at 10am. Reached 85*(63%RH) at 5pm. I gave Newark competion yesterday with 90*[55%RH] at 5pm-6pm. HMON, HWRF models have Henri croaking over NYC---LI (on Sunday) and an ordinary L then proceeding north.

Wave Height outlook not very impressive on the EURO here. It peaks at 10', 24 hours after this near Maine coast:

Henri figures to be just outside the 40N. 70W Benchmark on Sunday AM. Remember a stronger system would be steered by winds much higher up in the atmosphere and could alter this path. Follow path of the rain from run to run is best way to see track changes. 48 hours ago it was way east. It came west but lost some in the last 24hrs. Compare:

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(76/92), or +10. 77*(95%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast, streets wet. 82* by 1pm. 87*(64%RH) at 5pm HI = 95. 90* here at 6pm (55%RH) for a HI =97. Henri further east by 100 miles at least on the GFS.

General Info, Just in Case............. Coney Island High Tide on Sunday PM is +6.05' at 8:38pm. Too similar to Sandy timing. Eke! JB is keen on this. SD is not even cautious. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2021081806/slp41.png

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(75/90), or +7. 850mb T stays between 16C---21C all the way to the 28th. 75*(90%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 81*(83%RH) by 2pm, hazy sun? We may get more rain from Henri than Fred's leftovers. Henri has the look of a Trapped Animal at 120hrs.-----but Best Path is still given as 200 miles further east.

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs(74/85), or +4. 74*(81%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 81* by 4pm. GFS spreading <1" over the next 10 days, a drop at a time. Really more clouds than sun for a week, with rain chances 50% to 70%{versus a normal 30%} each day. Current portion of Hurricane Season is a flop. Henri can be watched for the next 84hrs., but Fred takes him away.

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(73/84), or +4. T's down---but due to clouds and unknown amounts of rain during the next 7 days. Expect limited sun. Fred stronger into Florida PH. Grace going west into Mexico? Henri dead before birth? 73*(70%RH) here at 6am, overcast. Reached 80* about 5pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(74/87), or +5. GFS has 8/21-27 penciled in for all 90's. Grace not following Fred and hits Texas instead, in a week. Last 3 days here were 95, 88, 92. 73*(50%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 79* by Noon. Reached 84* around 5:30pm.

Central Park screwed up T again at 87* for 4pm. With a W wind (250) everywhere, even I am at 91* for 4pm. 92*(50%RH) at 4:30pm. MOST RECENT DATA: 4pm edt 14-AUG-21 NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY ( 89') LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W STA TMP DP RH WD WS G PRS ALT PCPN CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP VIS WX NYC 11am 83 68 60 000 4 179 3009 CLR 10 12pm 87 67 50 000 0 179 3009 130eSCT 10 1pm 86 68 54 000 3 177 3008 130eBKN 10 2pm 85 68 56 000 6 177 3008 130eBKN 10 3pm 86 69 56 175 3008 130eSCT 10 4pm 87 69 54 171 3007 LO CLR HI ??? 10 NYC 6 temps: high= 87 at 12pm low= 83 at 11am mean= 85.6 precip= 0.00

What is this? An Eight Ave./42nd Street Quickie? LOL