CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(64/75), or +10. GFS is basically dry for the next 10 days and 70 or better everyday. EURO has rain on both weekends. Today: 73-78, wind variable, p. cloudy or p. sunny. Reached 72 here yesterday. 63*(92%RH) here at 6am. 67* at 9am. 70* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. 76* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 4:30pm. 71* at 6am

The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(64/75), or +8 GFS/EURO continue 'Kaboola' dance with the precip.---back on the GFS, off on the EURO---for next 10 days. Reached 69 here yesterday, then quickly fell back. Today: 71-75, winds ne+variable, m. cloudy, no rain. As an aside-----the EURO has 6 straight 80's in Chicago!, incoming. 63*(85%RH) here at 6am. 65* at 9am. 66* at Noon. 69* at 1pm. 70* at 2pm. Reached 72* at 4pm, with a little sun.

THE NEXT 30 WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT 46 WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT.................................................................. FROM EURO WEEKLIES------THE CONTROL IS IDENTICAL, I AM AFRAID:

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.(62/74), or +4. GFS is dry again for the next 10. EURO wet again starting Saturday. All travelling 5 day periods have AN T's through the 20th., for all but the PacNW. Reached 77! here yesterday. Today: 67-71, cloudy, e. wind, drizzle? 61*(96%RH) here at 6am, overcast, street wet. 62* at 9am. 66* at Noon. 68* at 12:30pm, some breaks in the clouds. 69* at 1pm. 68* at 2pm. 66* at 4pm.

On the way to a monthly record? 62/75 = 68 >>> +8.

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.(63/71), or +4. GFS now with more rain than EURO over the next 10 days. TS action on the 11th?---highs went from 80's to 60's.>>>giggles. Reached 74 here yesterday. Today: Overcast, ne. wind, on/off rain-maybe 0.25", 70-73. 69*(92%RH) here at 6am. 71* at 9am. 74* at 11am. 75* at Noon(85%RH) Back to 72* at 1pm. Hey! back to 75* at 2pm + some sun which should kick off a shower at least. Reached 77* at 4:30pm. Raining by 5pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(64/75), or +6. EURO still with 3x the rain of the GFS for the upcoming week, BUT---both are down by a factor of 3 on the totals. Reached 76* here yesterday. Today: Changing conditions with sun to clouds, winds w. then s. then e. after sunset. 75-79. Rain after 9pm. 61*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 62*/63* variable + low fog going in and out, at 8am. Just 68* at Noon. 70* at 1pm. 73* at 3pm. 74* at 4pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(64/76), or +7. Kiss BN T's goodbye for two weeks. EURO still with 3x the rain of the GFS each run, for the next 10 days. Reached 70 here yesterday. Today: 72-76, w. wind, m. sunny. 57*(72%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-cirrus. 60* at 9am. 68* at Noon. 70* at 1pm. 72* at 3pm. Reached 76* at 4:30pm.

Still mostly 70's on the GEFS and only 1.5"(not shown) over the next 16 days:

September ended at 70.3[+1.1]. Second half was +2.2, since we were Normal after 15 days. btw: My 1968 NYC Almanac has the 30-Year Normal att. as 68.5 for September. So up 0.7 in 60 years, 1945-2005 midpoints. Reached 67* here yesterday. The first 8 days of October are averaging 69degs.(62/77), or +5. 53*(76%RH) here at 6am. 60* at 11am. 68* at 3pm. Reached 70* at 4:30pm. Today: 67-70,wind nw. to w., m. sunny.

GEFS' OUTLOOK FOR FIRST 15 DAYS OF OCTOBER. A good +4 or +5. Precipitation not shown is BN at 1.5". And look at this waste of High T's, m. cloudy all the way, and little rain for the trouble. Actually cloudy and chance of rain till the 12th. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 9/30/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07|FRI CLIMO N/X 52 68| 57 77| 62 76| 63 73| 64 75| 66 77| 64 78| 62 52 68 TMP 53 64| 59 70| 64 67| 65 66| 66 69| 68 69| 66 71| 63 DPT 40 41| 48 53| 54 57| 60 62| 63 60| 61 59| 60 60| 56 CLD CL CL| CL CL| CL PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 6 4| 4 5| 3 3| 3 7| 7 5| 3 4| 5 6| 10 P12 4 1| 1 4| 2 16| 50 34| 50 27| 21 27| 30 28| 35999999 P24 4| 4| 16| 58| 55| 38| 42| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 1 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 1| 1| 0| | T12 1 0| 2 0| 1 1| 7 5| 12 8| 3 3| 3 3| 2 T24 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 7 PZP 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 PRS 0 0| 0 1| 1 0| 0 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 TYP R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R SNW 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

The last day of September is averaging 64degs.(59/69), or -1. Month to date is 70.7[+1.3]. September should end at 70.1[+0.9] 60*(58%RH) here at 6am. 59* at 7am. Still 59* at 9am. 62* at Noon. 65* at 2pm. Reached 67* at 4pm. 62* at 9pm. Today: 65-70, nw. wind, p. cloudy. Coming rain reduced on GFS and T's way up. Week 1 Oct. 68[60/77], +4. EURO still has days of rain.

The last two days of September are averaging 63degs.(56/70), or -2. Month to date is 71.0[1.4]. September will end at 70.4[+1.2] September reached 10.03". Reached 75* here yesterday in an up/down day. First 10 days of October looking somewhat AN, but w/o any breakouts either way..... say 57/68 average for the period, versus 54/67, Normal. Today: 66-71, nw. wind, p. cloudy. 56*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. After 3hrs. at 56*, 57* at 9am. 60* by 10am. 62* at Noon. 64* at 1pm. 67* at 3pm. Reached 68* at 3:30pm.

Moving W to E

The last 3 days of September are averaging 65degs.(58/71), or Normal. Month to date is 71.2[1.4]. September should end at 70.6[+1.2]. Reached 80 here yesterday. First two weeks of October look boring w/o spectacular rains, or T's.......50/70 is the range, or +2. Today: 73-76, w. to n. wind, Rain possible 1pm onward. 66*(80%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast. 67* at 7am. 69* at 9am. 72* at 11am. 68* at Noon, with rain and a little thunder during the last hour. Went back up and reached 75* at 4:30pm.

The last 4 days of September are averaging 67degs.(61/73), or +2. Month to date is 71.2[+1.2]. September should end at 70.6[+1.4]. Reached 74* here yesterday. Today: 76-80, w. wind, p. sunny. 62*(63%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 64* at 9am. 69* at Noon. 71* at 1pm. 77* at 3pm. 78* at 4pm. 79* at 4:30pm. Reached 80* at 5pm.

The last 5 days of September are averaging 67(60/75), or +2. Month to date is 71.4[+1.2]. September should end near 70.7[+1.5]. Today: 72-77, w.,nw. wind-gusty, p. sunny. Reached 77* here yesterday. Oct. 3-10 looking continuously gusty here. Bermuda wiped out next Sat. PM? 62*(76%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 64* at 9am. 67* at Noon. 68* at 1pm. 70* at 2pm. 73* at 4pm. Reached 74* at 5:30pm.

What is going on here on the EURO? The area that is hanging back from SAM 'hangs on' for at least 72 hours of 40mph gusts{from N} near here, starting at 168hrs.(not shown) The GFS and CMC have this is in a minor way only.

The last 6 days of September are averaging 67degs.(60/75), or +2. Month to date is 71.7[1+4]. September should end near 70.8[+1.6]. Reached 76* here yesterday. Today: 73-76, variable wind, some clouds late. 9/27-10/03....N, BN. 10/04-11+....AN 61*(76%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 65* at 9am. 67* at 10am. 70* at Noon 73* at 3pm. 76* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 4:30pm.

SAM update: The CMC comes closest to us as it hits in Maine. EURO is similar till very end of its run and only scrapes Maine. GFS is way out to sea at Maine's latitude.

The last 7 days of September are averaging 68degs.(60/77) or +3 Month to date is 72.0[+1.5]. September should end at 71.1[+1.9] 59*(88%RH) here at 6am, cloudy, drizzle. 60* at 7am with clearing skies. 67* at Noon. 71* at 3pm 73* at 4pm. 74* at 4:30pm. Latest GFS has no more rain this month---previous run had 0.3". SAM, around Oct. 03, seems most trapped on the GFS, but it still escapes. The CMC blocks it--- but it goes into the SE US. Today. 68-73, w. wind., some sun by the PM,

Action for me in a matter of minutes:

What is your pleasure sir?: HRRR's 0.6"-1.0" GFS 0.6" SREF 1.0" CMC 1.2" EURO 1.5" NAM 1.5 to 2.0"

The last 8 days of September are averaging 71degs.(64/78), or +5. Month to date is 72.0[+1.3]. September could end near 71.7[+2.5]. 73*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 75*(92%(RH) at 9am. 77*(87%RH) at Noon. Reached 78* at 2pm. Rain got here about 6pm. Reached 79 here yesterday. Today. 75-78, 1" to 2", s. wind to e. + gusty.

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(66/79), or +6. Month to date is 71.8[+0.9]. Could be 71.9[+2.2] by the 30th. Reached 79* here yesterday. 72*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast, scuzzy. 75* at Noon. 76* at 1pm. 78* at 3pm. Reached 79* at 5pm. Today 76-80,se. wind, m. cloudy.