CIK62

LBSF, I believe you are right about the potential force of the swells that will reach us. My reference is always CI, which is usually protected. The Swell Period should peak at 18secs. I have played around in the shallow surf as these swells arrive in CI, but would not try it at the NJ coast or even the open Rockaways. It is the freak and rogue swells that are the most fun but the most dangerous too. You can play and dodge with them for two minutes and then it goes calm-----till a wall of water appears from nowhere 100 yards off shore. The March 1962 Northeaster is a great example of a 1000 mile long E-W fetch into the Jersey shore. There were seven consecutive high tides involved. CI had some flooding then but Sandy had all such storms beat in our lifetime, I would say. Because of Hurricane Donna and this Northeaster, the Army Corp of Engineers had to preform a Beach Nourishment Program throughout our area in 1962-64. The CI beaches wound up 100' or so wider. In 1994 the elevation of the beached was raised 5' to 8' in another BNP, but Sandy did not care Lol.

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/82), or +3. Basically the next 10 days are near Normal or AN. Week 3 looks BN. ***The GEFS/GFS could not be more different late. Larry gives Bermuda a scare Thursday PM, but misses by about 150mi. It is just Cat. 1 then. We get minor? swells here on Thurs./Fri. and a 700mi. miss. 68*(87%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds, some blue. 67* at 7am. 70* at 9am. Reached 77* yesterday.

LIGHTS ON, LIGHTS OUT?

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(67/83), or +4. GFS changes again, and has clouds only for the rest of Holiday. GFS has 13 of the next 16 days at AN. Any >80 is AN from now on. Reached 77* at 4pm. Reached 78* here yesterday. 64*(75%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast, breaks. 72* by Noon.

The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(65/81), or +2. IDA's total rain was: 7.13" + 0.10" = 7.23", Sept. 1-2. 61*(77%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 63* by 9am. 68* by Noon. 72* by 2pm, but p. cloudy. Reached 78* at 5pm. 9/7-9/18 might be able to slip in a 90 degree day. Any Holiday rains should be mostly Sunday night?, just daytime clouds.

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/81), or +1. Through midnight Central Park had 7.13". 62*(82%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast, blue patches. P=1007.8mb. Got to about 999.5mb. 64* at 9am. 66* at 10am. 69* at Noon. 71* at 1pm. Reached 77* from 5pm-7pm.

Notify NYC - Tornado Watch - NYC  This message was moved to the Junk Email folder because you only trust email from senders in your Safe senders list. It's not junk | Show blocked content  This message was sent with High importance. This message was moved to the Junk Email folder because you only trust email from senders in your Safe senders list. This message was sent with High importance. Notify NYC <[email protected]> Wed 9/1/2021 7:12 PM Notification issued 09-01-2021 at 7:11 PM. The National Weather Service has issued the following: What: Tornado Watch Where: NYC When: Until 1:00 AM on 9/2 Hazards: Conditions are favorable for a tornado to form. Tornadoes can cause flying debris, turn unsecured objects into projectiles, and cause power outages. Preparedness Actions: Exercise caution when walking, biking, or driving. Before an Outage -Charge cell phones -Gather supplies -Turn refrigerators/freezers to a colder setting During an Outage -Stay clear of downed power lines -Turn off all appliances -Keep refrigerator/freezer doors closed to prevent food spoilage -Do not use generators indoors -If you have a disability/access needs, or use life sustaining equipment (LSE) and need immediate assistance, dial 911. For the latest weather info: www.weather.gov/okx.

Current Outlooks for the rain: ICON 1.5", EURO/GFS 2.5", NAM 3.0", SREF 5,0", CMC 6.0". At 3:10pm................

The first 8 days of September are averaging 72degs.(65/80), or about Normal. August ended at 77.5[+1.4]. In a switcheroo, the CMC =7", EURO =3", GFS =2" for the IDA remnants today and tomorrow. Strong S winds, say 9pm-3am. 74*(88%RH) here at 6am, gloomy. 72*{P=1010mb} at 8am. 73*{P=1000.0mb} at 8pm. 66* at 11pm. P has started back up.

About yesterday's lightning tragedy at Seaside Heights, NJ: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9941703/Lightning-strike-Jersey-Shore-kills-lifeguard-injures-7.html?ito=push-notification&ci=Ss9M9o8DSk&si=32052645&xi=5a2c9b28-ef82-418e-b681-0ce62b30c195&ai=9941703

The last day of August is averaging 81degs.(74/88),or +9. Month to date is 77.5[+1.4]. August should end at 77.6[+1.4]. The Summer(JJA) should end at 75.9[+0.7]. IDA remnants: CMC 2", GFS 5", EURO 6" from Wed. AM to Thurs. PM. Reached 85 here yesterday at 5pm. 75*(90%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast. 80* by 10am. 83* by Noon. 86* by 2pm. 87* at 3:30pm.

Just a little cell to boot apparently: Meanwhile all the cells missed the Coney Island area.

First week of September 66/81 = 73, or a little AN.

The last 2 days of August are averaging 81degs.(74/88), or +9. Month to date is 77.5[+1.3]. Would end at 78.2[+2.0] More likely 78.0. IDA leftovers 1" to 4". Then a sunny, BN holiday weekend---up to L.D. Yesterday 68-77 here. 72*(99%RH) here at 6am, FOG<0.1mile. 73* at 8am Fog<2.0miles. Fog is variable. 77* at Noon, hazy sun. 80* at 1pm. 82* at 4pm. Reached 85* at 5pm.

New Orleans as a functioning city has been eliminated for at least 30 days. No power (unless Entergy can reroute power) for an unknown time. Also they are suffering low water pressure. Ironically the revamped levee system held up. Multiple large vessels got loose and are blocking the Mississippi River traffic too. Going to affect the economy with more shortages and inflation. Stocks will RISE more with the additional money printing engendered here. The eye has nearly filled in:

NWS Pooh-Poohing any real effects for us from IDA. No mention of wind potentials, in fact did not mention the rain on Wed. would be from IDA. At any rate here is the current N.O. radar:

STILL SOME WIND FIELD INVOLVEMENT FOR US ON EARLY THURS AND PM PERIOD?

The last 3 days of August are averaging 79degs.(73/86), or +8. Still 3"-6" from IDA remnants. Month to date is 77.7[+1.4]. August would end at 77.8[+1.8]. More likely at 77.5. 68*(80RH%) here at 6am, overcast.

THIS IS THE 12Z EURO FOR NYC: Winds may be stronger just off shore via the graphic output, not shown. I am not sure of the definition of Wind Swath, but IDA seems to regenerate some as it nears our coastal area.

THIS IS FOR NEW ORLEANS: About the same as yesterday.

The last 4 days of August are averaging 79degs.(73/85), or +8. IDA remnants give 3" to 5" on Wed./Thurs. But CMC goes south of us with little rain. Month to date is 77.8[+1.4]. August would end at 78.0[+2.0], but more likely at 77.5. Was 81* at Midnite. 75*(93%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet. 73*, rain at 7am. Down to 69* at 6pm!

New Orleans and IDA: latest

The last 5 days of August are averaging 81degs.(74/81), or +9. Super cooldown starting Sept. 02? The always too warm GFS is bigtime BN, w/o adjustment. Month to date is 77.6[+1.2]. * August would end at 78.2[+2.2], but more likely just where it is. *New Site. NWS more interested in appearances than correcting NYC ASOS equipment's setting and site. Lol. Only reached 85 here yesterday. 78*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy. 82* by 9am. 85* at 10am.(really bootin' it) 87* at 11am. Reached 90*(60%RH) at 2:30pm. btw. Anyone know why the Sub_X( sub-normal perhaps) Model is engaged in predicting the T's for Jan.-1960???!!!

Which is Which here: